The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS)

1. The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) Bruce Carmichael Forecasting Team Co-lead Weather IPT 303-497-8406

2. What We Face • 60-80% of traffic delays have a weather connection • If traffic counts grow anywhere near projections (JPDO NGATS), ability of current system to accommodate growth is essentially impossible • System breakdown unavoidable unless capacity grows by 2 to 3 times • Caveat: we must plan for a future still full of unknowns, never-the-less (airline difficulties, terrorism, natural calamity, etc.) • The system must have much more capacity and be safe

3. NGATS ORGANIZATIONS • Department of Transportation • Federal Aviation Administration • National Aeronautics and Space Administration • Department of Commerce • Department of Defense • Department of Homeland Security • Office of Science and Technology Planning • The NGATS Institute

4. 2025 NGATS Concept Operating Principles • “It’s about the users…” • System-wide transformation • Prognostic approach to safety assessment • Globally harmonized • Environmentally compatible to foster continued growth Key Capabilities • Net-Enabled Information Access • Performance-Based Services • Weather-Assimilated Decision Making • Layered, Adaptive Security • Broad-Area Precision Navigation • Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations • “Equivalent Visual” Operations • “Super Density” Operations

5. Organization Policy Culture Organization Culture Technology Technology Policy Technology Innovation System-Wide TransformationInnovation Across All Lines of Development Policy Change/Creation Organizational Innovation Culture Acceptance

6. Net-Enabled Information Access Global secure access, information handled according to “communities of interest” • “Shared Situation Awareness” • Real-time free-flow of info from private, commercial, & government sources, integrated internationally • Tailored, responsive and secure • Push/pull processes • Common awareness of day-to-day ops, events, crises • Aircraft are integral “nodes” in network • Integrated cooperative air traffic and non-cooperative national security surveillance

7. Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations Adjust airspace configuration to meet user needs • 4D trajectories (including taxi and roll-out) are basis for planning and execution • Machine-based trajectory analysis and separation assurance • Includes environmental performance throughout all phases of aircraft operations • Airspace configuration driven by: DoD/DHS requirements, domestic & international user needs, requirements for special-use airspace, safety, environment, overall efficiency • Airspace reconfigurable during day of operations • Users “contract” for airspace access and service

8. Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations:Management-by-Trajectory Strategic Domain Tactical Domain Separation Mgmt Domain Airspace Organization and Management Airport Operations Airspace User Operations Demand & EnvironmentalPerformance Balancing Information Management ATM Service Delivery Management Conformance Monitoring Clearance Projected Profiles Planned Profiles User Requested Profile Agreement Weather, Aggregate Flow, Airport Configuration/Infrastructure • Key Issues are functional allocation between: • Automation and humans • Aircraft operators and service provider

9. Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations:“Evaluator” • Integrates/communicates weather, security, defense, environmental, safety, international considerations, other information • Users “post”/update desired 4D trajectories in common system that continuously evaluates mutual compatibility • Predicts potential “over demand” situations, in multiple “capacity dimensions”—traffic density, environmental, security, etc. • Works across all time horizons from days/weeks/months prior to flight up to separation management (20 minutes or less) • Supports distributed decision-making environment where players have clear, agreed-upon roles and interactions

10. Equivalent Visual Operations Increasing capacity from today’s non-visual conditions • Aircraft perform "equivalent visual" operations in non-visual conditions (achieve “VFR capacity” under these conditions) • ATM provider delegates “maintain separation” responsibility to aircraft operators • Requires timely, high fidelity information on nearby aircraft, weather, etc • System-wide availability at all air portals • With appropriately capable “landside” (including security) • Greater predictability of operations at busy airports, including ground operations

11. Weather Assimilated into Decisions Common weather picture across NGATS • Fuse global weather observations and forecasts into single information system, dynamically update as needed • Tens of 1000’s of sensors (airborne & ground) feed 100’s of forecast models • Learning automation accounts for weather and its uncertainties in managing aircraft trajectories • Identify hazardous weather real-time • Assimilated into NGATS “decision loops” • Total integration via machine-to-machine • Critical decision system time scales using both probabilistic and deterministic weather info • Optimized to maximize available weather-favorable airspace • Terminal weather impacts including ground/ramp ops and adaptability due to wind shift changes

