Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification

Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification By Greg Machos Presented For: Dr. Stephan Nelson and Members of Atmospheric Division of the National Science Foundation

Welcome…. • To the entire staff of the Atmospheric Division of the National Science Foundation. • A special welcome to the following people • Dr. Stephan Nelson, Director for NSF’s Atmospheric Division. • Richard Behnke, Head of NSF’s Upper Atmospheric Division. • Robert Robinson, Program Manager, Upper Atmospheric Facilities • Members of the U.S. Weather Research Program. • Members of the National Space Weather Research Program. Hurricane Modification

Agenda • Introduction • Problems Hurricanes Present To Today’s World • Hurricane Mitch in Central America • Early Attempts to Control Hurricanes • Research Being Done Today • Federal Government Projects • Government Research Into Hurricane Intensity • Shearing A Hurricane Apart • Private Industry Projects • Dyn-O-Mat’s Hurricane Powder, Dyn-O-Gel • Plan For Research Experiment • Estimated Cost For Research Experiment • Questions Hurricane Modification

Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification Introduction

Introduction • Hurricane forecasters and researchers indicate that the Atlantic Basin is now entering a period of increased hurricane activity (See Figure 1). • More intense hurricanes are expected to make landfall more frequently along the United States coastline over the next forty years. • While Hurricane Forecasting has improved (See Figure 2), coastal populations continue to rise as shown in Figure 3. • Research into other solutions such as hurricane modification is needed so that there are alternatives in case forecasting doesn’t improve. Hurricane Modification

Introduction Figure 1 Tropical Activity in the Atlantic (1991-2001) Hurricane Modification

Introduction Figure 2 Improvement In Forecasting Errors. Source: NOAA Hurricane Modification

Introduction Figure 3 Increase In Coastal Populations. Source: U.S. Census Hurricane Modification

Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification Problems Hurricanes Present To Today’s World

Problems HurricanesPresent To Today’s World • Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones are known throughout the world to be very vast and vicious storms that can affect many people. • Hurricanes present a variety of problems such as wind, rain, storm surge, high waves, and even tornadoes. • The problem that faces today’s world with hurricanes is not only accurately forecasting where the storm will go, but also how intense it will get. • Another problem is while forecasting hurricanes has gradually improved, coastal populations are growing at a very rapid rate. • Insurance costs for coastal property has also increased steadily over the past several decades. • Example--Category Four Hurricane Striking Asbury Park--$52 billion dollars. Hurricane Modification

Devastation of Hurricane Mitch in Central America • Hurricane Mitch, shown in Figure 4, was a Category Five Hurricane that devastated Honduras and Nicaragua in October, 1998. • Sustained winds with Mitch approached 190 mph. • The brunt of the damage, as seen in Figure 5, was from the three to six feet of rain that fell within a 48 hour period as the storm stalled off the coast. • The deluge of rain was due to the phenomenon of orographic lifting, which is the lifting of moist air over mountainous terrain as in Figure 6. • In the case of Mitch, the intense amount of moist air was lifted over rugged terrain in both Honduras and Nicaragua. • As the very moist air was lifted, it was cooled and evaporated, which resulted in the heavy rains. Hurricane Modification

Devastation of Hurricane Mitch in Central America Figure 4 Hurricane Mitch Belize Honduras Nicaragua Hurricane Mitch Off Honduran Coast in October, 1998. Source: NOAA Hurricane Modification

Devastation of Hurricane Mitch in Central America Figure 5 Where road buckles from heavy rains Top half of the road Bottom half of the road Some of the Devastation from Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Source: Honduras National Web Site Hurricane Modification

Devastation of Hurricane Mitch in Central America Figure 6 The Process of Orographic Lifting. Source: USA Today Hurricane Modification

Other Recent Hurricane Disasters • Besides Hurricane Mitch in 1998, there have been many other disasters from hurricanes both nationally and internationally. • September, 1999--Hurricane Floyd left 57 people dead and caused approximately 6 billion dollars in damage as a result of 12 to 20 inches of rain from North Carolina to New England. • December, 1999--Heavy rains in Northeastern Venezuela caused rivers to overflow their banks and surge into local villages leaving 20,000 dead. • February, 2000--Heavy rains from tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean let thousands dead in Mozambique in Southeastern Africa (See Figure 7). • June, 2001--Tropical Storm Allison becomes the costliest tropical storm on record as it caused about 4 billion dollars in damage in Houston, Texas. Hurricane Modification

