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Social Media in Foreign Elections

Social Media in Foreign Elections. Shane Abinette. Three Countries. Armenia’s 2012 Parliamentary Elections Korea’s 2012 Parliamentary Elections France’s 2012 Presidential Election. Armenia’s 2012 Elections. 7-10% on Facebook 18% on other Social Media sites

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Social Media in Foreign Elections

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  1. Social Media in Foreign Elections Shane Abinette

  2. Three Countries • Armenia’s 2012 Parliamentary Elections • Korea’s 2012 Parliamentary Elections • France’s 2012 Presidential Election

  3. Armenia’s 2012 Elections • 7-10% on Facebook • 18% on other Social Media sites • 87% rely on TV for political news

  4. Armenian Voters Mobilized? Nope. • Minimal engagement by politicians with voters • Presidential election is more popular • Political News Source • 87% TV • 11% online • GDP per capita = $5,400

  5. Social Media’s Role • Iditord.org : Voter fraud election report system • Site went down while polls were open, minimal reports of fraud • Government? Poor Internet Service? • Largest social media event during election • 150 people hospitalized after balloons exploded at political rally

  6. South Korea’s 2012 Election • Polls showed Democratic United (Liberal) and Saenuri (Conservative) Parties tied • 80% of internet users favored Liberals • Top 5 twitters were Liberal Politicians. • Can Twitter decide an election? • Voter Mobilization Online?

  7. Election Results • Conservatives: -24 seats • Liberals: +38 seats • Final Score: 152 Conservatives and 127 Liberals • Media Analysts and Polls predicted a closer outcome • Twitter suggested Liberals may win

  8. Presidential Election • Decemeber 2012 • Polls are very close • Liberal Candidate ahead on Twitter • Round two!

  9. France • 75% on the web • 25 of 77 Million have Facebook Accounts • 74% Political News from TV • 40% Political News from the Internet

  10. France’s Social Media Election • Every candidate had a Twitter and Facebook (for the first time) • Hollande Twitter count: 224,000 • Sarkozy Twitter count: 157,000 • Sarkozy Lost

  11. Buzz Doesn’t Make You a Winner

  12. Social Media as a Predictor • Sarkozy’s Plate: Eurozone Debt Crisis and 2008 Recession • 11thExecutive to lose office in Europe • Destined to lose?

  13. Conclusions • Social media’s election prediction abilities are questionable • Liberals seem to be more active on the internet

  14. References • http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2009/06/17/DI2009061702232.html • http://blogs.salesforce.com/strategy/2012/05/whats-the-impact-of-social-media-on-the-french-presidential-elections.html • http://articles.cnn.com/2012-04-19/opinion/opinion_france-election-social_1_social-media-social-tv-twitter/2?_s=PM:OPINION • http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/07/16/social-media-and-armenias-2012-parliamentary-elections/ • http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/09/net-us-korea-politics-socialmedia-idUSBRE8380BI20120409 • http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2012/04/20124110199508413.html • http://blogs.wsj.com/korearealtime/2012/04/12/odds-ends-a-day-after-the-election/

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