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Enhancing Rainfall Forecasting Through Radar Reflectivity and GSI Incremental Data Integration

This report details the integration of radar reflectivity and GSI incremental wind and surface variable data in the forecasting of rainfall. Using data from June 15 to June 16, 2006, we evaluate the impact of incorporating radar reflectivity at 3 km on 12-hour accumulated rainfall predictions. We employ a verification domain over the CONUS region and analyze variances between stratiform and convective rainfall. Future plans include high-resolution runs and adjustments to cloud classification for improved forecasting accuracy.

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Enhancing Rainfall Forecasting Through Radar Reflectivity and GSI Incremental Data Integration

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Presentation Transcript

  1. MCS 20090615-2009061606

  2. 1. Introduction • Where?

  3. Observed reflectivity at 3km from 2006061518- 2006061618

  4. 2. Experiment design

  5. 3. incremental

  6. 2009061606 radar reflectivity at 3km

  7. Wind field incremental of GSI ---conventional data plus radar reflectivity

  8. Wind field incremental of GSI ---radar radial velocity

  9. Surface variable incremental-- conventional data plus radar reflectivity

  10. Surface variable incremental-- radar radial velocity

  11. Moisture field incremental

  12. 4. Forecast result

  13. 12 hour accumulated rainfall—from1518-1606

  14. 12 hour accumulated rainfall—from1518-1606

  15. Moist field vertical slice

  16. 5. verification

  17. Verification domain--130 Regional (CONUS) Lambert Conformal grid 13 km

  18. 061515

  19. I hour accumulated rainfall verification—different data

  20. Stratiform VS Convective

  21. Different procedure

  22. 12 hour accumulated rainfall verification

  23. Next plan • Ran with high resolution • Change the cloud classification

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