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Trends in job quality during the Great Recession: a comparative multi-dimensional approach for the EU

Trends in job quality during the Great Recession: a comparative multi-dimensional approach for the EU. Christine Erhel CEE, Université Paris 1 Based on a paper co - authored by M. Guergoat - Larivière (CNAM) ,

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Trends in job quality during the Great Recession: a comparative multi-dimensional approach for the EU

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  1. Trends in job quality during the Great Recession: a comparative multi-dimensional approach for the EU Christine Erhel CEE, Université Paris 1 Based on a paperco-authored by M. Guergoat-Larivière (CNAM) , Janine Leschke(Department of Business and Politics, Copenhagen Business School), and A. Watt (IMK) Flexwork, Amsterdam, 25th of october 2013

  2. Structure of the presentation • Job quality as a multi-dimensional concept • Whatdynamicsduring the Great Recession? Aggregate and individual descriptive results • Job quality trends and labour market institutions

  3. 1-Job quality: a multi-dimensional concept • Institutionaldefinitions of job quality -ILO approach: DecentWorkindicators (1999) -EU approach: Laeken indicators (2001)+ EmploymentCommittee discussions since 2010 -Since 2007 an integration of the twoapproaches (Task Force thenExpert Group UNECE/ILO/EUROSTAT): a common set of indicators is at the disposal of national statistical offices -Other institutions have alsoproposedsuch multi-dimensionaldefinitions (Eurofound) • Main dimensions of job qualityaccording to these international approaches -Employment conditions (wages, labour contrat…) -Working conditions (physicalenvironment, hours, workintensity…) -Training opportunities -Genderequality and work-familyreconciliation • Empiricalstudiesbased on such a multi-dimensionalframework have been numerous in the 2000s ETUI job quality index Employment in Europe report (2008) based on Davoine et al (2008) Eurofound (2012) • But alsosome analyses focusing on one dimension For instance on wages and employment structure (using LFS, Eurofound 2008 and 2011), working conditions (using EWCS, Greenanet al, 2012; Amossé, Kalugina, 2013; Green, Mostafa, 2012)

  4. 1-Job quality: a multi-dimensional concept • Over the 1990s and 2000s, an increasing trend in job quality as measured by synthetic indexes… -Dimensions contributing the most to this trend=training opportunities/ genderequality/in work accidents -Some (but limited) convergence in the EU -And persistingdifferencesacrosssectors, by social groups (educationlevel…) -…as wellas somecontradictory trends (work intensification, precarity, polarized job creations on the wagescale…) • Whatdynamicsduring the Great Recession? 3 conflictinghypotheses -Bargaining power hypothesis: highunemploymentleadstoweakerbargaining power ofworkersandthustodecliningjobquality -Composition-effecthypothesis: economiccrisisleadstoshake-out oflow-productivity 'bad' jobswithstatisticaleffectofhigheraveragejobquality -Perception effecthypothesis: « perceived » and declared job qualitymightbeincreased in a crisiscontext

  5. 1-Job quality: a multi-dimensional concept • Our analysis for the crisisperiod combines 2 levels -Aggregatelevelusing LFS, EWCS, EU-SILC, and the JQI methodology: job quality trends at the country levelbetween 2005 and 2010 -Individuallevelusing EU-SILC panel : job quality trends for individuals in the panel between 2007 and 2009 -The twolevels are complementary in terms of observation period (constrained for EWCS survey, more flexible for EU-SILC panel) and dimensions considered (much more limited in SILC panel)

  6. 2-Whatdynamicsduring the Great Recession? Methodology and data • Step1-Aggregate analysisbased on JQI • JQI allows comparisons between EU 27 countries, over time ((2000), 2005 and 2010) and between men and women • Assesment of overalljobquality and jobquality in different sub-fields (using LFS, EWCS, EU-SILC, ICTWSS, AMECO): • wages • Involuntary non-standard employment (inverted) • working time and work-life balance • working conditions and job security • skills and career development • collective interest representation Descriptive analysis on country and gender trends in aggregate job quality • Step 2-Individual analysis based on EU-SILC panel Compared to JQI multi-dimensionalframework, only a few dimensions/variables are available: • Wages (for 17 countries) • Non standard employment: temporary labour contract; part time(self-declared) • Working time: weekly working time • Skills and career development: occupational mobility (ISCO) Descriptive analysis and multi-nomialmultilevellogitmodels for individuals in employment in 2007

  7. Developments in overall JQI by country between 2005 et 2010 Source: Erhel, Guergoat-Larivière, Leschke, Watt (2012)

  8. Most pronounced negative and positive changesbysub-index – 2005-2010 Source: Erhel, Guergoat-Larivière, Leschke, Watt (2012)

  9. Developments in JQI dimensions between 2005 et 2010 (EU average) Source: Erhel, Guergoat-Larivière, Leschke, Watt (2012)

  10. Relationship between unemployment rate changes and changes in „not worried about losing job“, 2005-2010 Source: Erhel, Guergoat-Larivière, Leschke, Watt (2012) 10

  11. Change in the unemployment rate between 2005 and 2010 and change in the overall JQI, 2005-2010 Source: Erhel, Guergoat-Larivière, Leschke, Watt (2012) 11

  12. Aggregate and individuallevel trends:temporary jobs between 2007 and 2009 (EU-SILC) Share of temporaryemployment Transitions fromtemporaryemployment 2007-2009

