Sustainable security and its implications for politicians and people

1. Sustainable security and its implications for politicians and people April 2009 Dr. John Sloboda,Executive Director

2. Acknowledgments • Paul Rogers, Chris Abbott (ORG) • The late Janet Bloomfield • Greenpeace International • Ford Foundation of America • Network for Social Change • Fundacion para las Relaciones Internationales y el Dialogo Exteriores (FRIDE) • And all our core funders (individual and organisational)

3. Structure of presentation 1. Two approaches to security 2. Global threats 3. The failure of the control paradigm 4. Promoting sustainable security

4. Two approaches to security

5. Two approaches to security

6. Key differences • Both approaches acknowledge a comparable range of threats • Their differences are more in (a) the relative priorities placed on threats (b) the responses selected to deal with them (c) the degree to which separate problems are dealt with in “silos” or joined up

7. The control paradigm • Attempts to control or suppress the manifestations of insecurity, primarily through the use (or the threat of use) of military force. It sees armed groups with hostile intent as the paramout source of threat. It deals with threats singly. Examples include - Cold War deterrence - the post 9-11 “War on Terror”

8. The sustainable security view • Attempts to address the long-term drivers of insecurity, primarily through the reduction or removal of underlying root causes of violence. It sees human use of resources as the paramount source of threat. It takes a comprehensive approach. Partial examples include - Marshall Plan in Post-war Europe - Improvement of the conditions for Catholics in Northern Ireland.

9. 2. Global Threats

10. Background Initial report based on work commissioned by Greenpeace International, published in English (June 2006) and Spanish (October 2006)

11. Beyond Terror Book published by Rider Press (April 2007), and now translated into 4 languages (Portuguese, Dutch, German, Spanish).

12. Examples of impact • President Zapatero quoted from it during policy speeches in 2006 • the German Parliament requested copies for the MP's library, and ORG was invited to address a group of senior German MPs in the German Parliamentary Green Party • John Ashton (Margaret Beckett’s special representative on Climate Change) ordered 40 copies to distribute during the UNSC debate on Climate Change and Security in April 2007. • In November 2007 ORG was invited to address the Australian Police Federation, and was the first to analyse the impact of climate change on policing. • The threats identified in the UK National Security Strategy of April 2008 (and much of the conceptual language) are similar (and in some cases identical)

13. Follow-up work An Uncertain Future: Law Enforcement, National Security & Climate Change (2008)

14. Identifying trends • Climate change • Competition over resources • Marginalisation of the ‘majority world’ • Global militarisation fundamental threats – four interconnected trends:

15. Climate Change

16. Deaths from climate change “In my view, climate change is the most severe problem we are facing today, more serious even than the threat of terrorism…" “… based on the number of fatalities that have already occurred… global warming has already killed more people than terrorism.” Sir David King, UK Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, 2004 (editorial in “Science” journal)

17. Deaths from climate change

18. Key threats from Climate change • Coastal effects – rising sea levels • Rainfall effects – drought & desertification • Mass migration • Food and water shortages

19. UK implications? • Main effects in “global south” • European implications could include - Civil unrest and eco-terrorism - Intercommunal violence (e.g. against immigrants) - international instability (redrawing of world map and potential for conflict)

20. Drastically reduce dependence on CO2 emitting fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) in the next 10 years Energy conservation Renewables (wind, wave, solar, tidal and biomass) The nuclear dilemma – the power-weapon link Climate change – remedies

21. Remedies – nuclear/renewable?

22. Sign of hope 1 – Individual leadership • Obama has reaffirmed his campaign vow to reduce CO2 emissions by 80 percent by 2050, and invest $150 billion in new energy-saving technologies. • UK Climate Change Act is the first in the world. Commits to 20% reduction by 2020 and 80% by 2050. • China is considering a firm target for carbon emissions for the first time (April 2009).

23. Competition over Resources 3/6

24. New Ecomonics Foundation “ For everyone to live at the current European average level of (energy) consumption, we would need to more than double the biocapacity available – the equivalent of 2.1 planet earths – to sustain us……. ………If everyone consumed at the US rate, we would require nearly five.” (January 2006)

25. World’s major economies are net importers of oil Growth in demand from USA and China is rising rapidly 5 Persian gulf countries contain two-thirds of all oil reserves: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE Competition over resources

26. China’s oil consumption

27. World oil reserves – end 2004

28. US Military posture • CENTCOM – primary purpose is to maintain control of Gulf region’s oil • Permanent bases in Iraq are close to oilfields • Complete military withdrawal from Iraq is an unlikely option for the USA

29. Oil wars UK government's former chief scientific adviser says Iraq war was about oil, not weapons of mass destruction – and warns there will be more 'resource wars' to come (David King, Guardian, Feb 12 2009)

30. Peak oil (www.oildecline.com) Oil is now being consumed four times faster than it is being discovered, and the situation is becoming critical.

