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Challenges in Convection

Challenges in Convection. Leo Donner GFDL/NOAA, Princeton University. DOE Workshop on Community Modeling and Long-Term Predictions of the Regional-Scale Integrated Water Cycle Washington, DC, 25 September 2012.

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Challenges in Convection

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  1. Challenges in Convection Leo Donner GFDL/NOAA, Princeton University DOE Workshop on Community Modeling and Long-Term Predictions of the Regional-Scale Integrated Water Cycle Washington, DC, 25 September 2012

  2. Challenge I: Climate Spread in Predicted Changes in Precipitation

  3. Projected Change in Precipitation for NH Winter (DJF) and NH Summer (JJA) White Areas: Less than 66% of models agree on increase or decrease Stippled Areas: More than 90% of models agree on increase or decrease

  4. Challenge II: Robust Errors

  5. Annual Precipitation Atmosphere with Prescribed SSTs GFDL AM3 Kato et al. (2011, J. Geophys. Res.) indicate GPCP precipitation may be biased 15% to 20% low. Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model GFDL CM3

  6. Challenge III: Cumulus Parameterizations Implicated in Climate Model Inability to Simultaneously SimulateMean State and Variability

  7. (bin size = 0.05) from Donner et al. (2011, J. Climate)

  8. from Donner et al. (2011, J. Climate)

  9. Challenge IV: Aerosols and Deep Convection

  10. Aerosol Interactions with Deep Convection: Invigoration? Anvil Radiative Changes? from Rosenfeld et al. (2008, Science) Lee et al. (2009, ACP) showed longwave MCS warming with increased aerosol offset 28% of shortwave cooling.

  11. Challenge V: Convective Organization

  12. from Benedict et al. (2012, J. Climate, in press)

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