艾略特波浪理论入门介绍

技术分析 艾略特波浪理论入门介绍 2011年7月 Murray Gunn CFTe Head of Technical Analysis HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 6797 murray.gunn@hsbcib.com View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc Disclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it

让你的朋友惊叹的数字游戏！ 2 Source: HSBC

1.618 = Phi 黄金比例/黄金平衡/黄金分割累加生长和衰亡 .382 .618 混沌背后的规律 3 Source: istockphoto.com, shutterstock.com

1 艾略特波浪理论分形设计 (5) • 拉尔夫•纳尔逊•艾略特 • 价格波动呈现型态规律 • 五浪所组成的波浪是股市运行的主要方向 • 三浪所组成的波浪是股市运行的修正方向 • 每个时间架构或者分形都会重复 • 反映了大规模人群行为的规律 • 比率分析/自然之数学（ phi比率、黄金比率、1.618、列昂纳多·斐波纳契） (3) (B) 长期 (A) 2 (4) 5 (1) 2 C 3 2 (C) 4 A 1 4 1 3 4 5 B 1 (2) 5 B 中期 3 3 2 A 1 5 C 1 4 (5) 5 B (B) 3 5 2 2 C 1 A 3 4 2 4 C (3) A 1 2 1 4 5 4 B 3 B 1 短期 5 3 2 (A) 3 A (1) 5 1 C 完整周期 4 (C) 5 (4) B 组合在一起 3 1 2 2 A 4 C 2 (2) 4

命名 • 艾略特在图表上做了标记，区分不同趋势或分形的层级 • 特大超级循环浪长达数个世纪 • 循环浪跨度为数年 • 基本浪跨度为数个月 • 次微浪只有几小时或几天

波浪在形式上是自相似的… • …但是在时间或者深度（振幅）上他们不一定是自相似的 (5) 更接近真实情况 5 (3) 3 1 5 3 4 B D 4 2 E 1 (4) (1) C 5 3 B 4 A 2 1 A 2 C (2)

从“强手”到“弱手”分散 心理周期狂热、欣喜、自满松一口气，抱有希望，否认，振幅窄参考: Frost & Prechter “Elliott Wave Principle”, 1978 5 泡沫，投机，振幅窄，“基本面”佳/利好消息连连大幅强劲跌势，“基本面”/消息转为消极 B 3 3 最强劲的波动，振幅扩张，“基本面”/消息好转 A 惊吓，否认，“谷底买入”心态 4 惊愕，不耐烦 1 C “基本面” / 负面消息绝望，恐惧 2 否认，误以为熊市尚未结束绝望，恐惧从“弱手”到“强手” 集中 7

规则和指引 通过实证观察，艾略特得出结论：波浪的形成是遵循各种规则和指引的。这些规则的存在让波浪理论比其他市场分析形式更为客观。这些规则必须得到尊重，而指引则能帮助我们辨别趋势。艾略特波浪理论三大规律：第2浪的回撤总是小于第1浪幅度的100%。第3浪在5浪结构中决不会是最短的。第4浪底部不会低于第1浪顶点。 5 5 1 1 3 3 3 3 1 4 1 1 1 4 4 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 错误正确错误正确错误正确 2nd waves of a motive wave can be very deep but they cannot move beyond the start of wave 1. 3rd waves are usually the most powerful. They can be shorter than 1 or 5 but they must never be the shortest of 1,3 and 5. The end of the 4th wave must never overlap the end of wave 1. Note that if wave 4 is a flat or a triangle the first corrective waves could overlap wave 1 so long as the ending wave does not. 艾略特波浪理论三大指南：当第3浪延伸时，第1浪与第5浪幅度的比率往往为1或为斐波纳契比率。第4浪底部通常与次一级的第4浪水平相当。变更：第4浪的修正浪型态往往与第2浪不同。 (3) 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 100% 161.8% 3 1 4 1 4 (1) 1 4 1 4 (4) 1 4 100% 100% 2 2 (2) 2 2 2 Zig Zag then Triangle Flat then Zig Zag 2nd waves tend to be zig zags and 4th waves tend to be triangles or flats. When wave 3 is extended, wave 5 will tend to end when it equals the size of wave 1 or a ratio such as 1.618 times the size of wave 1. A 4th wave will tend to finish in the price zone of wave 4 of the just ended wave 3.

