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Climatic modulation of water demand in the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico USA

Climatic modulation of water demand in the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico USA. David S. Gutzler 1,2 Joshua S. Nims 2 gutzler@unm.edu jnims@flash.net 1 Dept. of Earth & Planetary Sciences & 2 Water Resources Program University of New Mexico, Albuquerque

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Climatic modulation of water demand in the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico USA

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  1. Climatic modulation of water demand in the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico USA David S. Gutzler1,2Joshua S. Nims2 gutzler@unm.edujnims@flash.net 1Dept. of Earth & Planetary Sciences &2Water Resources Program University of New Mexico, Albuquerque 1. Is there significant climatic modulation of water consumption? 2. Yes, if data are filtered to emphasize year-to-year changes in residential consumption in the summer season 3. Assessment of Albuquerque’s water conservation efforts supported by a grant from the NOAA RISA program

  2. Albuquerque water consumption time series The ABQ City water supply now comes entirely from groundwater,so climate variability does not directly affect water supply 1994 consumption  925 L/d per capita 2001 consumption  750 L/d per capita 1 ac-ft = 1.23106 L

  3. Albuquerque basin / Rio Grande rift valley Santa Fe group sediments USGS

  4. Water conservation: a recent concern in ABQ 1984 ad Albuquerque Living magazine only the Upper Santa Fe group is productive aquifer www.cabq.gov

  5. Albuquerque aquifer: 1960-2002 declines USGS

  6. Does climate variability affect water use in Albuquerque? ... we need to remove, or filter out, the huge effect of population growth before considering climatic effects(simply dividing by population doesn't work)The principal result of this studyis the demonstration of a simplealgorithm to isolate the componentof municipal water use that is sensitive to climate variability Population certainly does!

  7. Albuquerque water use by sector over half of demand for City water is for residential use

  8. Residential Consumption: Time Series by Month (data available only since 1980) summer season maximumpronounced summertime interannual variability } summer months

  9. Summer climate and water use time series Population change is very steady (perhaps artificially so); looking at year-to-year changes in summer residential use is remarkably effective for isolating the sensitivity of total water consumption to climate variabilityResults to follow are based on JJAS residential use, 1980-2001; defining “summer” = JJA or JAS yields very similar results 2000, 2001 hot & dry; 2002/3 data continue this trend

  10. Year-to-year changes in climate and summer residential water use are highly correlated Regression calculated on pre-conservation period (1981-1994),using 1995-2001 period as independent data this regression works equally well on total (instead of per capita) H2O consumption! explained variance: 1981-1994:65% 1995-2001:91% regression model works better on independent data!

  11. Both Dprecip and DTmax contribute to the regression DP is the first order term 1 mm/d precip change73L/d consumption change1 deg C Tmax change15L/d consumption change Possible effects of conservation 1)DH2O regression systematically over- estimates post-1995 data by 21 L/d per capita (a small bias!) 2) Improved fit to post- 1995 data suggests that people may be adjusting their H2O use to climatic conditions more carefully

  12. Conclusions: Water Demand in ABQ • Climate variability matters for summer residential use • Residential use >50% of total consumption • Just under 50% of residential use occurs in summer • Interannual variability is about +/- 15% of avg consumption • Precip, Tmax anomalies account for most of this variance  examination of year-to year changes in consumption brings out the climate signal • Explicit examination of the climatically sensitive component of water use can help assess conservation efforts • Useful climate predictions would help water managers • Climate affects maximum demand for water (in summer)

  13. Questions / Future Work Short data record: ...Would a major multi-year drought affect these statistics? ...Long term effects of continued conservation efforts? Explicit inclusion of economic effects on consumption? Generalization to other cities in the SW US? Albuquerque’s water supply (100% groundwater) is now buffered from climate variability .... how does this affect consumption tendencies?

  14. Albuquerque? Reno? 1984 ad Albuquerque Living magazine 2003 ad NOAA Climate Diagnostics Workshop thanks for hosting us, Kelly!

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