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China, the US and the North Korea Nuclear Problem

China, the US and the North Korea Nuclear Problem. By Lam Wai Chung Alexander. Introduction. North Korea, one of the major threat to US 北朝鮮 是 美國 的 一個主要威脅 Communist and possession of nuclear weapons 核武器 和 共產主義. Background. Founded in 1946 by Korean Worker’s Party 1946 年建立由朝鮮勞動黨

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China, the US and the North Korea Nuclear Problem

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  1. China, the US and the North Korea Nuclear Problem By Lam Wai Chung Alexander

  2. Introduction • North Korea, one of the major threat to US • 北朝鮮是美國的一個主要威脅 • Communist and possession of nuclear weapons • 核武器和共產主義

  3. Background • Founded in 1946 by Korean Worker’s Party • 1946 年建立由朝鮮勞動黨 • Communist rule, under leader Kim Il Sung • 在領導人金日成之下以共產主義管治, • Fought against US in Korean War in 1950 • 1950 年與美國在朝鮮戰爭中作戰

  4. Background • US help the south fought back • 美國幫助南部反擊 • The Chinese army joined and push back US troops to 38th parallel • 中國軍隊參戰並將美軍推回三八線 • First Sino-US confrontation involving North Korea • 第一次牽涉北韓的中美交鋒

  5. Background • Set the orientation of the three countries • 把三個國家定位 • North Korea • Ally hostile • China improving relations US

  6. The Nuclear Problem • Started the development on nuclear energy in 1960s • 在60 年代開始了在核能的發展 • DPRK has her own uranium ore • 北韓有自己的鈾礦 • USSR was their major support • 蘇聯是他們的主要支持

  7. The Nuclear Problem • DPRK gradually mastered more of the technology • 北韓逐漸掌握了更多技術 • Drew the attention of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) • 引起了國際原子能組織的注意 • Signed an agreement over inspection of nuclear facilities • 簽署了在核設施檢查的一個協議

  8. The Nuclear Problem • In 1980s, DPRK began studies on practical uses of nuclear energy • 在80 年代,北韓開始了關於核能實用用途的研究 • Accusations of producing nuclear weapons • 生產核武器的指責 • Received great international pressure • 受到的巨大國際壓力

  9. The Nuclear Problem • Signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1985 with IAEA • 1985 年跟國際原子能機構簽署核不擴散條約 • Accusations went on after the NPT • 指責在簽署條約以後繼續 • poor diplomatic manner made them an evil image • 差劣的外交手腕為他們建立一個邪惡的形像

  10. The Nuclear Problem • 1980s onwards, PRC and USSR became less supportive • 80 年代往前, 中國和蘇聯支援減退 • Turned to Iran, East Germany, Pakistan, etc. • 轉向伊朗、東德、巴基斯坦, 等。

  11. The First Crisis • Did not work cooperatively on diplomatic relations • 沒有在外交關係工作上合作 • Delayed the inspections by IAEA and South Korea on her nuclear facilities • 延遲由IAEA 和南韓檢查她的核設施

  12. The First Crisis • Unstable foreign relations with the US • 與美國的外交關係不穩定 • In 1992, US suspect DPRK had 2 secret sites • 1992年,美國懷疑北韓2個秘密核設施 • DPRK rejected the request of IAEA to inspect to the 2 sites • 北韓拒絕讓IAEA人員檢查該兩處地點

  13. The First Crisis • 12 March 1993, DPRK withdrew from NPT • 1993年3月12日,北韓退出核不擴散條約 • Countries persuaded DPRK to reconsider the decision • 多國遊說北韓重新考慮決定 • The world was afraid of nuclear attack • 世界對核攻擊充滿恐懼

  14. The First Crisis • Negotiation came up with little progress • 談判進展緩慢 • US put forward a stronger posture, threaten DPRK with sanctions, or even military actions • 美國擺出更強硬的姿態,以制裁甚至武力威脅北韓