31. Water Politics • One in five people (1.1 billion) have no access to safe drinking water (UN Report, “Water and Development” March 2006) • Population of Nile basin will double over 25 years • Israel and Palestine share same declining water resource.

32. Water Politics • Real risk of “water wars” • Avoiding conflict requires strict observance of water laws and robust multilateral approaches to water management

33. Remedies – oil grab / “frugality”

34. Dongtan (near Shanghai), being built from scratch to house 800,000 people Carbon-free, energy from renewables (inc. rice husks) All buildings collect rainwater Work and residential areas in walking distance No petrol or diesel allowed within the city Sign of hope 2 – China’s ecological city

35. Marginalisation of the ‘Majority World’ 4/6

36. Marginalisation of the majority world • Global wealth dividend is not being shared equitably • The rich get richer, and the poor get poorer, both within and between countries

37. Ecomonic factors • One in five people survive on less than $1 a day • MDG goals far from achievement • International trade and aid rules prevent poorer countries developing their own economies • Western corporations plunder the natural resources of poor countries, with little local benefit

38. Social instability and armed conflict have been associated with rising income inequality and growing resource scarcity. • Indonesia. mobs have burned factories and cars to protest grievances ranging from land disputes to pollution from shrimp ponds. • Philippines, Muslim rebels are most active in western Mindanao, where the wealth gap between that region and the capital Manila is greatest. • Peru. There is a close correlation between the stronghold areas of the guerrilla movement and the areas suffering greatest poverty. • Mexico. The Zapatista rebellion in the southern Mexican state of Chiapas is largely attributable to grossly inequitable patterns of land tenure and the inability of peasant farmers to subsist on their small, degraded land holdings.

39. Social factors • Internal persecution of 1 billion people from ethnic, religious, or linguistic groups • Political marginalisation of such groups. • Organised crime, social disorder, and cultural tensions • Fuels support for political violence and terrorism

40. Communication factors • Education can lead to increased expectations of opportunity • Global communications technology adds to perceptions and understandings of injustice • IT allows new and difficult to control forms networking between those with frustrated expectations

41. Remedies –“securitisation” /development

42. Sign of hope 3 – G20 Declaration “We are determined not only to restore growth but to lay the foundation for a fair and sustainable world economy. We recognise that the current crisis has a disproportionate impact on the vulnerable in the poorest countries and recognise our collective responsibility to mitigate the social impact of the crisis to minimise long-lasting damage to global potential”

43. Global Militarisation 5/6

44. The cold war • Cold war military investment at the expense of civil programmes, supposedly to “keep the peace” • Conflicts worldwide from 1945-2000 killed 25 million people • The idea that the Cold War was a period in which nuclear weapons kept the peace is a myth

45. Post cold-war • In the 1990s there was some nuclear disarmament • A Chemical Weapons Convention was ratified • US developed “global reach” to fight limited wars at a distance (high-tech, low human engagement – military might rather than “hearts and minds”)

46. Rejected multilateralism (CTBT, ABMT) Refused to strengthen Biological and Toxins Weapons Treaty (BTWT) Worked to develop “usable” nuclear weapons (B61-11 “bunker busters”) By aggression, and the threat of aggression, encouraged nuclear proliferation in vulnerable states The Bush administration

47. A new arms race • India, Pakistan, and China are engaged in an uncontrolled action-reaction arms buildup • This is unconstrained by any arms control architecture such as was present in the cold war

48. Remedies – CP / NP

49. Promote the rule of law and the diplomatic resolution of international disputes Reconfigure military forces to a non-provocative defensive posture, focusing on peacekeeping and humanitarian missions Ensure control of both nuclear and biological weapons (through BTWC and NPT) and halt the development of new nuclear weapons or the upgrading of current systems. Controlling global militarisation

50. Sign of hope 4 – the Obama-Biden plan • Move Toward a Nuclear Free World: Obama and Biden will set a goal of a world without nuclear weapons, and pursue it. • They will stop the development of new nuclear weapons; • seek dramatic reductions in U.S. and Russian stockpiles of nuclear weapons and material; • expand the U.S.-Russian ban on intermediate-range missiles so that the agreement is global.