1 / 43

2009 School Election Conference

2009 School Election Conference. 2009 Washington State Education Study. Conducted by:. Sponsored by:. Conkling Fiskum & McCormick. Seattle-Northwest Securities. Contents. Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120. Mood and Perspectives. Opinions about Education. School Funding.

leyna
Télécharger la présentation

2009 School Election Conference

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. 2009 School Election Conference 2009Washington State Education Study Conducted by: Sponsored by: Conkling Fiskum & McCormick Seattle-Northwest Securities

  2. Contents Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Mood and Perspectives Opinions about Education School Funding Communication Property Taxes

  3. Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Mood and Perspectives

  4. Mood Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Are things in Washington State headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track? USA 38% 54% • Pessimism has returned. 48% say Washington State is on the wrong track. • Optimists: Democrats (67%), 18-34 years olds (48%) and women (46%). • Pessimists: Republicans (71%), Eastern Washington (57%) and Independents (56%).

  5. Most Important Problem Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Which is the most important issue facing Washington State? • Stateside: • Taxes leap to the top issue. Concerns about transportation (-13) and health care (-3) drop. Funding education holds steady (+2). • GOP (57%) and Independents (56%) are most concerned with taxes. • Dems say education (34%) and health care (33%) are the top issues.

  6. Anti-Tax Sentiment Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Do you agree or disagree: I just can’t afford to pay additional property taxes, regardless of what they are used for. Dems (67%) are least concerned about taxes. Anti-tax sentiments soar 10 points. Strongest opinions among GOP (60%) and Independents (60%). % Agree Western Cos. -- 42% 35% 50% 35% 50%

  7. Key Findings Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 • Voters are concerned. • The overall mood is pessimistic. • Concerns about higher taxes have increased significantly. • Anti-tax sentiments have jumped.

  8. Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Opinions about Education

  9. Grading Schools Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 What grade would you give schools in your local school district? % A/B Grades % A/B Grades Western Cos. -- -- -- 53% 47% 53% 45% 60% • Grades for public school performance jump nine points. A 54% majority grades school performance above average. • A/B grades increase six points from 2007 to 2009. • Democrats (65% A/B) are most impressed. • A majority of all groups give A/B grades except Seattle (24%), urban (43%) and transitional (49%) area residents.

  10. Likely to Recommend Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 How likely are you to recommend your local school district to a friend or a new family considering moving to your community? % very likely 2005 2007 2009 All 34% 31% 33% Western Cos. 38% 29% 27% Washington Promoters Give A/B grades 50% Parents 46% Recommendations generate positive buzz about schools. Why recommend (If very/somewhat likely) Quality of teachers/staff 32% Quality of education 21% School is run well 18% Excellent programs 17% Good community 13% Teachers pay attention to students 10% Hesitations (If not likely) Poor quality of education 17% Not teaching the basics 13% School is overcrowded 12% School is incompetent 11%

  11. Problems Facing Education Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 What is the biggest problem facing schools in Washington state? Statewide Western Cos. Lack of funding 24% 25% Overcrowded schools 10% 6% Lack of qualified teachers 9% 12% Teaching the basics 5% 7% Parental involvement 5% 5% Low teacher’s pay 4% 2% Discipline 4% 4% • Statewide: • Funding returns to the top issue. • Concerns about discipline decline. Minus 13 points since 1995. • Other issues are unchanged

  12. Rating Specific Performance Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 What grade would you give your local school district for the these activities? %A/BWestern Statewide Cos. Using technology 55% 48% Preparing students for college 50% 48% Informing the community 48% 47% Considering input from the community 38% 39% Maintaining discipline 37% 39% Managing the district’s money 34% 33% Preparing students for the workforce 32% 35% Offering classes in “skilled-trades” 30% 40%

  13. Schools and the Local Economy Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Do you agree or disagree a good public school system is one of the most important ways a community can recruit new businesses, create jobs and maintain a stable economy? % Agree2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Statewide76% 80% 80% 83% 84% Western Co 73% 79% 79% 80% 83% Almost everyone agrees good schools help the local economy. If a resident 10 years or less: What influence did the quality of schools have on your decision to move to the area where you currently reside? Statewide Western Major influence 29% 29% Minor influence 18% 19% Total influence 47% 48% Nearly half of the newer residents say the quality of schools influenced their decision to move to the area. Good schools help economic development.

