Bandwagon Economics

1. Bandwagon Economics Nick Ragouzis, Enosis Group The necessary ingredient for success on the Identity Internet Internet Identity WorkshopBerkeley CA, October , 2005

2. Reinterpreting Identity’s Economics The Road from Versailles to Saint-Germain Alfred Sisley 1875 The Little Bay at La Ciotat Georges Braque, 1907 Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

3. The Discussion Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

4. Return on Investment • Operational Efficiencies in Provisioning • Productivities in service consolidation • Help desk offsets • Compliance management • Platform interoperation • Export of risks • Reduction in identifiers False foundation? Tacit agreement with a party having the power …to escalate or change requirements and alter the agreement Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

5. Changing Face of Personalization • Information: collecting enough, using intelligently • Personal greeting and targeted presentation insufficient • More than personalization morphed into mass customization • Significant disruption: • Continually alter offerings • Allow customers to arbitrarily create products(Auctions, recommenders, folksonomies, game worlds, shopping bots …) —Personalization is now product innovation, sharing all demands for investment and exposures to risks. McKinsey, Accenture, Gartner • Major overhaul to entire technology platform and product marketing, enterprise resource planning, and management systems. • Now selling Trust. Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

6. Foreshadowing for Identity • Users wield significantlymore control than we’ve accounted • Rather than preservation of status quo, we’re facing a substantialsystemic upheaval Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

7. Identity Internet • The stack issue: Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

8. Idealized (Following Stevens, 2004) Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

9. Practical Considerations • Integrating real-time services • Defining a parallel, multimedia Internet • Divide Internet according to services rqmnts; Set stage for RSVP • Required pervasive stack change • Abandon idea appls could simply adopt to lower layers; or lower layers could infer upper-layer needs • Throughout stack align semantics extensive to apps • Possible in IPv4; in IPv6 reshaping of IP header • Introduction of 20 bits for the experimental Flow field • An explicit reorientation of upper-layer semantics into IP • 250% increase in bits dedicated to these semantics IPv6 Header 6 DSCP ECN Flow … Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

10. Identity in IPv6 Transport Mode • Defining Authentication Header • Ground work: Application-domain Identity • E.g., IKEv2 Security Assoc for IPv6 IPsec • More: • SAML DNA has a role here too • Joining email addresses or X.509v3 certificates • Similar work in EAP and PANA, SIP, and Mobile IPv6 Bootstrap IPv6 Transport mode IPv6 Header Authentication Extnsn Header Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

11. Bandwagon Economics Broad Interlinking, and Third-Party Complementary Bandwagon Services • Do markets using digital identity exhibit these effects? • Do users have this kind of influence? If so, lends credibility to “Identity Internet”, and importance of certain kind of identity tech. Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

12. Bandwagon Economics Basics • Political Movements & Player Pianos • Facsimile & Mobile SMS • PCs … & … TV-Anytime Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

13. Bandwagons and Identity Internet:TV-Anytime • Background: TV-Anytime Forum • Europe, Asia, North America • Targeting personal video recorder and related • Really, all electronic media; very broad scope well beyond EPG • Test bed, adoption processes, Japan & Europe • crid://bbc.co.uk/Eastenders/ • Launch this summer of demonstration at BBC TV and Radio service & open source JavaAPI Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

14. Scenario Players • DVB-Tv: a digital video content company • NDRS: a partner offering content recording svcs • PDR Co.: TV-Anytime-enabled equip • Telefan family Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

15. Moving the Bandwagon • DVB-Tv and NDRS: walled-garden interlinking • Enable personalization and recommender • User Publish & Subscribe • Focused attention to identity, nothing grand • Compare to: • Friendster (audience makes own services in-domain) • LinkedIn (less of that; other drivers) • Facebook (satisfies other needs) • Good reason for not doing more: • Uncertain biz model • Identity technology is more challenging Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

16. Accelerating the Bandwagon • DVB-Tv, NDRS, and PDR Co move forward • Competing services, allow user interlinking • Third-party complementary services • Enhanced preferences-based schedule searching • …The globe over (out of market) • …Integrating with other content (out of media) • …Enable full integration by all parties (beyond pub/sub) • Can’t get far unless Identity-enabled Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

17. TV-Anytime Impact Vision (part of) (From: A. Mornington-West, EBU Technical Review, Apr 2005) Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

