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The Genealogy of Jefferson: Analyzing Evidence of Paternity through DNA Data

This study delves into the genealogy of Thomas Jefferson and his supposed son Eston Hemings, drawing on DNA evidence that suggests Randolph Jefferson, not Thomas, may be Eston's biological father. By examining historical accounts and statistical data from 700,300 families, the research highlights key comparisons in paternity likelihood based on gendered offspring patterns. The categorical and numerical data involved enrich the discussion surrounding historical narratives, familial connections, and the implications of DNA in understanding ancestry.

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The Genealogy of Jefferson: Analyzing Evidence of Paternity through DNA Data

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  1. Statistics in Business Phillip E Pfeifer

  2. Statistics in Business Phillip E Pfeifer

  3. Darden Graduate Business School 1980 to present Ted PfeiferStevens Tech 2010 Georgia Tech 1979 Max PfeiferND 2012

  4. Thomas Jefferson Had Girls RandolphJefferson1755-1815 Sally Hemings1773-1835 Thomas Jefferson1743-1826 EstonHemings1806-1856

  5. Pointing to Randolph Jefferson, we have evidence he was at Monticello nine months before Sally gave birth to Eston—the DNA match. We got evidence that he used to go party and socialize with the slaves late at night… What was the most important evidence pointing to Randolph and not Thomas? He said, “Look, the DNA match was to a male child, EstonHemings. Randolph Jefferson had six male children with two wives. Thomas Jefferson had all female children, except for an infant who died. Who is more likely to father a male child, Randolph or Thomas?” I thought that was a brilliant point. David A. Maurer, “In Defense of a Reputation,” Daily Progress, January 18, 2010.

  6. I have some data…. • This data set is great. • These data are great. • The first four variables are categorical. • The last variable (#children) is numeric. • #children is discrete (not continuous). • There are 700,300 elements (families) in the data set. • n=700,300

  7. Expected vs Actual 4-child Family counts by NumberofFemales

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