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Ilia Ilyin, EMEP/MSC-E

Evaluation of concentrations of air pollutants and depositions of HMs over the EECCA and SEE regions. Ilia Ilyin, EMEP/MSC-E. EMEP/MSC-E. TFHM , May 14 - 1 6, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia. Involvement of EECCA/SEE countries in the Convention processes is one of the priorities of CLRTAP.

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Ilia Ilyin, EMEP/MSC-E

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  1. Evaluation of concentrations of air pollutants and depositions of HMs over the EECCA and SEE regions Ilia Ilyin, EMEP/MSC-E EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  2. Involvement of EECCA/SEE countries in the Convention processes is one of the priorities of CLRTAP • Convention Action plan for EECCA countries (ECE.EB.AIR/WG.5/2007/17) • Programme for providing EECCA countries with practical and methodological support(EMEP) • Joint activities/workshops of EMEP Centres and national experts (emissions, monitoring, modelling … ) • Participation of national experts in Task Forces including financial support from EMEP • Dissemination of materials available in Russian • Expanding of EMEP monitoring network • Extension of EMEP domain to cover Central Asian countries EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  3. Contents • Inclusion of the Central Asian Countries in EMEP domain • Emission data • Monitoring network • Model results and verification • Cooperation with Working Group of Effects EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  4. Extension of EMEP domain EMEP domain 135 EMEP domain Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan 1 1 111 EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  5. Information for the extended domain: For 2005 - Pb For 2006 and on - Pb, Cd andHg Extension of EMEP domain Extension of EMEP domain in order to include territories of Central Asian countries 135 Extended EMEP domain Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan 1 1 111 159 EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  6. Emission data • “Guidelines for estimating and reporting emissions”(ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2007/15) • “EMEP/CORINAIR Emission Inventory Guidebook” Requirements for emission reporting: • Total emission data from a country • Gridded emissions with 50-km resolution • Sector emission data • Information on large point sources EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  7. Emission data Completeness of heavy metals emission data (totals for countries) for Pb, Cd and Hg in EECCA and SEE countries (1990 - 2005) EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  8. Emission data Emission data on lead in EECCA and SEE countries for 2005 EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  9. Emission data Emissions of lead in 2005 kg/km2/y Kazakhstan: – data for 2002-2006 are available EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  10. Emission data Emission data for cadmium and mercury in EECCA and SEE countries for 2005 (over “old” EMEP domain) EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  11. Extension of EMEP domain Extension of EMEP domain in order to include territories of Central Asian countries 135 Extended EMEP domain Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan 1 1 111 159 EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  12. EECCA and SEE countries Source of data Belarus, Croatia, Republic of Moldova, Russia (European part), Ukraine Official reporting Albania, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Georgia, Kazakhstan, The FYR Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro Expert estimates (TNO); Hg – Pacyna et al, 2000 (global data) Emission data Emission data for cadmium and mercury in EECCA and SEE countries for 2005 (over “old” EMEP domain) EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  13. Emission data Emissions of mercury, 2005 g/km2/y EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  14. Emission data Emissions of cadmium, 2005 g/km2/y EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  15. Emission data Wind re-suspension of heavy metals (Pb, 2005) kg/km2/y kg/km2/y Wind re-suspension Anthrop. emissions ~ 9 kt / y ~ 5.5kt / y Data from EECCA and SEE (wind re-suspension, metal concentrations in soils …) are highly appreciated! EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  16. EMEP stations (2006) Planned stations Monitoring • “EMEP monitoring strategyand measurement programme 2004-2009” (EB.AIR/GE.1/2004/5) • “EMEP manual for sampling and chemical analysis” (http://www.nilu.no/projects/ccc/manual/index.html) Heavy metal monitoring network EECCA countries SEE countries EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  17. Modelling of heavy metal transboundary pollution (MSCE-HM) • Model output: • Concentration and deposition fields • Transboundary transport • Long-term trends • Ecosystem-dependent depositions Detailed description: Travnikov O. and Ilyin I., 2005. Regional model MSCE-HM of heavy metal transboundary air pollution in Europe. EMEP/MSC-E Technical report 6/2005 TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia EMEP/MSC-E

