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CEE, CIS and SEE insurance markets in 2011

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the insurance markets across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and Southeastern Europe (SEE) for the fiscal year 2011. It features macroeconomic indicators, market shares, and Gross Written Premiums (GWP) statistics for 32 countries, highlighting diverging economic growth, insurance density, and trends in life and non-life insurance sectors. Key findings include GDP growth rates, insurance dynamics, and the impact of macroeconomic factors like inflation and unemployment on the industry.

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CEE, CIS and SEE insurance markets in 2011

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  1. CEE, CIS and SEE insurance markets in 2011

  2. XPRIMM Insurance Report FY2011 • 32 countries: CEE, SEE, CIS • Full length statistics in EUR and national currency on www.xprimm.com

  3. Macroeconomic view • CEE - 5.3% GDP growth in 2011 according IMF • Diverging results across the region: • Turkey and Baltics : >5% - 7% • Bulgaria, Hungary, Czech Rep. : 1.5 – 2% • Croatia – flat • Common characteristics in most countries: • Economic slowdown in Q4 • Reasonable inflation rates • Rather high unemployment rates • Weak purchasing power of the population • Low crediting activity

  4. Macroeconomic view • CIS - 4.5% GDP growth in 2011 according Eurasian Development Bank (except Georgia). • Diverging results across the region: • Turkmenistan : 9.3% • Russia, Ukraine, Moldova and Azerbaijan : 4 – 4.5% • Common characteristics in most countries: • Raising inflation rates • High unemployment rates • Weak purchasing power of the population • Turkey - 7.6% GDP growth in 2011 • Greece - 4.5% GDP fall in 2011

  5. CEE insurance market PL 12% PLN  -5.4% GWP nominal change in EUR HU 12% HUF  -13.3% GWP nominal change in EUR GWP evolution depends on the GDP growth model

  6. CEE Consolidated indicators • GWP: EUR 31.97 billion <-> -4% nominal change • Weighted growth rate (local currencies): +2.11% • Paid claims: EUR 18.6 billion (Slovakia excepted) • Insurance density: EUR 253/capita (~4% down) CEE AVERAGE EUR 253/capita

  7. CEE Market shares • Almost unchanged market shares Poland 41.06  40.47 Czech Rep.  Hungary 9.08 8.20 Slovakia 6.056.60 Slovenia 6.29 6.54 Romania 5.92 5.74

  8. CEE Market portfolio • Life insurance: 45.6% • Non-life insurance : 54.5%

  9. CEE Life insurance • 45.6% of CEE portfolio (-1pp y-o-y) • GWP: EUR 14.58 billion -> 6% y-o-y decrease • Best dynamic: Albania (25%), Macedonia (40%) • Worst dynamic: Latvia (-24%), Estonia (-13.8%) and Hungary (-11%) • Insurance lines: • Traditional life insurance – negative trend • Unit-Linked – positive evolution in most countries (+1.6pp weight in CEE portfolio; +4.3pp weight in life insurance GWP) • Perspectives: almost no chances for reinstating or adopting fiscal incentives

  10. CEE Life insurance Life insurance dynamic 2011 +2% +102% Paid claims growth rate +92% UL insurance weight in life segment and dynamic 2011 +56%

  11. CEE Property insurance • 12% of CEE portfolio (< +1pp y-o-y) • GWP: EUR 3.83 billion -> 2.6% y-o-y increase • Paid claims: EUR 1.6 billion -> -28% y-o-y decrease • Latvia and Lithuania - the only CEE countries recording much higher property claims than in 2010 Weight of “fire and allied perils in line” in property segment

  12. CEE Motor insurance • 29% of CEE portfolio (< -1pp y-o-y) • GWP: EUR 9.2 billion -> 5.77% y-o-y decrease • Paid claims: EUR 5.5 billion -> ~8% y-o-y decrease • Trends: • Price war – “to the limit of economic acceptability” • Increasing bodily claims • Insurance fraud • high acquisitions costs

  13. CEE Motor insurance Motor Hull: Lithuania , Latvia, Albania and Bosnia – positive dynamic MTPL: 10 out of 17 countries, positive dynamic; Hungary, Romania, Albania and Czech Rep. – double digit negative dynamic

  14. CIS Consolidated indicators • GWP: EUR 33.67 billion -> 17.5% nominal change • Paid claims: ~EUR 22.5 billion -> 11.8% increase • Insurance density: EUR 122/capita (~17% up) CIS AVERAGE EUR 122/capita

  15. CIS Market shares • Russia: > 90% share;EUR 30.4 billion GWP • Ukraine: 4.03% share; EUR 1.4 billion GWP • Kazakhstan: 3.07% share; EUR 1.03 billion GWP

  16. CIS Specificities • Extreme diversity  hardly comparable markets • Complexity • Portfolio • Legislation • Ease of access for foreign undertakers • Affordability • Etc.

  17. SEE: Turkey, Greece, Cyprus • Different development stages of the insurance market • Very different dimensions • Currently, very different economic trends • Turkey: • GWP: EUR 6.9 billion – 1.9% y-o-y increase • Life insurance – cvasi underdeveloped (15.6% weight in portfolio) • Motor insurance – almost 40% weight in portfolio • Property insurance – 22% weight in portfolio • 3.72 million mandatory policies sold by TCIP in 2011 • Less than 23% coverage of 16 million housing units • a hot spot on the acquisitions map

  18. A changing landscape • PZU - preparing geographical expansion – first step, the Baltics • TRIGLAV and SAVA Re - interested to enter new markets or strengthen their presence in the current ones • Vienna Insurance Group - new acquisitions in Poland and Bosnia & Herzegovina and also intends further acquisitions in Hungary and Moldova, • different insurers and banks are targeting the Russian market • big Russian players (ROSGOSSTRAKH) - expanding in the neighboring countries • important legislative adjustments in the young markets • Solvency II regime – important challenge for the EU members

  19. We wish you successful business in FIAR ! daniela.ghetu@mxp.ro vlad.boldijar@mxp.ro

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