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Towards a Scottish Balance of Payments

Towards a Scottish Balance of Payments. Sandy Stewart OCEA. Problems. Trade flows – modelled in Input-Output analysis – calendar year Fiscal flows – GERS analysis – financial year Poor quality trade data – especially Imports/ HMRC regional estimates

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Towards a Scottish Balance of Payments

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  1. Towards a Scottish Balance of Payments Sandy Stewart OCEA

  2. Problems • Trade flows – modelled in Input-Output analysis – calendar year • Fiscal flows – GERS analysis – financial year • Poor quality trade data – especially Imports/ HMRC regional estimates • Little information available about flows to and from the North Sea

  3. Scotland - Input-Output 2007 • Industry x Industry – basic prices - £billion • Exports to rest of UK £ 34.2 bn • Exports to rest of world £ 19.0 bn • Imports from rest of UK £ 44.2 bn • Imports from rest of world £ 21.5 bn • Net trade - £ 12.5 bn

  4. Scotland - SNAP 2008-09experimental • GDP(E) – market prices - £billion • Exports to rest of UK £ 33.7 bn • Exports to rest of world £ 20.4 bn • Imports from rest of UK £ 45.8 bn • Imports from rest of world £ 18.4 bn • Net trade - £ 10.1 bn

  5. North Sea analysisSCDI – Survey of International Activity in the Oil and Gas Sector 2008-09. Scottish Service/Supply Sales to the UK Domestic Market (UKCS) – 2008 - £ billion • Production/Equip/Materials £0.8 bn • Bulk Materials £0.7 bn • Services £6.3 bn • Eng/Proc/Const/Install £1.1 bn • Total £8.8 bn

  6. Regional Accounts – Extra Regio 2008 - £billion Public Admin and Defence • Compensation of employees £ 1.6 bn North Sea • Compensation of employees £ 1.5 bn • Gross operating surplus £35.3 bn Total GVA £38.5 bn SNAP – 2008/09 – pop/geog - GDP £30.5 bn

  7. GERS – Scottish Public Sector Finances – 2008/09 Onshore revenues £ 43.5 bn Offshore revenues £ 11.8 bn Total revenues £ 55.2 bn - TME £ 59.0 bn Net Fiscal Balance (excl NS) -£ 15.5 bn Net Fiscal Balance (geog NS) -£ 3.8 bn

  8. Net outflow of private finance – Scotland 2008/09 - £ billion Trade deficit excluding NS -£ 10.1 bn Trade deficit for NS +£ 30.5 bn Net fiscal balance excl NS -£ 15.5 bn North Sea revenues +£ 11.8 bn Net outflow of private finance +£ 16.7 bn

  9. Future work • Need better understanding of NS activity • Need North Sea satellite account • Need to adjust onshore analysis/SCDI ? • Need to set this in BoP framework • Challenge “balanced book” approach • Investigate other components (CoE in GDHI etc) • Consider apportionment methodologies • Help required!

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