  13. 2-Whatdynamicsduring the Great Recession?Aggregate and individual descriptive results • JQI and somedynamicsbased on individual data show… • For the EU average: improvement in working conditions (intensity, autonomy), hoursworked, and work-life balance. Degradation for wages, involuntary non-standard employment, job security perception. Stability for training. • Heterogeneityacross countries and hardlyany convergence. For France, all dimensions follownegative trends: increase in involuntarytemporary jobs, in jobs insecurity feeling, long hours, decrease in training opportunities… • +Heterogeneity by individualcharacteristics: youth, lowqualified and olderworkersexperience the mostnegativetrajectoriesbetween 2007 et 2009 • To enhance the analysis of the links betweenindividual and country characteristics, we use multi-levelmodelling

  14. 3-Job quality trends, individualcharacteristics and labour market institutions: a multi-levelanalysis • In oursampleweconsiderindividualswho are employed in 2007. For thoseemployed in 2009 weconstructa variable indicating a decrease in job quality:either a transition from permanent towardstemporary job, or from full time to part time, or a descendingoccupationalmobility (fromhigh-skilled to low-skilled jobs). • Usingmulti-nomialmultilevellogits, wemodelizeprobabilities to experience the following situations in 2009: non employment; in employmentwith a lowerquality job; in employmentwith no degradation in job quality. This last situation istaken as a reference. • Explanatory variables are the following: - Individuallevel: age, gender, educationlevel, childrenunder 16, having a childbetween 2007 and 2009, experience of unemployment in 2008; -Country level: employment composition by sector, GDP and unemployment variations, employment protection legislation, labour marketpolicy

  15. Results of the best fit model Source: EU-SILC individual data (longitudinal database from 2007 to 2009) and aggregated data from Eurostat and OECD. 57149 individuals aged 15 to 64; 20 countries.

  16. 3-Job quality trends, individualcharacteristics, and labour market institutions: a multi-levelanalysis • Individualdeterminants of job qualityevolution -probability of NE and decrease in JQ ishigher for: youth, olderworkers, low-educated, people havingexperiencedunemploymentbetween 2007 and 2009. -bothprobabilities are lower for individualshavingchildren (under 16). The effect of childbirthis not significant for JQ (but positive on the probability to be NE). -being a womanincreasesprobability of NE and decreasesprobability of decrease in JQ. • Country levelfactorsinfluencing job qualityevolution EPL: no effect on JQ (decreasesprobability of NE) LMP expenditure: small positive effect on JQ trends Unemployment variation: increasesbothprobabilities of NE and JQ decrease Sectors: no effectexcept for tertiaryemploymentsharethatdecreases the probability to experience JQ deterioration for women

  17. Conclusions • Both JQI and individualanalysisconfirm the heterogeneity of job quality trends in times of crisis: • Acrosssub-populations • Acrosscountries Someevidence for composition-effecthypothesis: reduction in very high weeklyworkinghours, lowerworkintensity, higherworkautonomy • Someexplanatoryfactors for inter-country differences: -Size of the macroeconomic and labour marketshock: confirms the bargaining power hypothesis -Share of employment in the differentsector: matters for women (tertiarysector) -Institutions and policies: smalleffect of LMP

  18. References Amossé T. , Kalugina E. (2012), “More and Better Jobs in Europe. Really? A Micro-statistical Analysis of Links between Work Quality and Job Dynamics in Ten European Countries (1995–2005)”, Centre d’études de l’emploi, document de travail n° 162. Amossé T. , Kalugina E. (2013), « Qualité du travail et dynamique de l’emploi en Europe pendant la crise (2005-2010) », à paraître dans un ouvrage collectif CEE (coord. C. Spieser). Davoine L., Erhel C. (2007), « La qualité de l’emploi en Europe : une approche comparative et dynamique », Economie et Statistique, n° 410, p. 47-69. Davoine L., Erhel C., Guergoat-Larivière M., 2008, ‘Monitoring Employment Quality in Europe: European Employment Strategy Indicators and Beyond’, International Labour review, september, No. 147 (2-3), pp.163-198. EMCO [Employment Committee] (2011): “Indicators on quality in work: taking stock of existing material and indicators”, INDIC/08/110311/EN Erhel C., Gautié J., Gazier B., (2013), “Job quality as an objective of the European Employment Strategy”, inBarbier J-C., Collomb F., Rogowski R. (dir, 2012), The sustainability of the European Social Model, Edward Elgar. Erhel C., Guergoat-Lariviere M., Leschke J., Watt A. (2012), “Trends in job quality during the Great Recession: a comparative approach for the EU”, Document de travail du CEE, novembre2012. Eurofound (2008), More and better jobs? Patterns of employment expansion in Europe – ERM report 2008, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg (authors Fernández-Macías, E. and Hurley, J.). Eurofound (2011), Shifts in the job structure in Europe during the Great RecessionPublications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg (authors Hurley J., Storrie D., with Jean-Marie Jungblut) Eurofound (2012), Trends in Job Quality in Europe, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg (authors F. Green and T. Mostafa) Greenan N., Kalugina E., Walkowiak E. (2010), “Trends in Quality of Work in the EU-15:Evidence from the European Working Conditions Survey (1995-2005)”, Centre d’études de l’emploi, document de travail n° 133. ILO, 1999 Report of the Director General “Decent work”, International Labour Office, Geneva. http://www.ilo.org/public/english/standards/relm/ilc/ilc87/rep-i.htm Leschke J., Watt A., Finn M., 2012, “Job Quality in the Crisis –An Update of the Job Quality Index (JQI)”, ETUI Working Paper 2012.07, European Trade Union Institute, Brussels. Leschke, J. / A. Watt (2013) Challenges in Constructing a Multi-dimensional European Job Quality Index, in: Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal of Quality-of-Life Measurement: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11205-013-0405-9#page-1

  19. Over the 1990s and 2000s, an increasing trend in job quality…Job Quality Index (Davoine et al, 2008)

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