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Pakistan: The Sunni Bomb. Yousaf Gilani Prime Minister. Asif Zardari: Corrupt President. Pervez Musharref: deposed General and former (and future?)President. Robber : “Give me all your money!” Zardari : “Don’t you know who I am? I am Asif Ali Zardari.” Robber : “OK. Give me all my money”
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Pervez Musharref: deposed General and former (and future?)President.
Robber: “Give me all your money!”Zardari: “Don’t you know who I am? I am Asif Ali Zardari.”Robber: “OK. Give me all my money” • Q: How many zardari jokes are there on the Internet?A: Only one. The rest are all true.
President Zardari • Military leader Musharraf was forced out and an election with ex Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was to be held. She was assassinated by Islamic extremists and her husband, Zardari took over. Bhutto was running on an anti Taliban platform • She was Western leaning • Maintains a weak hold over government. • The military and secret service, the ISI, maintain much of the power • Thought by many to be corrupt.
Population is 181 million, more than half of the United States. • 2nd Largest Muslim country in the world, behind Indonesia. • 43% of the population is under 15. • U.S. 20% under 15.
Ethnic groups • 95% Muslim (75% Sunni; 20% Shiite) • Punjabi 44%, • Pashtu 15% (mostly in West, near Afghanistan (Tribal reserve, Swat Valley, Taliban), • Balance made up of various smaller ethnic groups.
Government • Capitol Islamabad, northeast of country, very close to tribal lands bordering Afghanistan and Kashmir. Dominated by Punjabis • Parliamentary democracy with huge military influence, with routine coups. (might say the military really rules the country, with the ISI, the Pakistani security forces) • Many believe much of government run by secret service, the ISI who has close ties to Islamic extremist.
Economics • Inflation rate 14%, • National debt 50% of GDP (U.S 100%) • They have no oil. • Growth 4.8%, largely because of U.S. aid • Underdeveloped, huge inflation rate, dependent on foreign aid. • In 2008 U.S. gave them 12 billion in aid about ½ their budget.
Demographics: Pop 175 million • GDP: $2600 ($U.S.: 46000) • Life Expectancy: 65 years • Below poverty: 24% • Unemployment: 15% • Literacy rate: 50% (63% male, 36% females)
Pakistani History • In the early 16th C. the Moguls, Muslims from central Asia (Kabul, Samarkand) conquered northern India (Delhi) and established a Muslim empire there, in what was, at the time, India. • Moguls was a catch all group of descendants of the Mongols, Arabs and Central Asians • Akbar the Great was the first Mogul ruler of Northern India • They built the Taj Mahal, the hanging gardens and other wonders. • They also built mosques on top of Hindu temples. Still a GREAT deal of resentment between Hindus and Muslims in India and between India and Pakistan.
Taj Mahal, built as mausoleum to Mogul leader Shah Jahan’s wife. ca 1631
British Rule • The British Raj took over the region in the 18th and 19th century. • Became the Northern most frontier of the “Jewel of the Empire.” • Where the opium from Opium War came from. • After World War II, Britain began to dismantle it’s empire. • Imperialism was on the way out • Expensive to maintain.
Great Britain gives up rule after WWII • Wide scale fighting between Muslims and Hindus began after independence from Britain • Britain partition parts of Northern India into two separate states, India (Hindu, with 1 million Muslims) and Pakistan (99% Muslim). • Punjabi was divided into two parts. • The possession of the Northern state of Kashmir and Jammu, with a majority Muslim population, but with Hindu leader has been hotly contested ever since.
Since the partition • India and Pakistan have been at each others throats, mainly over Kashmir. • Both India(1974s) and Pakistan(1980-90s) developed nuclear weapons. • Many believe the next nuclear war will be between these two nations. • Whenever discussing Pakistan, remember that India, not the Taliban, are their true enemy and who they worry about.
Inidian Pakistani conflict • Wars: • 1947 • 1965 • 1971 (after which India gets the bomb) • Clashes: 84, 85, 87, 95 (Pakistan builds its (Sunni) Islamic Bomb • 1999 • 2001: after Pakistani extremist took over Indian Parliament, with help of ISI, 500K Indian troops massed on border. • If nukes launched 12 million would have died immediately, many more from radiation. • Pakistan could not win without nukes.
Pakistan and Kashmir • This is the big internal issue in Pakistan. • The security forces, the ISI, trained Pakistani fundamentalists for attacks in India and Kashmir, attempting to emulate Afghan success against the Soviets. • Punjabis are the largest ethnic group in Pakistan and the majority in Kashmir.
A.Q. Khan • Was the father of Pakistan’s nuclear program, some feel just a publicity hound. • Stole most of his knowledge when working in Dutch nuclear industry • Khan confessed to selling nuclear secrets to Iraq, Libya, Iran (Shiite bomb) and North Korea • He was released from jail in 2009. • He is a national hero in Pakistan
Kahn • Helped Iran develop a Shiite bomb. • Wanted to support his opulent lifestyle. • After we were forced to cut of military aid once we knew they had the bomb, they looked elsewhere for money, and all they really had to sell was their nuclear technology.