  15. The First Crisis • In February 1994, DPRK gave in and allowed IAEA experts to enter and inspect • 在1994 年2月,北韓讓步,允許國際原子能機構專家進入和檢查 • Later, an ‘Agreed Framework’ was concluded between US and DPRK • 美國和北韓簽訂`框架協議'

  16. First Crisis • According to the framework: • 根據框架協議 • DPRK has to freeze her nuclear facilities • 北韓必須凍結她的核設施 • US has to build 2 light-water reactors in DPRK by 2003, before that, provide heavy oil to compensate the energy insufficiency • 美國必須在2003 年以前在北韓修造2 個輕水反應堆, 那以前, 提供重油補償能量不足

  17. First Crisis • The framework marked the end of the first crisis • 框架協議結束了第一次危機 • Tension remains as agreement was made on mistrust • 協議在互不信任上簽署,局勢依然緊張

  18. First Crisis • US played the leading role in solving the 1st crisis • 美國在解決第1 次危機中扮演主導角色 • China, Japan and S. Korea had relatively smaller influence • 中國、日本和南韓相對地影響力較小

  19. Inter-crisis period • Talks continued to fixed the details of the framework • 雙方繼續談話商討框架協議的細節 • Deals were difficult to make due to their mistrust • 由於他們的互不信任,很難達成協議

  20. Inter-crisis period • China’s political direction diverge from DPRK one • 中國的政治方向和北韓逐漸偏離 • Relations with US improved greatly under Clinton’s administration • 中美關係在克林頓政府之下大幅改進

  21. The Second Crisis • US has been always suspicious DPRK of producing nuclear weapons • 美國一直懷疑北韓生產核武器 • US led an energy organization to build light-water reactors on DPRK • 美國帶領的能源組織在北韓修造輕水反應堆 • Capital wasn’t provided, US$47m debt • 資金未能按時提供, US$47m 債務

  22. The Second Crisis • DPRK accused US deliberately produce energy insufficiency in DPRK • 指責美國故意在北韓制造能源危機 • To respond, US accused DPRK of not abandoning nuclear weapons • 美國回應, 指責北韓並未放棄核武器 • Tension and mistrust accumulate over 1998-2002 • 1998-2002間,緊張和不信任一直積累

  23. The Second Crisis • October 2002, US showed the evidence of DPRK development in nuclear weapons • 2002 年10月,美國顯示了北韓發展核武器的證據 • DPRK first denied, 2 days later suddenly admitted ‘research on more powerful weapons’ • 北韓先否認,但後來突然承認正在研發更具威力的武器

  24. The Second Crisis • 13 November, US stopped the supply of heavy oil to DPRK • 11月13 日,美國停止了對北韓供應重油 • 22 December, DPRK lifted the freeze on nuclear facilities • 12月22 日,北韓重新啟動核設施 • 10 January 2003, DPRK declared the withdrawal from the NPT • 2003 年1月10 日,北韓宣佈退出核不擴散條約

  25. The Second Crisis • China took the initiative to peaceful talks • 中國主動採取了和平對話 • 3 parties talk held in Beijing, April 2003 • 3方會談在北京 2003 年4月舉行 • China, DPRK and US attended • 中國、北韓和美國出席

  26. The Second Crisis • Later in August, the first round of Six-parties talk started in Beijing • 8月,第一輪六方會談在北京開始 • DPRK, US, China, Japan, S. Korea, Russia • 北韓, 美國, 中國, 日本, 南韓, 俄國

  27. Six-Parties Talk • DPRK’s stand: US should eliminate hostility towards DPRK, guarantee not to attack DPRK before they can abandon their nuclear plan • 北韓的立場: 美國應該對北韓消除敵意,在他們保證不攻擊北韓之前,不可能摒棄核計劃

  28. Six-Parties Talk • US stand: DPRK should ‘Completely and irreversibly abandon all nuclear plans’ before US can offer any concession • 美國立場:北韓如果` 完全地和不可逆地摒棄所有核計劃’, 美國可以作出讓步

