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The Future of Energy Jean-Michel Gires VP Sustainable Development and Environment Total

The Future of Energy Jean-Michel Gires VP Sustainable Development and Environment Total. Sustainable Development in TOTAL, why ?. Because sustainability issues are more and more important … Limited Resources (energy, raw materials, water, land, ecosystems …)

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The Future of Energy Jean-Michel Gires VP Sustainable Development and Environment Total

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  1. The Future of EnergyJean-Michel GiresVP Sustainable Development and EnvironmentTotal Towards Sustainable Development Brunei April 21st, 2007

  2. Sustainable Development in TOTAL, why ? • Because sustainability issues are more and more important … • Limited Resources (energy, raw materials, water, land, ecosystems …) • Damaged Environment (air, water, wastes, soils …) • Climate Change • … while Development question is still being asked everywhere … • 6 G inhabitants, maybe 10 G • 1 G in developed countries, 5 G in developing countries • Food, housing … but as well comfort, electricity, mobility … • Because Big Companies are to be important Civil Society partners … • Giving priority to their industrial and commercial challenges … • Not always motivated to explain themselves, even with their neighbours … • Lack of understanding with Civil Society as a normal consequence … Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  3. Sustainable Development in TOTAL, how ? In front of thesecivil society challenges, the company is putting at risk itslicence to operate, andits capacity to developin the medium long term; we therefore needa change in our practices • Better control and reduce our impacts • Better create value for all involved stakeholders • Better prepare the long term future Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  4. Energy Future : very important needs for developing countries Energy consumption per capita (toe) 1960-2001 or 1971-2001 US CANADA EUROPE JAPAN KOREA HONG KONG TAIWAN WORLD CHINA INDIA GDP per capita (k$1995 PPP) Source : IEA At least 1 G extra people on their way to modern development Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  5. Trend in car ownership : a huge growth potential for China and India Cars per 1000 persons Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  6. Energy : different uses at different development stages Primary Energy consumption Mb/j +2% Electricity +2% Transports +1,3% Heating +1,1% Industry Not the same issues for stationery uses, electricity and transport Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  7. Billions toe Billions tons 16,5 13 % 16 5.8 5% + 60% Hydro + Renewable 22 % 12 3.7 10,3 Nuclear 60 % 13 % Transport (fuels) 7% 25 % 8 Coal 23 % 55% 60% Pétrochemicals 21 % 21 % Gas Raw material 4 57% 35 % 24 % Heating 22 % 36 % Oil 5 % 8 % Électricity 0 2002 2030 2002 2030 Demand will keep growing, and Oil and Gas will stay essential in the short medium term Energy Demand Oil : transport importance Toe = Ton Oil Equivalent Source: AIE WEO 2004 Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  8. Proven Oil and Gas Reserves do allow to match these challenges … Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (G boe) • Oil and Gas Reserves: • Proven: > 2000 G boe • Additional: >1000 G boe Oil : proven reserves Gaz : proven reserves Proven Reserves / production (years) Gas Longer reserves for gas, but with a lower production Oil Proven Reserves are increased by Technology and Investments Investments are critical to increase production capacities Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  9. Oil Price keeps high not because of lack of capacity fears, not real market shortage … Stocks OCDE Demand Days WTI $/b (inversed scale) Stocks at 54 demand days at end 2006 Source : AIE Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  10. … because China Oil Consumption keeps increasing … Oil Production and Demand in China Mb/d 0,4 Imports = 0,4 0,2 0,9 47% of 2006 demand Auto-sufficiency 2007 (p) Production Demand Source : IEA Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  11. … because production capacity reserve is low … OPEC Production Capacity Reserve Mb/j Less than 2 Mb/j Source : IEA, Total estimate Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  12. Qwater Conventional Selective Qoil      Oil & Gas still have a lot to offer up to … Extra heavy oil: Recovery upgrading, Process integration Energy and C02 Seismic technology Acquisition Imagery ( PSDM….) Lithoseismic, 4D Gas Solutions Sour gas, CO2 H2S process, LNG Chemical conversion: GTL… Deeply Buried Reservoirs: Reservoir prediction High pressure drilling High temperature Mature fields EOR Debottlenecking Waater separation Tight gas Volume estimates Frac Well pattern Deep water: Subsea insstalations Flow assurance Qualifications Reservoir characterization Earthmodel Upscaling Fault description … no peak oil before at least 2025 … Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  13. Long termfutureNon-conventional oilschallenges 300? Billions of barrels oil equivalent 01.01.2006 CIS 300? Europe Middle East North America 100? Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Atlantic Offshore New fields : 100 G b Deep Offshore 600 G b Extra Heavy Oil Other fields : Arctic oil Source: Oil and Gas Journal, IEA Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  14. GNL GNL GNL TOTAL : to developNatural Gasby valuinglong distancegas sources $ GNL $ Trading Power generation Major Markets Group LNG flows $ In service or under construction I&C sales Regional upstream interest Gas pipeline LNG Terminal Under study Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  15. TOTAL presence in the Coal business 9,2 Mt sold in 2006 Other Atlantic Trading  0.5 Mt Asia Trading 2.5 Mt CDF Energie 2.2 Mt Asia Sales: 0.4 Mt Atlantic Sales 5.0 Mt Johannesburg • Production: 4.4 Mt in 2006 • Arthur Taylor Colliery (50%)production 4.1* 50%=2.0 Mt • Forzando (100 %) • production 1,5 Mt • Dorstfontein (75%) • production 0,8 * 0.75 = 0.6 Mt Richards Bay Terminal of Richards Bay 2004: 66 Mt achieved (dont. 2mt BEE) Accès de TOTAL : 6% (y.c.BEE) , ( 9 % avec ATC) Local sales RSA: 0.8 Mt Cape Town Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  16. Polypropylene Acrylonitrile Polyethylene Ethylene Glycol Alpha-olefins Syngas as an intermediary product for Synfuels Natural gas Heavy Oil Biomass Coal Acetic acid SYNGAS Formaldehyde (CO + H2) MTBE Motor fuels: Additives Methanol FT Synthesis GTL Hydrogen Olefins Fuel cells Ammonia Fuel cells DME Diesel motor fuel Kerosene Lubricants Alpha olefins Urea Diesel Motor fuel Substitute LPG Electricity Generation Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  17. Wind Solar Photovoltaic Geothermal Ocean Biomass Concentrating Solar Hydroelectricty Solar thermal … Renewable energies can increase their contribution … Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  18. But, as biomass is the only renewable source able to produce liquids, biofuels are more and more looked after Ethanol and ETBE for gasoline Iso butylene Sugar cane Sugar beet Cereals Sugars Preparation Fermentation and Purification Synthesis and purification Of ’ETBE Blending with gasoline and distribution • ETBE Ethanol Vegetable oils for diesel Rape Seed Sunflower Soy,… Trituration Extraction Purification Methanol / Éthanol Esterification and purification Of ’VOME Blending with Gasoil and distribution • VOME Vegetable Oil So far a limited contribution (35 Mtoe mainly Brazil & USA) but a fast growing one Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  19. New Energies : Biofuelschallenge 900 kt already blended by Total in Europe EMHV (gasoil pool) F .Mixed in refineries < 5% 250.000 t/y . Ecodiesel for captive fleets < 30% I . Mixed in terminals < 5% 15.000 t/y D . Mixed in 2 refineries (PCK, TRM) 130.000 t/y UK, B, NL . Under discussion RSA . Under study ETBE (gasoline pool) F . 3 production units (RF,RN,FZN) 210.000 t/y ESP(CEPSA) . 2 production units (Algeciras, Huelva) 100.000 t/y D (PCK) . 1 prod. unit (Schwedt) 85.000 t/y B . 1 prod. unit (RA) 235.000 t/y UK . Potential (MTBE-LOR) 110. 000 t/y Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  20. Due to resources limitations or conflicts with food markets, 2nd generation biofuels will be needed very soon 2010 Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  21. Decreasing Cost of PVSolar Cells Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  22. PV Solar: access to energy in South Africa Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  23. Spectacular progresses for Windmills … Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  24. HydrogenChallenge inGermany Plus BMW partnership in Munich • Station « Heerstrasse » in Berlin : • Inauguration March 2006. • Public distribution H2 (PV) + Private distribution H2 (Buses BVG) (ICE & FC). • LH2 + GH2 + Reformer GPL + 2 FCs. Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  25. NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 0.5 0.0 • 0.5 - 1.0 Données provenant de thermomètres (en rouge), de cerclesde croissance des arbres, de coraux, de carottesglaciaires et d’enregistrements historiques (en bleu) 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 2 000 Climate Change : a worrying situation … Global Temperature Change over 1000 years in °C, Zero Reference corresponding to 1961-1990 period Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  26. Climate Change : what can do an Oil & Gas Company as Total ? • Better understand the involved phenomena's, and bring our industrial competences on possible solutions • Better dominate our industrial operations • Better help our customers to reduce their emissions • Prepare the Energy System Evolution • Imagine and validate efficient and reliable solutions to capture and sequestrate CO2 Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  27. 98 2005 2012 Total operated flaring will continue to decreasedespite rising operated production Total’s operated fields Production Flaring • No flaring on new development • Flaring Reduction on existing fields • Acute Monitoring of flaring • Dedicated team • Elaboration of Technical & Business solution • Issues discussed with Partners and Governments • GGFR Standard & Support quite useful +24% +32% -40% -50% Total target : -50% 2005-2012 Beyond 2012 : Efforts are to be maintained and amplified if we want to keep reducing flaring Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  28. CO2Capture and Sequestration Pilot in Lacq Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

  29. Energy Future Challenges • Oil Resources will allow to meet the demand challenge for the next 20 years … • But with some probable difficulties to keep developing the production capacities at the necessary … • Gas, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewable will all be necessary to ease the constraints … • As well as a growing oil specialization in white products, especially motor fuels and petrochemicals … • At the same time, we’ll have to face the Climate Change challenge through … • More efficient industrial processes • Energy efficiency for all fossil energy users • Development of new options as CO2 capture and Sequestration Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007

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