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Demand Forecast Deviations Working Group

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On January 24, 2007, the Demand Forecast Deviations Working Group presented its findings to the Stakeholder Advisory Committee. Following a request from the SAC in September 2006, the IESO formed this group to investigate demand forecasting methodologies and their deviations. The working group conducted four meetings, culminating in a finalized stakeholder engagement plan, developed recommendations, and associated cost-benefit analyses. The next steps include seeking SAC approval of recommendations and integrating tool recommendations into user requirements for a new demand forecasting tool.

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Demand Forecast Deviations Working Group

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  1. Demand Forecast Deviations Working Group Presented to: Stakeholder Advisory Committee Presented by: Pat Doran January 24, 2007

  2. Demand Forecast Deviations WG • SAC- September 5, 2006 meeting: • Asked the IESO to form a working group to review the demand forecast methodologies used in the various time frames and assess the deviations which have resulted using this forecast methodology • Asked that the group report back to the SAC with its findings and recommendations • A stakeholder engagement plan was developed and a working group was formed • Working group met 4 times and accomplished the following: • Finalized stakeholder engagement plan and terms of reference • Developed a work plan covering a list of topics for discussion and deliverables • Developed a list of recommendations and associated cost benefit analysis

  3. Summary of Recommendations

  4. Summary of Recommendations

  5. Summary of Recommendations

  6. Next Steps • Working Group will dissolve pending SAC approval of recommendations and no further action • IESO will include tool recommendations in user requirements for a new demand forecasting tool • IESO will implement other recommendations as requested

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