  14. Key Findings Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 • Voters are impressed with public schools. • Grades for overall performance and specific efforts are as good or better than 2007. • Positive buzz focuses on quality staff, education and good management. • School districts with good reputations will help local economic development.

  15. Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 School Funding

  16. Support for Bond Proposals Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Would you vote for or against a bond measure to: % For 2009 Statewide ’07 to ‘09 ’09 WesternCos. Fund the purchase of new technology forclassrooms in your area. 65% -8 64% Modernize existing schools in your area. 61% -8 62% Construct new school buildings inyour school district. 43% -14 39% • Support for all three measures dropped and is at an all-time low. Districts should expect an uphill battle on funding measures. • Strongest support: Dems, Parents, Suburban, Puget Sound • Weakest support: GOP, Eastern, Rural

  17. Technology Bond: Trends Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Would you vote for or against a bond to fund the purchase of technology for classrooms? 75% 73% 72% % For 69% 69% 69% 68% 65% 67% 67% 70% 60% 35% Western Cos. -- -- -- -- 71% 67% 67% 70% 64% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Two in three favor a technology bond. Support drops 8 points from 2007 to 2009.

  18. Modernize Schools : Trends Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Would you vote for or against a bond to modernize existing schools? 73% % For 69% 65% 66% 64% 61% 70% 60% 35% Western Cos. -- -- -- -- -- 71% 64% 62% 69% 62% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Six in ten favor a bond to modernize schools. Support drops eight points from 2007 to 2009.

  19. New School Bond: Trends Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Would you vote for or against a bond to fund new school buildings? % For 70% 55% 54% 54% 51% 52% 57% 52% 51% 48% 43% 60% 35% Western Cos. -- -- -- -- -- 50% 53% 56% 58% 39% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Less than half favor a bond to build new schools. Support drops 14 points from 2007 to 2009.

  20. M&O Levy: Trends Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Would you vote for or against a maintenance and operation levy for your local schools? 74% % For 70% 72% 69% 70% 65% 66% 63% 70% 50% 35% Western Cos. -- -- -- -- -- 72% 79% 71% 76% 66% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Six in ten support an M&O levy, well above the 50% majority needed to pass.

  21. Key Findings Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 • Support for school bonds and levies has dropped during the past two years. • Parents and Democrats form the strongest base of support. Republicans are least likely to favor school funding measures. • The simple majority lowers the bar for levies. • Rural and Eastern districts have the highest hurdles.

  22. Impacting Opinions Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Would you favor or oppose a bond measure if you knew that the funds would be used to….? % Favor Most Effective Messages Western Statewide Counties Add classes for skilled-labor 79% 82% Reduce overcrowding 73% 73% Update technology in the classroom 70% 72% Build permanent classrooms to replace portables 68% 65% Modernize old heating and air conditioning systems 75% 68% Create jobs and help the local economy 61% 66% Campaign themes are important. Some information will help push the vote to 60% or more.

  23. Impacting Opinions Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Would you favor or oppose a bond measure if you new that the funds would be used to….? Ineffective Messages % Favor 2009 Western Statewide Counties Build new schools to replace existingbuildings that are old and need repair 55% 55% Expand central facilities in schools, such ascafeterias, bathrooms and common areas 54% 55% Build schools that are environmentally friendly 52% 52% Using some information will not help pass a bond measure.

  24. Actual Election Results Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 School Levy/Bond Success Rates Separate vs. Joint Elections: Feb 2002 to May 2009 Levy approval is the same in separate and joint elections. 838 of 954 levies passed 64 of 74 levies passed Bond approval is higher in joint elections. 103 of 270 bond issues passed 31 of 74 bond issues passed Compiled by SNW

  25. Returning Mail-in Ballots Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 How many days after receiving your absentee ballot do you complete it and send it back? % who return ballots within seven days of receipt Voters are returning ballots more slowly than in years past. This has been a trend in other mail-in states. Continue campaigns until election day. 18% vote at the last minute. Western Counties -- -- 75% 70% 55% 54% 52%

  26. Key Findings Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 • Using the right campaign messages is very important. • Find the best themes for your district. • Don’t guess. Do research. • Joint levy/bond elections may work! • Now is not the time to propose a simple majority for bonds. • Continue to campaign until polls close.