  18. CZ1 CZ1 06.11.2005 01.09.2005 Model verification Comparison with measurement data Cd air concentrations (2005) at station CZ1 (Czech Republic) EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  19. Model verification Review of EMEP models (ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2006/4) “The HM model …. was appropriate for the operational modelling of heavy metals at the regional scale” Uncertainty analysis Model uncertainty~30-40% (Pb, Cd) Measurement uncertainty~30 - 40% Emission data uncertainty~2-3 раза EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  20. Model assessment Air concentrations of lead in 2005 (CAPACT) EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  21. Model assessment Depositions of lead in 2005. EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  22. Model assessment Depositions of lead in 2005 (Caucasus) Depositions Total emissions Precipitation EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  23. Model assessment Depositions of lead in 2005 (Caucasus) Depositions Total emissions Precipitation EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  24. Model assessment Heavy metal deposition fluxes over EECCA and SEE countries (2005) Pb 0.2 – 2.1 kg/km2/y Cd 3 – 160 g/km2/y Hg 2 – 30 g/km2/y Pb (mean value and scattering) EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  25. Model assessment Depositions of Pb from Kazakhstan sources in 2005 (CAPACT project) Lead depositions from Kazakhstan sources in 2005 Transboundary transport of lead from Kazakhstan sources in 2005 EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  26. Model assessment Transboundary pollution of lead over Central Asian countries Iran, China, … Contribution of different sources to depositions in Kazakhstan Contribution of transboundary transport to depositions from anthropogenic sources To improve these estimates - global-scale modelling EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  27. EMEP global model • Main tasks: • Evaluate EMEP region pollution by external sources • Link global, regional, and local scales • Evaluate influence of European sources on remote regions • Provide estimates of intercontinental transport and levels of pollution on global scale

  28. Model assessment Contributions of transboundary transport and national sources to anthropogenic depositions in EECCA and SEE countries (2005) Transboundary transport: Pb 30 - 90 % Cd 15 - 95 % Hg 25 - 85 % Pb Global sources: 5 – 80% EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  29. Contribution to effect-based approach (in cooperation with the Working Group on Effects) Depositions of lead to coniferous forests in 2005 EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  30. Contribution to effect-based approach Depositions of lead to crop lands in 2005 EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  31. Country-specific reports www.msceast.org EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  32. Emissions Air concentrations Deposition flux Detailed country-specific information Belarus Country’s emissions Contribution of external sources EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  33. Detailed country-specific information Depositions from a country Depositions to a country EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  34. CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION EMEP Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation ofthe Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe Transboundary pollution by HMs and POPs Belarus Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-East Detailed country-specific information EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  35. Conclusions • Territories of the Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan ) were entirely included into the EMEP domain • Emission data were officially reported by 6 EECCA and SEE countries. For other countries emission expert estimates were applied • Wind re-suspension can significantly contribute to heavy metal pollution levels in EECCA and SEE countries, especially in Central Asia. Collaboration of these countries with EMEP in the field of wind re-suspension evaluation is highly appreciated. • The work on establishment of several monitoring stations in EECCA and SEE countries is carried out under supervision of EMEP/CCC. EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

  36. Conclusions (cont.) • While monitoring network is scarce, measurement - modelling approach is used within EMEP. • Uncertainties of the emission data (a factor of 2-3) are much larger than those for model results and monitoring data (30 - 40%). In order to reduce uncertainties of pollution levels much attention should be paid by countries to quality of their national emission data • In EECCA and SEE countries the contribution of transboundary transport to heavy metal depositions from anthropogenic sources ranges from 15 to 95%. The accuracy of these values can be improved by means of global-scale modelling. • Detailed country-specific information for each country for 2006 will be available through the Internet (www.msceast.org). A hard copy of the country-specific reports can be prepared by request. EMEP/MSC-E TFHM,May14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

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