18. Identity-Enabling in TV-Anytime • Compose and intertwine bunch of identity standards, then invent an application layer? …or • Implement identity architecture prepared to deal with: • End-user services • Offering bandwagon-like interlinking build it • Liberty Alliance’s Web Services Framework (WSF) for Personal Profile (PP) service, more significantly… • WSF Data Services Template • Any other end-user service understanding DST and its identity service can interlink for identity-enabled services of any kind Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

19. Telefan Family • Interlink information from a Geolocation Services provider • With information from Presence Services provider • Look for content related to PP-managed preferences • Titles, previews for genre, actors, characters • Including inducements related to linking • Publish these to family, friends, … strangers • Even outside Telefan’s service providers env. Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

20. Same Conclusion at OMA • WSF DST and more • OMA Web Services Enabler Releases • Network Identity Technical Specifications • Demonstrated more than year back • OMA’s critical objectives: • “End-to-End Interoperability” … … but their bar’s much higher than technical consid. • “the customer-to-customer end-user experience” Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

21. Obvious? Not so much: ATSC • Consider ACAP and ICP • ASTC executed classic layer-and-compose • Reinventing systems not Identity-extensible • And not conducive to bandwagon effects • Compare to what the DVB Project defined • Broadly integrating TV-Anytime as above • Almost seems an attempt to build system that’s difficult for broad interlinking, or 3rd-party complementary bandwagon services. • Even having full awareness of TV-Anytime (AdvEPG) Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

22. More User Power: Disruptive Tech • User creates identities and gains leverage • Over identifiers, credentials and attributes • Through direct action, agency • In response to ‘internal’ needs and inducements • Digital identity as a new currency • Compete for it • Offering marketplace-negotiated value • Use it strategically Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

23. Disruptive Technology Basics • Power to separate firm from customers • Initially a supply not in firm’s business model • Similar, but: • Doesn’t act like other inputs • Likely from a different supplier • Primary attributes aren’t match to firm business model • A few firms make these attributes central • Suddenly the basis of competition • Firm’s belated adoption: customers already lost to rivals • Looking back: Looks obvious! Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

24. Pre-Disruptive Identity • Firms aligned on basic, intrinsic, personally identifying attributes: Biometrics, life events • Enhanced with global, local, contextual attribs: • Issued credentials, relevant affiliations, mutual t-actions • Believe them useful to ‘hold’ • Contributing to a firm’s valuation • We manage them to produce returns • Efficiencies and productivity • Further processing, mining: generate attributes useful • Customer gets indirect returns, future transactions Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

25. Pretty Expensive, and Risky • Risky in dependence on further transactions • For customers: relatively low costs, but nearly infinitesimal return: • Once they’ve provided the information with one firm, and created a history engagements and transactions • There’s no way to leverage, consolidate, export, generalize, bring agency to bear, enable others to offer value in exchange • Indirect returns through further transactions with firm Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

26. Identity Internet as Disruption • Among firms: • External interlinking, 3rd-party complementary BW Svcs • For customers: • Significant resources for leveraging identity • Identity now includes: • Current location; destinations past and future • Proximate and remote friends and associates • Transaction history, broad range of vendors, psychographics (drivers, desires, doubts) • Variation and conflicts: explicitness, details, rights Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

27. New Partners; New Terms • Less like money; more like time • Identity: Hold & Mine  Short time to leverage • Highly contextual; others short lived • Velocity/Freshness is one of most important attributes • Attributes available only through third parties • Many previously ‘irrelevant’ or unavailable (no agency) • Firm can only lease this • And secure a license (user’s partnership!) • Aggressively, in real time, lease ‘their’ info to others Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

28. Evolution of Valued Attributes Dominant paradigm Disruptive paradigm Firms: Efficiencies Price Users: Single Sign-on Convenience Reliability Firms: Security and Compliance Performance Users: Generate and leverage identity-related attributes and transactions Firms: Mechanics and connectivities Christensen Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

29. IdINet’s Disruptive Value Network Dominant paradigm Disruptive paradigm Harvesting: Operations and Marketing, in direct transactions and offsets Delivering attributes to local or foreign identity-conditioned services Machinery: Identity and Account Management machine for efficiencies and customer relationship management etc, for personalization Enabling those transports and amplified agency to effect connectivity Inputs: Users: Basic demographics and attributes Users: Creating attributes and efforts to interlink relationship with firm and other providers and users Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