U.S. Policy: a history • Remember: From 1948 to 1990 all U.S. foreign policy was about the Cold War “containment policy” of Truman. • Containing the Soviet Union where ever they went. And • Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD): if two competing countries each had the bomb, then no war would occur.
U.S. Policy: a history • India in the 70s was a leader of non-aligned countries. • They fought skirmishes with China over Kashmir interests and flirted with the Soviets for protection. • The U.S. allied itself with Pakistan as “our boy” in the region and supplied them with weapons. • The U.S. had to certified countries as nuclear weapon free to continue sending weaponry by U.S. law.
U.S. Policy: a history • OPEC oil embargo of 73 made U.S. more aware of Middle East oil.
1979 • In 1979, the Iranian Revolution gave Shiite Clerics control of 4th leading oil producer. • 1979 Soviets invaded Afghanistan. • Pakistan was our dog in the hunt.
U.S. Policy: a history • 1980 Regan elected and brought with him Cheney (leader in house), Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz and Gates (CIA). ( • The same group that helped Iran get nuclear materials during the Shah and Gerald Ford’s administration, architects of our Iraq war. • They wanted to help arm Pakistan as ally against Soviets in Afghanistan. • Had to certify them as nuclear free. • Took a blind eye to nuclear bomb development of AQ Khan. • Intelligence knew that Pakistan had bomb.
In 1980-1988 • Saddam Hussein and Iraq invades Iran, thinking that the Ayatollah’s regime was weak. • The U.S. sells arms and trains the Iraqi army. • War drags on for ten years, million plus die, ends in a stalemate. • Saddam kills Kurdish and Shiite Iraqi civilian with poison gasses and helicopter gunships.
U.S. Policy: a history • Pakistan developed the bomb during the mid-1980s, date on when they actually had it unclear.
Benazhir Bhutto: Wife of Zardari • In one incident, Benzair Bhutto, the Prime Minister (1988-1996) didn’t know they had a bomb, but our CIA did. • The “in crowd”, used Bhutto’s assurances, not the intelligence they had, to certify Pakistan nuclear free, so they could continue to sell arms to them. • Besides, MAD was the optimum deterrent. • Bhutto also was told about a nuclear cooperation deal with Iran, but an Iranian who assumed she knew about it. She didn’t.
1990 The First Gulf War • Saddam Hussein and Iraq invades Kuwait, whom he claimed should have been an Iraqi province. • His troops line up on the Saudi border • Our fear was that he would take both oil producing countries. • He was broke after Iran Iraq War.
1st World Trade Center Bombing 1993 • Ramzi Yousef and his gang, including a Pakistani National, attempt to blow up WTC with a car bomb in the Garage. • Funded by Khalid Sheik Mohammed, admitted to masteminding 9-11 attacks eight years later. • The guy we waterboarded 186 times in a month, Yousef had attended Al Qaeda Training camps in Afghanistan.
In 1998, Musharraf deposes Bhutto under cloud of her husband’s corruption. The husband, Asif Zardari is the current P.M.
Cruise Missile attacks • In 1998, Al Qaeda bombs U.S. embassy in Kenya, killing mostly Kenyans. • Clinton order Cruise missile attacks on Al Qaeda camps in Sudan and Afghanistan. Osama Bin Ladin escapes.
U.S. Policy: a history • Bhutto Deposed by Musharraf after Gulf War and ruled until recently. 1998-2007. • Bhutto came back to run for Prime Minister after we pressured Musharraf to step down. • She was assassinated by Islamic Extremists, likely in cahoots with ISI. • Extremist attack Mumbai hotel and several other targets, killing 164. • Turn away if easily disturbed. • Musharraf has recently formed a political party, probably backed by military, and is going to run against Zardari.
The assasination • The assassins got right up next to her, even though security knew her life was threatened. • Some suspect that the ISI was behind the assassination or at least knew about it.
U.S. Aid • In October, Obama asked for and got 7 Billion in aid. • Pakistan didn’t began attack in Waziristan until that money was approved. • Much of the 45 Billion we’ve given Pakistan since partition is unaccounted for. • Some believe money given to fight extremist has been diverted for anti Indian defense.
Big Issues • Economy • Relations with India/Kashmir • Threat of Taliban from West, America’s interest. • Loose Nukes, securing the nukes in case of fundamentalists take over. American military and Pakistani military believe they are secured. • Government instability.
Nuclear War • Currently Pakistan controls 1/3 of disputed area and India ½. The rest is divide by line of control established as a cease fire zone in 1965, hotly contested. (China controls parts of the North eastern region.) (3 NUCLEAR armed states and a disputed area.) • Wars fought: • 1947: borders established then • 1965: UN controlled area • 1971 • Several incidents in the 1980s • 2001-2002: standoff with both sides amassing troops on borders. • Many feel this is the mostly likely place of the next NUCLEAR WAR.
