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Haiti Expert Mission Process Observations

This report details the observations and statistical analysis conducted by the expert mission in Haiti. It outlines the mission’s goals, the process of validating the election's fitness for use, and the expert team's initial steps and reviews. The analysis includes findings from a systematic sampling approach, emphasizing voting recommendations and addressing errors. The report highlights personal reflections and acknowledges key contributions, providing insights into the complexities of the electoral process in Haiti.

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Haiti Expert Mission Process Observations

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  1. Haiti Expert Mission Process Observations Statistical Back-Story Fritz Scheuren

  2. Rules of Engagement • Goals of Mission • Validating Fitness for Use as a Basis for A Run-Off • Not Simply Conformance to Requirements • Voting Recommendations

  3. Main Team Process Steps • Start Up Preparations • First Meet of Expert Mission • Initial Sample and Review • Forensic Driven Search • Results In and Report Made

  4. Start-Up Preparations • My Background on Elections • Personal Knowledge of Haiti • Fits about Starts • Data Collection Straw Man • Well Chosen Experts

  5. First Expert Meeting • Form, Storm, Norm, Perform • Colin’s Leadership • Steve’ Managership • Getting to Know Each Other • Getting to Task Right Away

  6. Initial Sample Reviews • Getting Frame/List of Election Sites • Systematic Zonal Sample • Piloting Review Procedures • Replicate Team Workgroups

  7. Team Process • Teams of Two Used • Checked by Repeating Cases • Comparison of Replicates Too • Sampling Error • Nonsampling Error

  8. Forensic Directed Step • Reviewing Earlier Exclusions • Continuing Proven Reviews • Expanding to Check All SINs • High Vote Count Locations • High Participation Locations

  9. Overvote Statistics • One Million Votes • About 50,000 Exclusions 5% • 1 Manigat 4% Excluded • 2 Martelly 3% Excluded • 3 Celestin 8% Excluded

  10. Reports of Results • Some Personal Praise • Order of Top Candidates Changed • Missing Tallies Studied • Run-Off Recommendation

  11. Reactions and Confusions • Initially the Mission’s Large Representative Sample was Misunderstood • Missing Voting Locations were a Limitation looked into but unable to model

  12. Concluding Comments • Many Thanks for Your Attention • Contacts – Fritz Scheuren • Email – scheuren@aol.com • Phone – +1-202-320-3446

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