AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT

1. Kyoto Protocol enters into force on Feb 16, 2005 AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT

2. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT

5. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON FOOD SECURITY OF NEPAL (A scenario based analysis) By: Kishore Sherchan

6. Area, production and yield Rice: Wheat: Maize: Potato:

7. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT Climate Change Impact

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9. Year Potato Toria Sarson Rayo Lentil Chick pea Impact of cold wave on winter crop yields in the Terai of Nepal, 1997/98. 1987/88 539 1320 1988/89 703 563 728 1989/90 25.54 503 844 819 709 1990/91 19.72 570 912 1991/92 22.28 949 1992/93 17.36 1993/94 22.13 712 785 601 1044 1994/95 23.76 718 524 548 1995/96 17.21 760 636 565 1996/97 22.63 815 803 887 959 922 Mean 21.33 747 569 733 807 999 1997/98 15.39 474 505 513 504 619 % Reduction 27.8 36.5 11.2 30.0 37.6 38.0

10. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT • Methodology: • ØModel • DSSAT Ver. 3.5 • EXCEL • ARCVIEW Ø  Data • ·  Average of 10 to 30 years of daily weather data • (Tmax, Tmin, Srad and Rain) from 30-40 locations. • ·  Soil data of Nepal available from LRMP 1986 and NARC. • ·  Crop management data from NARC • ·  Agricultural statistics from MOAC and CBS.

11. ØZoning (3 x 5) · Three agro-ecological zonings (Terai, Hill and Mountain). ·  Five development regions. ØClimate Scenario (9) ·  Ambient ·  2CO2 : 580ppm ·  Temperature : 580ppm + 1oC, +2 oC, +4 oC ·  Rain : + 20% Ø Crop yield : Actual and Potential AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT

12. Model Structure AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT OVERVIEW CARBON WATER NITROGEN PEST ECONOMICS SUMMARY GROWTH PHOSPHOR

13. AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONING OF NEPAL

17. Rice:

18. Rice:

19. Rice:

20. Rice:

21. Rice:

22. Rice:

23. Wheat:

24. Wheat:

25. Wheat:

26. Wheat:

27. Wheat:

28. Wheat:

29. Maize:

30. Maize:

31. Maize:

32. Maize:

33. Maize:

34. Maize:

35. Rainfall Variability and Yield Rice Wheat

36. Rice Wheat

37. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT Socio-Economics

38. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT Scenario • Normal (Business as usual) • APP • 3. Climate change (by 2075)

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43. Impact of GHGs on Agriculture AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT • With doubling of CO2, productivity of C3 crops particularly rice, soybean, millets and tropical C3 grasses will likely to increase with adoption of more heat tolerant varieties. • Simultaneous increase of temperature as a result of doubling of CO2, temperate crops such as wheat, barley, potato, lentil, mustard and temperate grasses will likely to be adversely affected and may need effective adaptation measures.

44. 3. With the increase of CO2, productivity of C4 crops like maize, sugarcane, sorghum and C4 tropical grasses will be little increased but temperature will have more negative and rainfall will have variable effects. • Climate change will have impact on the extinction of biodiversity species and shift in habitat is likely to occur. • 5. With the uniform rise of rainfall will have positive impact on overall agriculture but skewed rise (extreme event) will have negative impact on soil nutrient loss due to flood damage and erosion, and will have negative impact on overall agriculture. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT

45. 6. With the increased use of chemical fertilizer, N2O emission will likely to increase. • 7. If APP target is achieved, there will be significant surplus of food production. There will be marginal surplus under normal scenario. Food production will barely meet under climate change scenario. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT

46. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT Adaptation Strategies • Resource conservation • Soil management through such as minimum tillage in the rice-wheat system should be developed. Surface seeding and bed planting in the rice can reduce carbon and water loss (by 10-25 %) as well as the cost of production and thus save large amount of carbon emissions. • 2. Development of genetically adaptive varieties • Breeding strategies that can incorporate stress attributes such as heat and drought stresses should be adopted. Rice and wheat varieties that can do better under rainfed and heat stress condition would reverse the effect of the process of global warming.

47. 3. Hybrid crop program Model prediction has indicated that there will be a severe negative effect on maize yield. For instance, hybrid maize that can improve yield at least by 50% will upset the negative effect of climate change. 4. Crop diversification program Crop diversification including multiple and mixed cropping system should be promoted. This will give better insurance to avert the risk of crop failure and diversify income sources and conserve natural resources. e.g. horticultural plantation and other cash crops. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT

48. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT • 5. Manage the methane emission from rice field • Rice is the most important crop. Minimizing methane nitrous oxide emission in rice field through efficient use of fertilizer such as sulfur coated urea, slow release fertilizer and with alternate flooding drying and rainfed rice culture would help to reduce the methane emission. • 6. Manage the livestock production • Improving ruminant's digestion through better feeding to minimize methane emission from the livestock. This also demands the discarding of unproductive livestock population.In the highland strategic breeding program between yak and cow should be adopted which will have better adaptation to global warming.

49. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT • 7. Promotion of biogas as a source • Biogas has been considered an efficient alternative technology for the rural area to supplement the energy and for environment protection. In overall the biogas is a save technology to replace fuel wood and mitigate the global warming. This should be promoted at the rural level. • 8. Institutional strengthening • Given the topographical variation, climatic zoning should be demarcated and adaptation strategy should be applied. There should be a coordinated effort to the refinement of climatological analysis and implementation of early warning weather prediction system. A strong base on the climatic variability and agriculture should be built in the FYP.

50. Conclusion AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT • Doubling of CO2 will have more of positive impact on major crops but adversely affected by the simultaneous rise of temperature particularly in the warmer environment and C4 crops. • Mountain environment is more favourable than the tropical flat lands to reverse the impact of climate change, but subject to very much micro-climatic condition due to varied topography. Tropical crops likely to move upwards due to likely increase in global temperature.