Situational Awareness

1. Situational Awareness Pre-Event Decision Support Spring 2012 Michael Lewis Warning Coordination Meteorologist Audio Dial: 1-888-597-5980 Access Code: 0317641102#

2. Agenda • Integrated Warning Team • Situational Awareness • Severe Weather Climatology • Northern Indiana / SW Lower MI / NE Ohio • What to Report

3. Integrated Warning Team Roles, Responsibilities and expectations

4. Team Players • NWS Meteorologists • Broadcast Media Partners • Emergency Managers • Spotters!

5. NWS Meteorologists • Role • Interpret computer models • Forecast severe potential • Interpret radar data • Responsibilities • Save Lives and Minimize Loss • Serve 37 Counties – 2.8 million people • Issuing watches, warnings and advisories • Keeping communications suite up to date • Internet, NOAA Weather Radio, NWSChat, Phones, etc.

6. Broadcast Media Partners • Role • Inform the public • Motivate action • Nearly continuous information relay • Responsibilities • Save lives and motivate action • Share information with NWS and other decision makers

7. Emergency Managers • Role • Coordinate the local mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery • Identify potential impacts based on a variety of hazards. • Responsibilities • Facilitate communications between the local community and otherresponse organizations. • Training and education

8. Weather Spotters • Role • Observes and reports weather events • Timely, accurate and safely • Serves as the field observer • Responsibilities • Understand severe weather potential • Understand what type of event • Personal safety MUST be the first concern

9. A Call to Partnership Building a Weather Ready Nation

10. Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather • The United States has so far this year experienced 12 separate disasters each with an economic loss of $1 billion or more - breaking the record set in 2008. • According to Munich Reinsurance, the number of natural disasters in the U.S. has tripled in the last 20 years and 2010 was a record breaker with about 250 and property losses from severe weather events have increased five-fold since 1980. • These extreme impacts are clear evidence of our increased vulnerability due to societal changes, such as population growth and increased density in high-risk areas like the coasts, more expensive and vulnerable structures, increased dependence on technology.

11. Shared Vision • NOAA National Weather Service and Partners are moving from concern to action. • Our vision is to build a Weather-Ready Nation where individuals and society are prepared for and respond proactively to weather-dependent events. • The success of this vision will be measured by the accuracy of forecasts and by how effectively it is applied in saving lives and livelihoods. • A Weather-Ready Nation is better prepared to protect, mitigate, respond to and recover through systematic preparation for weather-related disasters (droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, solar storms, floods, and more).

12. Actions from National Weather Service and our Partners • Society’s ability to prepare for natural disasters requires a societal response equal to the risk. • Government cannot do this alone. • Partners include prominent individuals, other government agencies and emergency managers, researchers, the media, insurance industry, non-profits, the private sector and more.

13. Is it going to get bad? Situational awareness

14. Pre-Event Situational Awareness Severe Weather • NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Convective Outlooks – (www.spc.noaa.gov) • Issued for Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, Days 4-8 • Days 1, 2, and 3 – Areas highlighted for general thunderstorms, a slight risk, a moderate risk or a high risk of severe weather • Days 4-8 – General area highlighted for a 30% or higher chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point

16. Day 2/3 SPC Convective Outlooks • Black hatched area: indicates a 10% or greater probability for a significant severe weather event occurring within 25 miles of any location in the area. Significant events include: • Tornado rated EF-2 or greater • Thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 kt or greater • Hail 2 inches or larger in diameter

17. Day 1 SPC Convective Outlook

18. Pre-Event Situational Awareness Severe Weather • NWS Northern Indiana (IWX) Hazardous Weather Outlook (www.weather.gov/iwx) • Issued regularly every morning, occasionally updated as needed • Highlights possible hazardous weather affecting the area on Day 1 and Days 2-7 • Spotter Information Statement

20. Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 533 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO…SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ROUTE 6 IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STORMS MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING IN THE AREA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

21. How can you maintain Situational Awareness for Severe Weather? • Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussions (www.spc.noaa.gov) • Issued in response to ongoing/impending severe weather, up to a few hours before development • Highlights area impacted by severe weather with certain detail • Can contain information about potential convective watches

23. SPC Mesoscale Discussion(MD) MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1583 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN IL AND IND...FAR WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 112216Z - 112315Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN IL AND IND...FAR WRN OH. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 22Z SHOWS A NARROW LINE OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...OVERLAYED BY A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS /MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J PER KG/. NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STORM INITIATION IS LACK OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...GIVEN GRADUAL UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS STORM DEVELOPMENT DEPICTED IN 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THE REGION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS ANY SUSTAINED STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..GARNER.. 07/11/2011

24. Pre-Event Situational Awareness Severe Weather • Storm Prediction Center Convective Watches • Issued up to 8 hours before the onset of severe weather • WFO IWX- Convective Warnings, Special Weather Statements • Severe weather is imminent or occurring • Local media outlets, weather.gov/iwx , NOAA Weather Radio

25. What types of severe weather are most common here? SEVERE WEATHER Climatology

32. You’ve seen it…now… Some tools for observing

33. Damage* and/or wind gusts *From lightning, wind, or tornadoes What to report: • Location of the damage • When it occurred (approximate time frame is OK) • Wind measurement, if available (estimate with Beaufort scale or measured with home/mobile instruments)

34. Beaufort Wind Scale

35. Hail What to report: • Hail of ANY size • Location • Size of the hail (compared to US coins) • When it began and ended (might be ongoing) [pic of piddly hail]

37. Wall clouds, funnel clouds, and/or tornadoes

38. Flooding and flash flooding • Where it is (all around the county? Corner of X and Y?) • Road closures (if you encountered any) • Depth (over the curb vs. halfway up the stop sign) • Turn Around Don’t Drown

39. Winter weather We Like to know about: • Heavy snow • Sleet/ice pellets • Freezing rain

40. But what about lightning? Lightning does not make a storm “severe” per NWS thresholds… …but lightning is a killer. SAFETY FIRST! “When Thunder Roars, GO INDOORS!” Do not report lightning no matter how vivid or intense.

41. Your report matters! • Just because a warning is issued doesn’t mean the NWS already knows what’s happening on the ground. We still want to hear from you!

43. Almost done… Final thoughts

44. Thank You! • Some Helpful links • www.weather.gov/iwx • www.spc.noaa.gov • www.noaawatch.gov • www.weather.gov/hazards/iwx • www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation • www.weather.gov/iwx/?n=online_spotter_training • Please send your reports!