Research: Interpreting Survey Results

1. Research:Interpreting Survey Results CM 2300 Fact vs. inference Data & estimates

2. You will learn To… • Tell the difference between fact, data, estimate and inference • Understand the risks/usefullness of making inferences from facts

3. Fact OR Fiction? Fact (noun) • The quality of being actual; • A piece of information presented as having objective reality. Both are valid meanings of the word ‘fact’. But, they do not mean the same thing. Being actual Presented as having actual reality

4. Fiction OR Fact? Inference (noun) • the act of passing from one proposition, statement, or judgment considered as true to another whose truth is believed to follow from that of the former; • the act of passing from statistical data to generalizations.

5. Fact AND Fiction? Estimate (verb) • to judge tentatively or approximately the value, worth, or significance of; • to determine roughly the size, extent, or nature of. Tentatively, approximately, roughly

6. Fact AND Fiction? Datum (noun); data (plural) • something given or admitted, especially as a basis for reasoning or inference.

7. Making Sense of Facts, Inferences, Data & Estimates The following slides show information about the trade in counterfeit products. Examine each statement and determinewhen each is a fact, an estimate, an inference. Identify the statements that for you most truthfully represent the topic. Finally, what inferences can you draw from the information that follows?

8. Quantitative Information • $600 Billion • The annual sales in counterfeit products worldwide • $23 Billion • in New York City • $20 Billion • The loss to American companies from counterfeit products • $1 Billion • The annual loss in tax revenues in New York City • $139 Million • The domestic value of all counterfeit goods seized by U.S. Customs in 2004

9. Quantitative Information • 550,000 • Fake watches seized by Cartier in a raid of a NYC wholesaler • 10,000 • Square meters of fake Louis Vuitton monogram canvas seized in France in 2004 – enough to make 28,000 wallets or 18,000 handbags • 7% • Of total volume of world trade is represented by counterfeit goods Source: International Anticounterfeiting Coalition as cited by Txtfo.com. Retreived May 28, 2008 from: http://64.233.183.104/search?q=cache:Lzur3Xf2FcAJ:authentxt.com/presentation.pdf+%22percentage+of+counterfeit%22+rolex&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=7&gl=ca

10. QuantitativeInformation • Raw numbers. Eg: • 1,304 adults surveyed* • 170 purchased or downloaded a counterfeit product • 89 of those knew the product was counterfeit before buying it.* Retrieved May 28, 2008 from: http://www.internetretailer.com/internet/marketing-conference/64653-bogus-brands-internet.html

11. Quantitative Information • Analyzable & Interpretable Numbers. Eg: • 13% of people who shop online purchase fake products. • 52.6% of people who purchase fake products online know that the products they purchase are fake. *Retrieved May 28, 2008 from: http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0314/counterfeit.html

12. Quantitative Information • Analyzable & Interpretable Numbers. Eg: • 400 counterfeit items seized in Ireland in 2007 worth €1.6m* • €4000 each ($2.5m or $6300 each) • 30,052 items seized in Dubai in 2007**. • If Irish figures are comparable, that represents a total value of $189,327,600 US. • Retrieved May 28, 2008 from: http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0314/counterfeit.html • * Retrieved May 28, 2008 from: http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theuae/2008/March/theuae_March457.xml&section=theuae

13. What have we learned from the data on fake products? • Make some wild inferences based on the information presented (as long as you can support each one). • What conclusions seem okay, but which we cannot be confident about? • What valid conclusions can be made from the information presented?

14. The End