  29. Six-Parties Talk • Japan stand: simultaneously solve the problem of nuclear weapon, missiles, and the abduction of Japanese spies. DPRK should ‘completely abandon all nuclear plans’. • 日本立場: 同時解決核武器、飛彈, 和日本間諜的綁架問題。北韓應該’完全地 摒棄所有核計劃’。

  30. Six-Parties Talk • China, S. Korea and Russia have similar stands: • 中國、南韓和俄國有相似的立場: • Ensure denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, clear the security worry of DPRK, and keep the region’s peace through discussion • 保證朝鮮半島無核化,消除北韓安全憂慮, 和通過討論保持地區的和平

  31. Six-Parties Talk • Little progress was made in the first three rounds of talks • 在第一至三輪會談進展緩慢 • Breakthrough came in the fourth round of talk, September 2005 • 2005 年9月,第四輪會談出現突破

  32. Six-Parties Talk • DPRK is willing to give up all nuclear weapons and plans and rejoin the NPT • 北韓願意放棄所有核武器和計劃並重返NPT • US confirmed that she has no nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula and will not attack DPRK • 美國證實她在朝鮮半島沒有核武器, 並不會攻擊北韓

  33. Six-Parties Talk • Similar agreement was made as the 1994 agreed framework • 簽署了的協議和1994框架協議很相似 • The nuclear problem is contained and to be solved by peaceful means • 核問題受到控制和通過和平手段解決

  34. Decoding • Failure in Afghanistan and Iraq • 在阿富汗和伊拉克的失敗 • Bush’s foreign policy severely questioned • 布殊的外交政策被嚴重質疑 • Treat DPRK is a milder way • 在北韓問題以更寬鬆的方式處理

  35. Decoding • China replaced US as the leading role in solving the crisis • 中國替換了美國作為在解決危機的主導 • Rise of voices for unification in S. Korea, oppose strong measures taken by US and Japan • 在南韓統一的聲音興起, 反對由美國和日本採取的強硬措施

  36. Decoding • Rising status in economic and political aspect, as well as influence in the region • 在經濟/政治的方面的地位上升, 並且增強在這個區域的影響 • China led US through the crisis • 中國帶領了美國通過危機

  37. Decoding • Details of the agreement not yet confirmed • 協議的細節未被確定 • Mistrust still exist between DPRK and US • 北韓和美國之間仍然存在不信任 • On the day after the agreement, DPRK request US build the reactors first before they abandon nuclear plans • 協議以後第二日,北韓要求美國在他們摒棄核計劃之前先提供反應堆

  38. On the backside • Countries don’t want the problem to be solved so soon • 大國不想問題那麼很快被解決 • Japan, the nuclear problem in Korea can be an excuse for her to expand army • 韓國核問題可能是日本的一個藉口擴展軍隊 • Russia want to exert more influence in East Asia • 俄國想在東亞施加更多影響力

  39. On the backside • For US and China, their major consideration is their relations • 美國和中國的主要考慮是他們的關係 • unstable situation can keep US army on the peninsula • 不穩定的情況可以保留在朝鮮半島的美軍 • US opposes ‘Sunshine policy’, list DPRK as ‘evil axis’ • 美國反對‘陽光政策’,列北韓為`邪惡軸心’國家

  40. On the backside • Existence of the nuclear problem recognize the diplomatic importance of China between US and Japan • 核問題在美國和日本之間認可中國的外交重要性 • Strategic value of China will fall if the problem is solved, US will further surround China • 如果問題被解決,中國的戰略價值將下跌, 美國將進一步圍堵中國

  41. Looking Ahead • US and China remain in a strategic partner-competitor relationship • 美國和中國持續在一個戰略夥伴-競爭者關係之中 • The nuclear problem will be a tool to counterbalance the decisions of US and China • 核問題制衡美國和中國雙方的決定

  42. The End

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