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RT5: Evaluation

RT5: Evaluation. Albert Klein Tank & Elisa Manzini. RT5: Evaluation. Albert Klein Tank & Elisa Manzini. Objective : to perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble simulation/prediction system against observations/analyses. Achievements.

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RT5: Evaluation

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  1. RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Elisa Manzini ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  2. RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Elisa Manzini Objective: to perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble simulation/prediction system against observations/analyses ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  3. Achievements • With some delay, all RT5 deliverables and milestones are met ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  4. Achievements • With some delay, all RT5 deliverables and milestones are met ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  5. Achievements global multidecadal global s2d regional multidecadal impact models • With some delay, all RT5 deliverables and milestones are met ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  6. Achievements global multidecadal • Evaluation of global models used in multidecadal simulations (RT2a) • D5.15: impact of improved land-surface physics on the simulation of the Boreal summer surface climate (INGV) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  7. Achievements global multidecadal global s2d • Evaluation of forecastquality with global models in s2d simulations (RT2a) • D5.11: representation of the tropical intra seasonal variability and its impact on seasonal predictability (IPSL) • D5.12: predictability in perfect-model mode over the North Atlantic/European sector (IfM) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  8. Achievements global multidecadal global s2d regional multidecadal • Evaluation of regional models used in multidecadal simulations, with focus on extremes (RT2b and RT3) • D5.18: ENSEMBLES daily gridded dataset for Europe (UEA) • D5.20: observational station data collected for the ENSEMBLES daily gridded dataset for Europe (KNMI) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  9. Achievements global multidecadal global s2d regional multidecadal impact models • Evaluation of impact models (RT6) • D5.13: challenges of interpreting and application of an ensemble of imperfect models on seasonal time scales (LSE) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  10. Achievements global multidecadal global s2d regional multidecadal impact models • Some examples: ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  11. GCM representation of vertical circulation regimes (ω500 dynamical proxy) for tropical eastern Pacific -> double ITCZ syndrome (INGV) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  12. Evaluation of DEMETER Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability ISV (Xavier, LMD) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  13. KNMI Climate Explorer  ENSEMBLES data server(climexp.knmi.nl by Van Oldenborgh, KNMI) Select data in the Climate Explorer Data is retrieved from ECMWF s2d server with OpenDAP Available for analysis, e.g. skill scores ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  14. RPSSD 0 1 -0.5 0.5 Multi-model (equal weights) T2m JJA forecast, ini: May, DEMETER, 1960-2001 cross-validation using modified ranked probability skill score RPSS (Weigel et al., MeteoSwiss) -1 ECMWF UKMO ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  15. RPSSD 0 1 -0.5 0.5 T2m JJA forecast, ini: May, DEMETER, 1960-2001 cross-validation using modified ranked probability skill score RPSS (Weigel et al., MeteoSwiss) -1 ECMWF Multi-model (weighted + climatology) (more orange + no blue) UKMO ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  16. ECA dataset for gridding (KNMI and MeteoSwiss) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  17. ECA dataset for gridding (KNMI and MeteoSwiss) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  18. ECA dataset for gridding (KNMI and MeteoSwiss) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  19. Best gridding method for daily rainfall(Hofstra et al., Oxford Univ.and Haylock et al., Univ. of East Anglia) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  20. Comparison with existing daily datasets(Hofstra et al., Oxford University) Daily precipitation Compound relative error score CRE ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  21. Comparison with ERA40(Hofstra et al., Oxford University) Daily Tmax RMSE ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  22. ECMWF seasonal forecast storms, %total insured value SwissRe portfolio (Della-Marta & Liniger, MeteoSwiss) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  23. Verification of wheat yield at the Bologna University experimental farm forecasted with DEMETER downscaled input (ARPA) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  24. Plans • Another 16 deliverables until the end of the project, including all-GCM evaluation efforts • Start of more regional work now that the RT5 observational data set and the RCM data are available • Note that good access to all data remains essential for RT5! ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

  25. RT5 review • Taken up the recommendation to further integrate RT5 work within ENSEMBLES: • Monday workshop on RCM and SDS evaluation(together with RT2b and RT3) • Thursday workshop on model error (with RT4) • Thursday workshop on weighting, credibility and reliability (with RT3; Geert Lenderink) ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

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