  27. Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Communication

  28. Sources of Information Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 What is your main source of information about public school district issues? Where voters say they get information about education is unchanged since 1997. Most frequently volunteered: Newspapers 30% Newsletters 17% Neighbors 10% School employees 8% TV 8% % School Sources Western Cos. -- -- 36% 32% 37% 33% 28%

  29. Most Important Sources Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 How important are the following sources of information to you when you consider your vote on school funding measures? % Very/Somewhat Western Statewide Counties Parent of students 59% 59% School employees 59% 62% Family or friends 58% 57% Local newspaper 55% 51% Students 47% 53% School newsletter 45% 44% The Internet 40% 40% Television 36% 28% The importance of word of mouth has increased statewide. WOM is most important among education supporters.

  30. Information and the Internet Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 During the past year, have you used the Internet to get any type of information about your local schools, education or school district? Use of the Internet to get information about local schools is increasing. Statewide All 53% Parents 80% 18 to 54 years 63% Western Cos. 52% 87% of voters have Internet access at home or work. Washington voters getting information about schools has increase six points since 2007.

  31. Social Media Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Do you currently have a profile or account on the following? State- Western Wide Cos. Facebook or other social networking sites 39% 36% YouTube or other video sharing sites 13% 13% Linked-In 12% 7% Flickr or other photo sharing sites 10% 9% Twitter 8% 9% None 54% 55% FaceBook users statewide: 18 to 34 73% 35 to 54 40% 55+ 27% Parents 48% Dems 45% GOP 44% Key education supporters are using social media. Social media is popular among education supporters.

  32. Key Findings Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 • How people get information is changing. • Campaigns need a more complex communications strategy, using both traditional and new media. • Web sites are important. Don’t let IT departments control the content or design. • Social media? You bet. Key education supporters are using it to share information.

  33. Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Property Taxes

  34. Property Values and Taxes Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Property values in many parts of Washington State have decreased during the past year or two. To the best of your knowledge, how will decreases to your property values affect your property taxes? Will your taxes: There is no consensus about how declining property values will impact property taxes. 83% expect taxes to increase if property values go up. (2007 Washington Education Study)

  35. Property Values and School Funding Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Do you agree or disagree school districts get less money in taxes as property values go down? A majority of all sub-groups are more likely to agree district funding drops as property values decline.

  36. Vote Required for School Funds Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Do you agree or disagree voters must approve local school district taxes every one to four years? % Agree Voters expect to consider school district taxes every one to four years.

  37. Tax Restrictions Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Were you aware or not aware of a provision in Washington state’s constitution that restricts local government’s tax collection to 101% of the previous year? That means local taxes can increase only 1% over the previous year, based on assessed values • Statewide 2005 2007 2009 • Aware 39% 42% 44% • Not aware 60% 57% 55% • Western Counties • Aware 29% 43% 47% • Not aware 70% 57% 53% Awareness of Washington State’s tax restrictions on local governments is gradually increasing. Men (51%) and voters 55 years and older (51%) are most familiar with the restrictions.

  38. Key Findings Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 • Voters are familiar with public policies about funding measures. • There is some confusion regarding property values and school funding.

  39. Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 Final Thoughts

  40. Final Thoughts Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 • Public education is on solid ground. • Most think performance at public schools is good. • Voters are concerned and anti-tax sentiments are high.

  41. Final Thoughts Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 • Solid campaign strategies and tactics are needed. • Targeting supporters and using the right messages are very important. • “New school” communications are needed for campaigns. • Use traditional and social media. • Organize groups to generate WOM. • Keep employees informed.

  42. Methodology Conkling Fiskum & McCormick, Inc 503-294-9120 • 500 telephone interviews statewide • Margin of error: +/- 4.5% • Interviews conducted August 2009 Check with Seattle-Northwest Securities for regional and county reports. • Regions: Puget Sound, Western and Eastern Counties • Counties: King, Clark, Pierce, Snohomish, Spokane and Yakima Counties.

  43. 2009 School Election Conference 2009Washington State Education Study Sponsored by: Seattle-Northwest Securities Trevor Carlson, tcarlson@snwsc.com Annette Sommer, asommer@snwsc.com (206) 628-2882 Conducted by: Conkling Fiskum & McCormick Tom Eiland, tome@cfmpdx.com (503) 802-4112

More Related