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TTMA

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TTMA

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  1. TTMA 2004-4 Travel Trends Update Presented by December 2, 2004

  2. Lauren Schlau Consulting • Travel & Tourism Market Research since 1978 at SDCVB; LSC since 1992 • TTMAPast Pres. • CalTIA Executive Board • Consult to CVBs and others in travel industry • Visitor conversion, economic impact, ad effectiveness & ROI studies • Needs a vacation

  3. “Gemini” U.S. & Local Economy Jobs, GDP, retail sales, travel UP but…. • Higher Prices/Fuel Costs • Rising Interest Rates • Inconsistent Consumer Confidence/ insecurity • Value Obsessed Travelers • Last Minute Bookings

  4. Worldwide & No. America Tourism

  5. U.S. Travel Volume in U.S. Domestic Person Trips and International Visitors (millions) Source: Travel Industry Association

  6. 1 7 8 2 3 4 5 9 6 10

  7. Southern California Pie • 22.2 Mil. People In Southern California • More than 7.5 Mil. Households • About 10.1 Mil. Employees • Estimated 286,000 Hotel/Motel Rooms • SoCal is about 61% of the State: 22.2 mm. Of 36.1 mm. Calif. Population10.1 mm. Of 16.2 mm. Calif. Employees

  8. So Cal Travel Volume Millions

  9. SoCal Ports of Entry-All Overseas Millions

  10. So Cal Ports of Entry - Japan Millions

  11. SoCal Ports of Entry - U.K. Millions

  12. Domestic Air Travel To SoCal* Millions *Initiated Air Trips To Southern California (OD1a)

  13. So Cal U.S. Air Origin Markets (*Initiated Air Trips To Southern California - OD1a)

  14. SoCal Visitor Spending ($Billions)

  15. Visitors To Southern California in 2004 (Overnight) • 46.5 mill. overnight visitors (+4.3%) • 88% (41 mil) domestic, 12% (5 mil) international • So Cal Visitors spent $24+ billion (+7.6%) • 25 million stayed in a hotel or motel (53%) • 18 million arrived by air

  16. SoCal Hotel Market So Cal = 223,300 Rooms Rooms *PKF Consulting Inc. 2004 Lodging Industry Forecast

  17. 2004-05 SoCal Visitor Forecast • Visitors46.5 M (Prelim. 2004) + 4.6%47.5 - 48 M (2005 Forecast) + 2.2%-3% • International Visitors5.3 M (Prelim 2004) + 5.7%5.6 - 5.9 M (2005 Forecast) + 6% to 10% • Domestic Visitors41.2 M (Prelim. 2004) + 3.5%41.9 - 42.1 M (2005 Forecast) + 1.7% to 2.4% • Spending$24.2 B (Prelim. 2004) + 7.6%$25.6 - $26.1 B (Forecast 2005) + 5.7%-7.8%Source: CIC Research

  18. Research Resources • Tourism: WTO, PATA IACVB, TIA, CalTour, OTTI • Transportation: ATA, NTA, Amtrak, AAA, Airports • Attractions: Attractions news, National & State Parks; museums • Economy: US Government, local Colleges, • Demographics: US Census (from national to census block level) • Hotels: PKF Consulting, Smith Travel Research, AHLA, City (for TOT)

  19. Examples of “Gemini” Trends • What’s real – Mickey Mouse will be the 2005 Rose Bowl Grand Marshall • More airlines dropping first – class…. While at the same time… • Corporate Jets Making A Comeback; deliveries are up 10% due to tax benefits and airport hassles • Anyway, happy planning… 

  20. Thank You Very Much ! www.lsconsult.com