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Exploring Simulation Models for Predictive Forecasting

Discover the world of computer simulation models, from weather forecasting to disaster management, used for analytical solutions and predictive insights. Learn from BBVA Compass Bank risk managers and real-life simulations.

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Exploring Simulation Models for Predictive Forecasting

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  1. Models October 24, 2011

  2. Agenda • Introduction to Models • Guest speakers from BBVA Compass

  3. Definition “A computer simulation, a computer model, or a computational model is a computer program, or network of computers, that attempts to simulate an abstract model of a particular system.” - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_simulation

  4. Model • Statistical model • Used to find analytical solutions and predict, or forecast, future results • Weather • Banking • Simulation • Uses various types of inputs (human entered, random machine input) to run different scenarios • Architecture • Weather (Climate change) • Flight Simulator

  5. Example: Earthquake Simulation (Simulation Model) • World’s largest shake table test • Six-story wood frame tested by stronger earthquake forces than California has experienced in modern time

  6. Example: Bridge Wind Simulation (Simulation Model) • Washington State Department of Transportation • SR 520 Bridge Replacement and HOV Project

  7. Example: Natural Disaster Simulation (Simulation Model) • Tsunami Inundation of Seattle (NOAA simulation) • Based on a simulated 7.3 magnitude earthquake

  8. Example: Weather Forecast (Statistical Model) • National Weather Service • Weather for Tuscaloosa, AL

  9. Guest Speakers • Tom Osterbind and Austin Sensenan • Corporate Risk Managers for BBVA Compass Bank

  10. Next Time • Quiz #5 due 3:30 on Wednesday • No late submissions accepted • Assignment #3 due Wednesday night • More about App Inventor • Don’t forget to purchase or download the textbook!

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