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Energy Systems Modeling at ERC The SA TIMES Model

Energy Systems Modeling at ERC The SA TIMES Model. Energy Resources/Import and Exports. Demand Sectors (commercial and agriculture omitted from diagram). Base Year Energy Balance. Import/export (elc, oil, gas). Renewable energy resource potential. Fossil fuel reserves.

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Energy Systems Modeling at ERC The SA TIMES Model

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  1. Energy Systems Modeling at ERC The SA TIMES Model

  2. Energy Resources/Import and Exports Demand Sectors(commercial and agriculture omitted from diagram) Base Year Energy Balance Import/export (elc, oil, gas) Renewable energy resource potential Fossil fuel reserves Residential sector future technologies Industrial sector future technologies Transport sector future technologies MARKAL/TIMES optimization energy model (GAMS with CPLEX solver) Residential sector base-year calibration Industrial sector base-year calibration Transport sector base-year calibration Supply Technology Future coal/gas supply technologies Future liquid fuel supply technologies Future power generation technologies Residential sector Demand projections Industrial sector Demand projections Transport sector Demand projections Existing coal/gas supply system Existing liquid fuel supply system Existing power system Economic Analysis Policy objectives/constraints Socio-Economic Variables (GDP, Population) Energy security objectives Environmental objectives, taxes Socio-economic growth objectives Results Analysis System costs, energy costs Investment Schedule/Plan Imports, exports, consumption, production, Emissions • Inputs to optimization model • Outputs from optimization model • Intermediary information flow Overview of Modeling

  3. Components of a MARKAL/TIMES model

  4. Simple Reference Energy System

  5. Energy model components • Made up of 2 simple components: • Energy Carriers (e.g. fuels, demand) • Technologies (e.g. Light bulb, power plant) all characterized in the same way: • Input and Output Carrier • Efficiency • Investment Costs per unit of capacity • Annual Activity Costs • Existing Capacity • Annual Availability • Expected Life • Emissions

  6. Useful energy demand • Calculated using spreadsheets • Based on assumptions • Useful energy calculated for base year • Projected into future • Affected by • GDP assumptions • Structure of the economy • Changes in per capita income • Assumed income distribution, electrification etc

  7. Sectors

  8. Variation of the Load (electricity) • 20 Time-slices • Year divided in 3 seasons • Each season represented by 2 typical days • Season 1 and 3 (summer), each day is broken up into 3 parts (night, day, evening) • Season 2 (winter) week day is broken up into 5 parts (night, morning, afternoon, evening, peak)

  9. Other elements • Emissions: • Emissions coefficient/energy carrier • Emissions Tax • Constraints: • Committed build plans • Resource limits • Mode shares • Fuel shares • Policy Objectives (e.g. CO2 limit)

  10. Model Outputs • Reported globally: • Total Costs • Total tax/subsidy • Total Investments • … • Reported for demands each year: • Actual energy demand met • Marginal Price (Shadow price/cost of supplying one extra unit of demand) • Reported for each energy carrier each year: • Imported/exported • Mined

  11. Model Outputs (Continued) • Reported for technologies each year: • Fixed costs • Capacity Level and Marginal • Capacity Unused • Fuel Used • Investment Costs • Investment Levels and Marginal costs • … • Reported for emissions each year: • Emission Levels • Reported for tax/subsidy each year: • Tax/Subsidy

  12. The SAGE Model • Calibrated to a 2005 SAM (Arndt et al., 2011) • 54 industries and 46 commodities • 7 factors of production (4 education-based labour groups; energy and non-energy capital; agricultural productive land) • 14 household groups based on per capita expenditures • Energy Supply Sector disaggregated • Resource constraints • Upward sloping labour supply curves for less-educated workers • Sector Specific capital and endogenous capital accumulation • Macroeconomic closures • Fixed current account with flexible real exchange rate • Savings-driven investment • Model has already been used by Treasury to look at some CO2 tax scenarios and recycling options

  13. SAGE Model (continued) • Previous Runs of SAGE model with Power sector production shares and investment fixed by IRP plan

  14. The CGE-TIMES Link TIMES Energy Model Input Output - Simple Extrapolation of sectoral and income growth, used to re-calculate useful energy demand. • - Electricity Generation Shares • Investment • [Electricity production costs] -GDP and sectoral growth -Household income growth CGE Economic Model Input Output

  15. Sectoral Linkage

  16. The CGE-TIMES link continued • The Idea is to replicate IRP/IEP process in TIMES • Fix committed build • See how the economy responds • Adjust forecast and update investment plans • Re-iterate

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