Other Recent Hurricane Disasters Figure 7 Estimated Number of Deaths In Recent Catastrophes Hurricane Modification

Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification Early Attempts to Control Hurricanes

Past Attempts ToControl Hurricanes • The period of the 1940s and 1950s were a very hectic and furious one for hurricanes, particularly in 1954 and 1955. • Over the two year period of 1954-55, there were several Category Four Hurricanes to hit the East Coast of the United States: Connie and Hazel in October, 1954 and Diane in August, 1955. • Of the three storms Diane was the most devastating as it left 184 dead, and caused 5 billion dollars in damage. • In today’s dollars, Diane would have caused about 80 billion dollars in damage. • During this period, researchers began to study ways to somehow weaken hurricanes through modification. • These attempts consisted of Projects such as Project Cirrus in 1947 and Project Stormfury in 1962. Hurricane Modification

Past Attempts ToControl Hurricanes • Project Stormfury was the more successful of the two projects since it benefited from improved technology and cloud seeding methods. • Project’s first test case was with Hurricane Esther in 1961before it was formally called Stormfury. • Several waves of Silver Iodide crystals were released into Esther, and reduced the storm’s winds by ten percent. • However, over the next eight years, researchers working on the Project were only able to fly into two storms. • The two test cases were Hurricane Beulah in 1963 and Hurricane Debby in 1969. • The most successful of the two was the case of Hurricane Debby, where the storm’s winds were reduced by 31 percent as shown in Figure 8. • Project Stormfury ultimately failed and was halted in 1980. Hurricane Modification

Project Stormfury Figure 8 Wind Reduction in Hurricane Debby After Seeding on August 19-20, 1969 Hurricane Modification

Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification Research Being Done Today

Research CurrentlyBeing Done • There are several different approaches being taken by both the federal government and private industry in hurricane research. • In the summer of 2001, several government agencies including NOAA and NASA have begun researching why hurricanes intensify. • According to a recent journal by the American Meteorlogical Society, work is also being conducted on how wind shear along the coast affects a hurricane during landfall. • Private industry is also doing work in this area. A company called Dyn-O-Mat in South Florida has developed a powder that will weaken a hurricane by absorbing its moisture. Hurricane Modification

Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification Federal Government Projects

Federal Government Projects • During the 2001 Hurricane Season, researchers at NOAA, NASA, and other government agencies began researching hurricane intensity (Figure 9). • Forecasters are trying to understand why hurricanes can weaken or strengthen suddenly. • Another problem in hurricane forecasting is being able to accurately predict how strong a hurricane will be. • That is because there are many variables that impact on a hurricane’s intensity. • Simultaneously, the National Hurricane Center is testing a five day hurricane forecast for the first time. • Other researchers are studying wind shear’s effects on landfalling hurricanes. Hurricane Modification

Federal Government Projects Figure 9 NOAA Gulfstream IV Taking Part in Hurricane Intensity Research Hurricane Modification

Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification Private Industry Projects

Private Industry Projects • There have been a number of ideas set forth by the private sector on hurricane modification over the years. • Many of these ideas have been quite advantageous at best. • However, a company called Dyn-O-Mat in South Florida has put forth a serious effort to develop something useful. • Their product, a powdery substance originally called Dyn-O-Gel, absorbs large amounts of moisture. • The people at Dyn-O-Mat believe that this substance can be effective in weakening hurricanes. • First test case was conducted on a storm cloud in July, 2001 and was successful. • Now, company wants to get government funding to test Dyn-O-Storm on a depression. Hurricane Modification

Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification Plan For Research Experiment

Plan For Research Experiment • Need to develop a process that will attack the hurricane’s vertical cloud structure. • A Research Experiment would be conducted to find out what happens in the upper levels of the atmosphere. • This experiment would be conducted at Florida State University since it is well known for hurricane research, and its close proximity to hurricane hunter aircraft and the NHC. • Preliminary research would be done to simulate the upper air environment within and around a hurricane. • First test would be conducted in a lab where an artificial storm would be created and sent into a wind tunnel. • Results would be used in the real world test on a tropical wave. Hurricane Modification

Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification Estimated Cost For Research Experiment

Project Costs • Much of the costs will handled by Florida State University and the National Science Foundation’s Geoscience Division • Budget Is based on estimates from Dyn-O-Mat project. Hurricane Modification

Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification Questions

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Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification

Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification

Presentation Transcript

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