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China: Threat or Opportunity or Both

China: Threat or Opportunity or Both. China, with Provinces. What We Know Already. 1949: Communist victory; Nationalist defeat PRC vs. ROC 1972: Nixon to China 1979: US-China normalization. What is Taiwan?. China: A Province of China

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China: Threat or Opportunity or Both

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  1. China: Threat or Opportunity or Both

  2. China, with Provinces

  3. What We Know Already 1949: Communist victory; Nationalist defeat PRC vs. ROC 1972: Nixon to China 1979: US-China normalization

  4. What is Taiwan? China: A Province of China US: A part of a united China, united in some undefined way and how that works is up to Taiwan and China as long as it is done peacefully Taiwan: Taiwan is a part of China

  5. Changes since 1970s Taiwan democracy Lee Teng-hui Chen shui-bian Ma Ying-jeou 1988-2000 2000-2008 2008--

  6. Chinese Economic Reform • Deng Xiaoping

  7. The Statistics http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/chinese_economic_history/html/1998.stm

  8. Shanghai, China

  9. The Dilemma • Economic reform: yes • Political reform: No • But… Economic Calls for Reform Political reform

  10. Tiananmen Square 1989

  11. June 4, 1989

  12. Bush 41 View US USSRPRC

  13. US Congress View Jackson-Vanik Amendment to Trade Act of 1974 • “President determines” that a nonmarket economy nation “denies” or “imposes more than a nominal tax” on those who emigrate or desire to emigrate, then the “products from any nonmarket economy country shall not be eligible to receive nondiscriminatory treatment (normal trade relations)…and the President of the United States shall not conclude any commercial agreement with any such country.” Most Favored Nation status

  14. Clinton View What is China? • Worst human rights violator on the planet • Biggest of the BEM 1993: China given a deadline of June 1994 for human rights improvement

  15. The Battle: 1993-94 Public and Congressional debate Within Administration National Economic Council, Dept. of Treasury and Commerce vs. State Dept, State Human Rights Bureau vs. Dept. of Defense, NSC Staff, State Dept. East Asian Bureau Business lobbies ($$$) vs. Human Rights lobbies (pressure China) vs. Realists (stable relations)

  16. Threat • Opportunity • Both

  17. China’s Wealth

  18. Mark Selden, Nation, Region and the Global in East Asia: Conflict and Cooperation, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://japanfocus.org/-Mark-Selden/3422

  19. South China Sea: OIL Ian Storey, Conflict in the South China Sea: China’s Relations with Vietnam and the Philippines, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://www.japanfocus.org/-ian-storey/2734

  20. Source: The Economist: www.economist.com/node/17601487

  21. From: Annual Report to CongressMilitary Power of the People’s Republic of China 2009(http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf. pp 24-5

  22. The Future • China as a regional rival • China as a peer competitor • A rival with a functioning economy • China as an ideological rival • Liberal-democracy vs. Soft Authoritarianism • Integrating China into the world and taming it • Responsible stakeholder • China anti-hegemony: “peaceful rise”

  23. But…Economic Interdependence Chinese Trade (2010) From Chinese Ministry of Commerce 2009-2010, http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/statistic/ie/200901/20090105999698.html US Trade (2010) From US Census Bureau data; chart from http://www.globalization101.org/a-snapshot-of-us-trade/

  24. Mutual Assured Bankruptcy? Who owns the Debt 2011?Federal Reserve information • US Federal Reserve and other Government Financial Entities • Other Investors/Savings Bonds • China • Japan • Pension Funds • Money Market Funds/Mutual Funds • State and Local Governments in US • UK • Banks • Insurance Companies • OPEC nations • Brazil • Caribbean nations • Hong Kong • Canada

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