12. 2025 NGATS Vision • The number and complexity of NGATS command and control decisions at any given moment will require the total system to be largely automated • This requires weather information to be passed digitally, rather than as text or graphic products • The “system” will use smart pull technology to obtain required weather information for any given decision • Traditional aviation weather products will be reduced or outright eliminated (e.g., Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts, Area Forecasts…) As needed presentation of three-dimensional weather information, projected into the future, will allow the National Airspace System’s operational systems to make weather-savvy decisions

13. Weather in the Future • Common weather picture – A “data cube” will ensure NGATS users share consistent information • It’s not about looking at a lot of sensor data, its about providing an accurate diagnosis and forecast of phenomena that are important to aviation • Weather information fully integrated into all ground- and cockpit-based decision support systems/tools • 4DT based on current and forecast weather • Real time weather updates posted and pushed to all impacted subscribers • Probabilistic forecasts enable prognostic, risk-based decisions on allowing aircraft to tactically traverse certain weather phenomena • Enables capacity management • Opens more airspace to the system DST algorithms are owned by the operators not weather. Weather is just one input to the algorithm

14. NGATS/JPDO Aviation Weather IPT • Observations (improved suite) • Forecasts (new science, automation, probability) • Dissemination (4D Weather Information System) • Integration (critical joining of weather with ATM) • Aircraft Mitigation (harden aircraft for weather) • Training (“just-in-time”) • Policy • Systems Engineering

15. Emphasis and Priorities:4–D Weather -- Official Product of the Future 1 X X 18 Z Y 12 0 X Probability Distribution Function of Magnitude 18:30 • Convection • Turbulence • Icing • Snowfall • Ceiling • Visibility • Radiation from Space • Wind Speed • Wind Direction • Temperature • Humidity • Noise Propagation Potential • Airport Plume Concentration • Atmospheric Sensitivity to Exhaust • Volcanic Ash Concentration • Wake/Vortex Dissipation Potential

16. NWP Models Automated Intelligent Forecast Systems 4-D Global Database Custom Graphics Generators Observations Custom Alphanumeric Generators Human Forecaster Input Production of aviation weather products – the JPDO vision • This plan includes many factors • in strategic and tactical airspace • management, such as: • Aircraft separation • Hazardous weather separation • Time en route • Fuel burn • Noise impact • Environmental impact Constantly Refreshed Statistical Systems Automated Decision Support Systems

17. Aviation Weather Dissemination, 2025Foundation for Net-Enabled Weather Operations Air-Air Rides on Net Enabled Information System AIR-Ground A-G/A-A I/F Urgent Wx Aircraft Networks and Wx Sensors/Displays Net-Centric Enterprise Services and Network Shared Services Community of Interest A-G/A-A I/F Ground-Ground A/C pulled and pushed Wx Controllers Displays AOC Community of Interest Displays Displays Aircraft Wx Obs And Wx requests Evaluator and DSS Wx Processed into ATM Decisions With Drill Down Available Communities of Interest community of Interest Community of Interest Authoritative Wx Pulled and Pushed Forecasting Multi-sensor QA’ed Obs Assimilated Obs Forecast, Nowcast, Diagnosis Obs to push and Pull customers Training Requested Obs Airports Ground/Space Based Observations

18. Summary • Plan to support to broad range of possible NGATS “futures” • Actual evolution to target curb-to-curb concept likely will consider multiple alternate paths • Develop systems to support those alternatives • Transition from today’s system to future system • Provide information that support common situational awareness • Intelligent fusion of data, models, and predictors into a single authoritative data base • Common understanding of the definitions and limitations of the information elements • Enable integration of weather information into DSS • Develop reliable probabilistic information • Develop generic information products that can be customized to meet the needs of service provider and customer systems • Develop new products jointly with DSS community