30. Informing Laws of Identity? • Above factors more pervasive in these Laws? • Transform from Laws of Identity Security • Framework for controlling and remembering; for clarifying, conditioning, creating and deleting, leveraging and projecting • More power from metaphorical alignment with other Internets we know? • Mobile Internet, Multimedia Internet • Really not so much like device drivers and backplanes • Less like ISA to MCA to EISA • More like top-to-bottom PCI Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

31. Explorations for Laws • Law 1: User Control and Consent • More explicitly move beyond Mother’s Milk semantics of “user consent” • Larger domain of user-control, user-leveragability; Extensive and broad conceptualization of control, of consent • Law 2: Minimal Disclosure for a Constrained Use • Expand beyond identity security; remove shifting foundation (firms can adhere to this law by aggregation) • Express more important characteristics: • Responsibility for assisting users/all in disclosure and use Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

32. Explorations for Laws • Law 3: Law of Justifiable Parties • Consider what people do rather than their explanations • People justify many odd practices with identity: • Membership cards; information barter for trifles • Not aberrations; can’t discount or legislate or subvert • They control these assets; this is what they do • Discounts risks; inflate value • Underestimates speed of use; lifetime impact of breach Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

33. Passport: A Different Lesson? • Bandwagon economics suggest future where • Many companies will be involved in a firm’s customer relationships • Driven by firm’s needs, and behaviors of customers • And customer do allow, seek, controllers for identity • Passport was itself a disruptive technology • Bandwagon stalled: various reasons, incl: • Didn’t early- and widely-enough allow interlinking on identity, and among complementary suppliers • Didn’t offer users the power they desire to be suppliers of their own disruptive technology Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

34. Explorations for Laws • Law 4: Directed Identity • Cannot be exclusive or absolute • Not characteristic of system per se, but of user controls • Recall: Branding works just the opposite way: • Project a global contextualization (variability) • To create a local fixedness with customer (invariability) • Such as multiple distinctively-different branded websites • Implication: consistent with other Laws, this law might make explicit the necessity to be able to correlate and promote/demote a global ‘beacon’ for any aspect of identity. Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

35. Explorations for Laws • Law 5: Pluralism of Operators and Technologies • From new perspective there’s a non sequitur here: • We need “a simple encapsulating protocol” • Of course: Need to ways for many, multiple, potentially very different, identity technologies to interoperate. • Path of innovation depends on: Enable inventions of ‘incompatible’ systems and services • Maybe same name, same polytheistic quality: • Every ‘identity technology’ incorporate (perhaps by reference) • The means for deployers (without substantial acts of invention) • To realize for users full external interlinking and 3rd-Party Svcs Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

36. Explorations for Laws • Law 6: Human Integration • Awareness and tone here of unanswered questions is about right; temper tone of identity security • Awareness that identity is something users create and distribute • Attention to human experience dimension • Temper the communications metaphor: need for predictable ceremony: • Over a very limited aspect of that domain • Recognize: • Consistency in principles, not manifestation Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

37. Explorations for Laws • Law 7: Consistent Experience Across Contexts • Again: • Consistency in principles, not manifestation • Temper or balance the Law of Identity Security aspect • Issued identities: Avoid “Any color as long as it is black” • Reverse conflation of identity and identifier and credentials • Identity requires only that parties agree on how the relying party will verify the identifier for that purpose – not that identifier be issued by 3rd-party • Our bandwagon will be stuck … if users can’t monetize their actions with all identities • Thingifying: In as many forms as today in user documents and actions. Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

38. The Identity Internet • New identity fundamentally a new, disruptive technology • Controlled by new providers, under new terms • Necessitates need to develop bandwagon economics around identity • Otherwise identity limited to operational and risk domains • Bandwagon returns from broad interlinking, 3rd-party complementary bandwagon services • Requires, then, a particular kind of identity technology • Integral approach in stack through to user level Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA

39. Thank you Nick Ragouzis, Enosis Group http://identityeconomics.com/resources/identitybandwagon.iiw05.pdf http://identityeconomics.com/resources/identitybandwagon.iiw05.ppt Bandwagon Economics and the Identity Internet IIW2005, Berkeley CA