(5) (5) (9) 5 (3) 3 推动浪 (7) 5 1 (3) 3 (5) 推动浪是周期的主要趋势，这些浪通常走势强劲，比较直观，容易识别。第3浪往往运动幅度增加，表明人们参与市场的积极性强烈。如下例子展现的是牛市推动浪，熊市的推动浪恰好相反。 (8) 4 (3) 1 (4) 2 4 (1) (6) (4) (1) (1) 2 (4) (2) (2) (2) 延伸延伸（九浪）终结楔形 Extensions occur when one of the motive waves is prolonged and subdivides into amplified waves. Frequently occurring in the wave 3 position, normally only one wave within a motive wave will be extended. Quite rarely an extension will occur where each subdivided wave is of roughly equal amplitude. This results in the entire motive wave looking like a nine wave move. Also known as a rising or falling wedge, the ending diagonal is a 5th wave that can subdivide into five overlapping waves of 3 waves each (zigzags). It is a sign of an exhausted trend. (5) (5) 5 (3) (5) (5) 3 5 3 (3) 1 (3) (3) 1 4 2 (1) (4) (1) (4) 5 5 (4) 4 3 2 (1) 3 (4) (1) 1 1 4 4 (2) (2) 2 (2) 2 (2) 扩张楔形引导楔形衰竭的第5浪引导楔形 The leading diagonal can also subdivide into five overlapping waves of the normal 5 motive 3 corrective waves. Divergence between price and oscillators are normal characteristics of diagonals. A 5th wave that subdivides into fives waves of three. The expanding nature of the price action points to increasing volatility that can signal the end of a trend. Sometimes the trend is so exhausted by the time the 5th wave comes that the wave does not even move past the wave 3 top or bottom. It is a sign of a very tired market trend. Added to Ellliott’s original work after observations by Frost & Prechter, a diagonal can also occur in the wave 1 position and subdivides into five waves of three moves. 9

(B) 修正浪 (B) C (B) C 2 2 艾略特观察到价格调整的几种形式。其中两种形式是锯齿型和平台型，分别由三个波浪构成。最后的C浪是推动浪，势头强劲，主要是因为市场参与者群体恐慌心理，集体逃出市场。这个过程清除了市场上的“弱手”，市场走势也得以持续。第三种形式是三角型态，包含五个波浪运动。 C B 2 A B A 2 A 4 4 4 1 1 1 B 4 A B B A 1 3 3 C 3 C 5 (A) 5 3 (A) 5 (A) (C) (C) 5 锯齿型 (5-3-5) (C) 平台型（一般） (3-3-5) 平台型（延伸） (3-3-5) A sharp correction consisting of two motive waves (A) and (C) separated by a corrective wave (B). A sideways correction where wave (B) retraces close to 100% of wave (A) followed by a motive wave (C) sharp move. Also known as an Irregular Flat, this is a sideways correction where wave (B) retraces more than 100% of wave (A) followed by a motive wave (C) sharp move. 三角型 (3-3-3-3-3) (B) (A) C (D) (D) (B) (D) C (B) (C) B (E) A B B A A A A B B (E) C (A) (C) C (E) (C) (E) (A) C (C) (B) (D) (A) 三角型（对称）三角型（反对称）三角型（上升）三角型（下降） Triangles usually occur in the 4th wave position of a motive wave and represent periods of equilibrium between bulls and bears. They consist of five waves A-B-C-D-E each subdividing into three waves. The reverse symmetrical or expanding triangle is relatively rare. This pattern reflects a situation where there is equilibrium in the price but the bulls are increasingly gaining the upper hand resulting in an upward break in price. This pattern reflects a situation where there is equilibrium in the price but the bears are increasingly gaining the upper hand resulting in a downward break in price. 10

