Marco Arpagaus 5 th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 26-28.3.2007

1. D-PHASE:Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus5th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 26-28.3.2007

2. Outline • Quick review of D-PHASE • Visualisation Platform and Data Archive • More on atmospheric models • list of output variables • model products • alerts • Dry-runs • Timetable • Organisation

3. Distributed real-time end-to-end forecasting system

4. End-to-end forecasting system

5. Atmospheric models: ensembles • COSMO-LEPS (COSMO) • 10 km; +132h; COSMO-LEPS EFI (MeteoSwiss) • MOGREPS (Met Office, United Kingdom) • 25 km; +54h • SREPS (INM, Spain) • 27 km, +72h • COSMO-SREPS (COSMO) • 10 km, +72h • PEPS (SRNWP) • 7 km, +42h • micro-PEPS (DWD for D-PHASE) • 2 km; +18h

6. End-to-end forecasting system

7. Atmospheric models: high resolution • MM5 (University of Hohenheim) • 2 km (?); +24h (?) • COSMO-models (COSMO) • 2.2 km; +18h • 2.8 km; +30h, +48h, +21h • AROME (Météo-France) • 4 km (output grid); +30h • MOLOCH (ISAC-CNR, Italy) • 2.2 km; +39h • GEM-LAM (EC, Canada) • 2.5 km; +24h • MOLOCH, MM5, and WRF outside of COPS domain • ALADIN and QBOLAM at coarser resolution

8. End-to-end forecasting system

9. Hydrological catchments

10. End-to-end forecasting system QUALITY ASSESSED

11. Common (centralised) platforms Visualisation Platform (VP): • to visualise (display)all products and all alerts;main source of information for forecasters and end users (and possibly also useful for COPS mission planning team) • interface for (some of) the users to submit their feedback on the available products and alerts, respectively • realised by Next Generation Software (Salzburg) • www.d-phase.info

12. Σ03h max Σ72h Σ48h Σ24h Σ06h Σ12h VP, level 1: Alpine region select forecast range select accumulation time days 3 - 5 today tomorrow go to: model products monitoring products feedback

13. Σ12h max Σ72h Σ48h Σ03h Σ24h Σ06h VP, level 2: Alpine sub-region, country select forecast range select accumulation time days 3 - 5 today tomorrow forecaster 2 det model 4 ensemble 3 44% 57% go to: model products nowcasting products monitoring products feedback

14. VP, level 3-a: target area select forecast range days 3 - 5 today & tomorrow now Tue 16 Wed 17 00 00 12 00 12 max: 31mm / 03h on Tue 16.10 at 21 UTC (mean: 22mm / 03h; min: 1mm / 03h) 58% 63% 36% 24% S 03h ensemble system 3 IT: 15.10 12 UTC max: 53mm / 06h on Tue 16.10 at 21 UTC(mean: 38 mm / 06h; min: 12mm / 06h) 64% 88% 70% 52% S 06h max: 80mm / 12h on Wed 17.10 at 03 UTC(mean: 54mm / 12h; min: 21mm / 12h) 38% 44% 50% 59% 54% 78% S 12h max: 96mm / 24h on Wed 17.10 at 06 UTC(mean: 68mm / 24h; min: 31mm / 24h) 52% 46% 38% 46% S 24h max: 55mm / 03h on Tue 16.10 at 15 UTC S 03h deterministic model 4 IT: 16.10 03 UTC max: 61mm / 06h on Tue 16.10 at 16 UTC S 06h max: 61mm / 12h on Tue 17.10 at 16 UTC S 12h S 24h max: 61mm / 24h on Tue 17.10 at 16 UTC max: 20mm / 03h on Tue 16.10 at 16 UTC S 03h deterministic model 7 IT: 16.10 00 UTC max: 20mm / 06h on Tue 16.10 at 16 UTC S 06h S 12h S 24h show 2D field show meteogram show thresholds go to: model products nowcasting products monitoring products feedback example for today & tomorrow differences for days 3 – 5: bins of 6 hrs (rather than 3/1) & 12/24/48/72 hrs sums (rather than 03/06/12/24)

15. Common (centralised) platforms Data Archive (DA) • to archive all data, alerts, and feedbacks;mainlyfor verification purposes • also stores all COPS and GOP data • physically based at the MPI in Hamburg THANKS!

16. More on atmospheric models • list of output variables • final version of document • model products • specification document should be finalised as soon as possible; waiting for feedback from COPS • generation of atmospheric model products ('quicklooks') with a common GrADS script kindly provided by COPS (Matthias Grzeschik and Hans-Stefan Bauer, University of Hohenheim) • display of model products on D-PHASE Visualisation Platform as well as at COPS OC • alerts THANKS!

17. Dry-runs: 26 February – 2 March 2007 • Pilot users only: CLEPS/Montani, MOGREPS/Robertson, MM5/Bauer, COSMOCH2/Ament, LAMI7/Cesari, ISACMOL/Davolio, DIMOSOP/Ranzi, and PREVAH/Jaun&Zappa. • Very useful: • it triggered a lot of activities; • we all realised that there still is a lot to be done; • it showed us that our aim of a state-of-the-art distributed end-to-end forecasting system is realistic; • it confirmed that D-PHASE indeed has the potential to become a very successful demonstration project; • all in all a good motivation for the time (and work!) ahead.

18. Dry-runs: 26 February – 2 March 2007 • Visualisation Platform (VP): • first version of level 1 running • xml upload and visualisation successful • display of model products not yet available (as are a few other things) • VP will remain online, also in between the dry-runs:http://www.d-phase.info (password-protection will be enabled shortly before the DOP) • Data Archive (DA): • upload and retrieval successfully testedMore details tomorrow ( Claudia Wunram)

19. Timetable Dry-runs: • 26 February – 2 March 2007 • 29 March – 4 April 2007 • 24 April – 30 April 2007 Ramp-up:  24 May – 31 May 2007 D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP):  1 June – 30 November 2007

20. Organisation • Steering Committee • Dorninger, Staudinger (A), Rotach, Schär (CH), Volkert, Wulfmeyer (D), Bouttier, Richard (F), Buzzi, Frustaci, Ranzi, Rossa (I), Mylne (UK) • Working Groups • WG-DI: Data interface chair: Andrea Montani, ARPA-SIM (I) • WG-HEU: Hydrology and end users co-chairs: Roberto Ranzi, U Brescia (I), Christoph Hegg, WSL (CH) • WG-VER: Verificationchair: Manfred Dorninger, U Vienna (A) • WG-DP: Data policychair Mathias Rotach, MeteoSwiss (CH) • Project Coordinator: marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch • For details: http://www.map.meteoswiss.ch/d-phase