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Emissions Trends from Developed and Developing Countries: Insights for LDC Negotiators

This workshop held in Bali, Indonesia, on November 29-30, 2007, delves into emissions data and trends observed in both developed and developing nations. Key sources of data include reports from UNFCCC, IPCC, IEA, and CAIT, analyzing greenhouse gas emissions across various countries and identifying growth patterns. Findings reveal that emissions growth is highest among developing countries, shaped by factors such as GDP, population, and energy use. Understanding these trends is crucial for LDC negotiators in the context of international climate discussions.

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Emissions Trends from Developed and Developing Countries: Insights for LDC Negotiators

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  1. Emissions Data and Trends from Developed and Developing Countries ______________ Pre COP Workshop for LDC Negotiators 29-30 November 2007 Bali, Indonesia Ilona Millar FIELD

  2. Where does the Data come from? • UNFCCC • National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (FCCC/SBI/2007/30) • National Communications from Annex I Parties (FCCC/SBI/2007/INF.6 & add.1) • National communications from Non-Annex I Parties (FCCC/SBI/2005/18/Add.2) • IPCC • IEA • WRI • CAIT • Earth Trends • Navigating the Numbers

  3. Emission profiles vary greatly between countries

  4. Annex I Emissions 1990 - 2005

  5. FCCC/SBI/2007/30

  6. FCCC/SBI/2007/30

  7. FCCC/SBI/2007/30

  8. Annex I Trends • Excluding LULUCF • Total AI -2.8% • EIT -35.2% • Non-EIT +11% • Including LULUCF • Total AI -4.6% • EIT -36.2% • Non-EIT +10%

  9. Annex I Trends including LULUCF • 1990-1995 • Fell 6.9% • 1995-2000 • Rose 1.3% • 2000-2004 • Rose 2.4%

  10. FCCC/SBI/2007/30

  11. Ex LULUCF Australia +25.6 Canada +25.3 USA +16.3 Japan +6.9 EU -1.5 UK -14 Germany -18 Incl LULUCF Australia +4.9 Canada +54.2 USA +18.4 Japan +7.4 EU -4 UK -15.4 Germany -19.5 Changes in AI emissions 1990-2005

  12. FCCC/SBI/2007/30

  13. FCCC/SBI/2007/30

  14. Non-Annex I Emissions as reported based on best available data in 2005

  15. FCCC/SBI/2005/18.Add.2

  16. Non-AI emissionsGgtonnes CO2e • Botswana 9,291 -29,441 • Congo 1,374 -68,485 • China 4,057,306 3,649,827 • India 1,214,248 1,228,540 • Indonesia 323,262 487,380

  17. FCCC/SBI/2005/18.Add.2

  18. FCCC/SBI/2005/18.Add.2

  19. Analysis of Trends

  20. Figure 2.3. Aggregate Contributions of Major GHG Emitting Countries

  21. Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Comparison of Different Time Periods

  22. Source: WRI Cait

  23. What are the trends? • Global growth in emissions • Growth rates highest among developing countries • Contributing factors – GDP/Capita, Population, Energy intensity, Fuel mix

  24. Future Projections

  25. FCCC/SBI/2007/INF.6

  26. % Percent change from 2000 Figure 3.1 WRI. Projected Emissions of GHGs in 2025

  27. (Stabilization Scenarios from WGIII, 4 May 2007, Figure SPM 5)

  28. FIELD www.field.org.uk ilona.millar@field.org.uk Tel: +44 20 7388-2117 Fax: +44 20 7388-2826 3 Endsleigh Street London WC1H 0DD United Kingdom

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