B (X) B B (X) B (X) B 复杂型态的修正浪有时候修正浪会分解为一系列低分形的修正浪，看起来更加复杂混乱，让很多刚刚接触波浪理论的新手开始变得困惑不已，甚至持怀疑态度。不过，这些复杂的修正浪刚开始确实非常难以识别。这些“双重三浪”和“三重三浪”是在市场低迷时期区分横向、不定向、交易区间价格行为的手段。推动浪的浪4期间人们往往深感挫败，这个时期我们更有可能找到复杂型态的修正浪。 A C A C A C A C A C (W) (Y) (Z) (W) (Y) 双重三浪三重三浪 Double threes consist of two A-B-C corrections labelled W and Y separated by a wave labelled as X which is also a three wave correction. Triple threes consist of three A-B-C corrections labelled W, Y and Z separated by two waves labelled as X which are also three wave corrections. (Z) 例子 C (X) B C B (W) A D (Y) A C C B A B A A B E B A C C C (Y) B (X) (X) B A C A (W) 双重三浪 (Flat, Any Three, Triangle) 三重三浪 (Zig Zag, Any Three, Flat, Any Three, Flat) In this example, the first A-B-C corrective wave is an expanded flat (3-3-5). That whole correction is then labelled as (W). Wave (X) can then be any three wave correction (zig zag or flat). Finally wave (Y) in this example is a triangle (3-3-3-3-3) which then completes the double three correction. When can we be sure that a complex correction is unfolding? At the wave (W) low it is possible that the entire correction is completed in an expanded flat but when wave (X) unfolds in three waves and then declines below the B of (X) low the analyst can be very confident that a double (or triple) three is the preferred outcome. In this example, the first A-B-C corrective wave is a zig zag (5-3-5). That correction is then labelled as (W). Wave (X) can then be any three wave correction (zig zag or flat). Wave (Y) in this example is a regular flat which then completes a double three correction. There is then another three wave correction which, when the B wave high in this example is surpassed, can be labelled as another wave (X). Finally there is an expanded flat A-B-C to complete the triple three complex correction.

5 • 把浪2和浪4底部相连接，以浪3（或浪1）顶部为起点划一根平行线，将得出浪5的终点艾略特波浪趋势通道 5 3 • 把浪1和浪3的顶部连接起来，然后以浪2的底部为起点划一根与之平行的直线，将得出浪4的终点 4 3 1 4 • 把浪A与浪B的顶部相连接，然后以浪A的底部为起点划一根与之平行的直线，交点将是浪C的终点 2 1 5 B 2 A C

恒生指数中的艾略特趋势通道 Chart Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata

斐波纳契比率 2.618 2.382 2.236 2 1.786 1.764 1.618 1.50 1.382 1.236 1 0.786 0.764 0.618 0.50 0.382 0.236 • 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 • Fibonacci number / previous (e.g: 144 / 89) = 1.618 • Inverse (1 / 1.618) = 0.618 • Fibonacci number / two previous (eg: 144 / 55) = 2.618 • Inverse (1 / 2.618) = 0.382 • 1 – 0.618 = 0.382 • 0.618 ² = 0.382 • 0.618 + 0.382 = 1 • 1 / 2 = 0.5 (midway between 0.618 and 0.382) • Fibonacci number / three previous (e.g: 144 / 34) = 4.235 • Inverse (1 / 4.235) = 0.236 • 1 – 0.236 = 0.764 • √ 0.618 = 0.786 Source: istockphoto.com

斐波纳契比率 • 浪2通常回撤浪1的76.4% 或78.6% • 浪4通常回撤浪3的38.2% • 当浪3延伸时，浪5往往与浪1等长 • 当浪5延伸时，其长度往往是浪1起点至浪3终点总长的1.618倍 Charts Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata

延伸与回撤 Charts Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata

多种浪数统计方式 • 任何时候都同时存在两种或以上有效的浪数统计方式 • 分析师的任务是找到可能性最大的那种 • 波浪结束之前都无法100%确定该波浪属于何种波浪 • 但所有分析都是事后发生的 • 也能让我们得出各种不同的结论 • 分析是一种技巧 • 实战交易又是另一种技巧 Charts Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata

艾略特波浪的真实市场例子 18 Charts Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata

艾略特波浪的真实市场例子 Charts Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata

上海证券综合指数体现的艾略特波浪 Charts Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata

结论 • 艾略特波浪理论描述的是分形市场的演变 • 波浪在形式上是自相似的（但在时间或深度上却并非如此） • 艾略特趋势通道以及斐波纳契延伸（和回撤）：独特且强大 • 多种浪数统计提供了分析上的优势 • 艾略特并不是一个交易“系统”

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艾略特波浪理论 入门介绍