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Edward Guay Phone: 1-860-242-7225 Fax: 1-860-242-9598 E-mail: Wntnbry@aol

Edward Guay Phone: 1-860-242-7225 Fax: 1-860-242-9598 E-mail: Wntnbry@aol.com. The Connecticut Economy The Connecticut Convention Center Hartford, CT September 9, 2005. The International Challenges. Wintonbury Risk Management 10 Birch Road Bloomfield, CT 06002-2104.

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Edward Guay Phone: 1-860-242-7225 Fax: 1-860-242-9598 E-mail: Wntnbry@aol

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  1. Edward Guay Phone: 1-860-242-7225 Fax: 1-860-242-9598 E-mail: Wntnbry@aol.com The Connecticut Economy The Connecticut Convention Center Hartford, CT September 9, 2005 The International Challenges Wintonbury Risk Management 10 Birch Road Bloomfield, CT 06002-2104

  2. Paul Volcker was asked to crush inflation, even if that put growth and employment at risk—Inflation Control Alan Greenspan was asked optimize growth relative to contained inflation, while dealing with multiple crises—Risk Management Greenspan’s successor will be asked to balance international trade and domestic demand as well— Ultimate Risk Management The Greenspan Succession 1 Wintonbury Risk Management

  3. CIA HQ and World Trade Center Attacks, 1993 Chinese Currency Devaluation, 1993-1994 Mexican Financial Crisis, 1994-1995 Southeast Asian Crisis, 1997 Korean Financial Crisis, 1997-98 Russian Default, 1998 Long Term Capital Management, 1998 Brazilian Crises, 1999-2003 Argentine Crises, 1999-2004 Y2K Fear, 1999-2000 Technology Bubble, 1999-2000 World Trade Center and Pentagon Attacks, 2001 Shocks and Fears During the 1990s 2 Wintonbury Risk Management

  4. Other countries devalued, pegged currencies, and accumulated foreign exchange reserves, mostly in dollars. The United States maintained relatively easy fiscal and monetary policies. The combined effect was unusually easy credit in the United States, strong domestic demand, and large trade imbalances How the World Responded Wintonbury Risk Management 3

  5. Asian Currencies Indexed to December 1993Yuan, Korean Won, New Taiwan Dollar 4

  6. Growth of U.S. Official Credit SourcesPercentage Change from the Year Before 5 Wintonbury Risk Management

  7. The Real Federal Funds RatePlotted with Average and Cyclical Normal 6 Wintonbury Risk Management

  8. Real Housing and Consumer Durable SpendingAs a Percentage of Real Gross Domestic Product Wintonbury Risk Management 7

  9. Real Exports and Real ImportsAs Percentages of Trend 8 Wintonbury Risk Management

  10. Real Balance of Trade in Goods and ServicesPlotted with Trend Caused by Systematic Overvaluation of DollarChain Weighted 2000 Dollars 9

  11. Saving as a Percentage of Disposable Personal IncomePlotted with 1959-2004 Average Wintonbury Risk Management 10

  12. U.S. Cost of Imported Crude OilU.S. Dollars per Barrel; Plotted with Adjusted Normal Price 11 Wintonbury Risk Management

  13. United States ExportsFifteen Largest Export Markets, $Millions 12 Wintonbury Risk Management

  14. United States ImportsFifteen Largest Import Sources, $Millions 13 Wintonbury Risk Management

  15. United States Merchandise Trade BalancesListed by Fifteen Largest Import Sources, $Millions 14 Wintonbury Risk Management

  16. The Real Treasury Yield CurvePlotted with the "Normal" Real Yield Curve 15 Wintonbury Risk Management

  17. September 20, 2005 November 1, 2005 December 13, 2005 January 31, 2006 March 28, 2006 May 10, 2006 June 28, 2006 Federal Reserve Open Market Meetings Wintonbury Risk Management 16

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