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Verification of USDA-MARC Heat Stress Forecasts

Verification of USDA-MARC Heat Stress Forecasts. Verification of USDA-MARC Heat Stress Forecasts Fostering Agency Relationships. USDA-MARC Heat Stress Overview Contributions by the National Weather Service. USDA-MARC Heat Stress Overview. Impacts of Heat Stress.

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Verification of USDA-MARC Heat Stress Forecasts

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  1. Verification of USDA-MARC Heat Stress Forecasts

  2. Verification of USDA-MARC Heat Stress ForecastsFostering Agency Relationships • USDA-MARC Heat Stress Overview • Contributions by the National Weather Service

  3. USDA-MARC Heat Stress Overview

  4. Impacts of Heat Stress • Heat waves can have a significant financial impact on feedlot cattle producers • Cattle Risk Factors • Genetics • Health • Production Status • Previous Exposure to Heat Stress

  5. Recognizing Heat Stress Normal • No signs of stress

  6. Recognizing Heat Stress Stage 1 • Elevated breathing rate • Restless • Spend increased time standing

  7. Recognizing Heat Stress Stage 2 • Slight drooling • Animals may group together

  8. Recognizing Heat Stress Stage 3 • Excessive drooling or foaming

  9. Recognizing Heat Stress Stage 4 • Open mouth breathing

  10. Recognizing Heat Stress Stage 5 • Extremely elevated breathing rate with pushing from flanks • Open mouth breathing with tongue protruding

  11. Recognizing Heat Stress Stage 6 • Breathing is labored, and respiration rate may decrease • Head down • Not necessarily drooling • Individual animals may be isolated from herd

  12. Forecasting Heat Stress • Breathing Rate Equation • Studies have shown breathing rate to be a good indicator of cattle heat stress • Breathing rate varies as cattle attempt to maintain thermal balance • MARC researchers developed the breathing rate equation to predict the animal’s response to different weather conditions

  13. Forecasting Heat Stress • Important Weather Parameters • Temperature • Wind Speed • Humidity • Solar Radiation

  14. Forecasting Heat Stress Breathing Rate =(2.83 X Temperature) + (0.58 X Humidity) – (0.76 X Wind Speed) + (0.429 X (100 – Cloud Cover)) – 196.4

  15. http://www.ars.usda.gov

  16. Contributions by the National Weather Service

  17. Research Goals • Verify weather elements which are used in the breathing rate equation • Identify which element(s) cause the greatest discrepancy between forecast breathing rate and observed breathing rate • Provide meteorologically-based recommendations for the breathing rate equation

  18. Verification • Download observational data from NCDC • Acquire archived forecast data from USDA-MARC • Develop verification scripts • Develop a verification grid • Verify heat stress forecasts • Map generation of heat stress forecast verification

  19. Verifying Weather Elements • Observational data • ASOS and AWOS sites • Surface temperature, surface dew point, surface wind speed, cloud cover up to 12,000 FT • Sky Cloud Product • Satellite derived product • Cloud cover above 12,000 FT

  20. Verification Scripts • 14 Separate Python Scripts • Verification Grid Production • Data Quality Control • Data Ingest • Data Verification

  21. Verification Grid

  22. Verification Image Production • GFE (Graphical Forecast Editor) used for verification image production • Forecast domain enlarged to include entire heat stress forecast domain • Modified scripts used to produce daily precipitation maps • Modified GFE SerpTool for final image production

  23. Verification Image Production

  24. Verification Image Display • HTML script with JavaScript embedded • Allows for quick and easy navigation of available images • Allows the user to select from a host of weather elements • Allows the user to select individual forecast days or date ranges

  25. Verification Image Display

  26. Future Plans for the Study • Finish verifying all of April – September 2008 • Begin downloading data for 2009 • Continue raising awareness of the USDA-MARC’s work on heat stress

  27. http://www.ars.usda.gov Questions

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