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Business (and Job) Opportunities in the Environmental Goods and Services Sector

Business (and Job) Opportunities in the Environmental Goods and Services Sector. ICTU Round Table 24 th June 2009 Dr. Peter Brennan, Managing Director. Opening Remarks. Regulatory framework largely agreed; good news as investors respond to clear policy signals

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Business (and Job) Opportunities in the Environmental Goods and Services Sector

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  1. Business (and Job) Opportunities in the Environmental Goods and Services Sector ICTU Round Table 24th June 2009 Dr. Peter Brennan, Managing Director www.epsconsult.ie

  2. Opening Remarks • Regulatory framework largely agreed; good news as investors respond to clear policy signals • Peak oil, sustainable development and global warming are the key drivers • Ireland is playing catch-up • Areas of Ireland’s competitive advantage known but awaiting full commercial exploitation • Very significant investments in EGS at global level • Who is in charge? 21 agencies/Departments in this space • Critical that all perceived barriers to investment be removed • Significant jobs potential if quick, well-resourced and ambitious projects are supported by Exchequer with private investment • Rapid expansion of the EGS sector should be the Government’s over-arching priority; Green Jobs are a fact not a myth www.epsconsult.ie

  3. Defining the Sector • The EGS sector encompasses a very wide range of activities and definitions of the sector can, and do, differ. • The US Department of Commerce defines it as those environmental technologies that "advance sustainable development by reducing risk, enhancing cost-effectiveness, improving process efficiency, and creating products and processes that are environmentally beneficial or benign”. • The European Commission has adopted the OECD/Eurostat definition which states that: “The environmental goods and services industry consists of activities which produce goods and services to measure, prevent, limit, minimise or correct environmental damage to water, air and soil, as well as problems related to waste, noise and eco systems. This includes cleaner technologies, products and services that reduce environmental risk and minimise pollution and resource use.” www.epsconsult.ie

  4. The Irish EGS Sector • Air Pollution Control • Cleaner Technologies and Processes • Environmental Consultancy • Environmental Monitoring • Energy Efficiency • Energy Management and Auditing • Marine Pollution Control • Noise and Vibration Control • Remediation and Reclamation of Land • Renewable Energy • Waste Management and Recycling • Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment www.epsconsult.ie

  5. The Green Economy • Global market estimated at €3 trillion • Non-energy element valued at $650 billion i.e. four times size of global software industry • UK market forecast to be worth £152 billion by 2020 • US to invest $140 billion as part of economic stimulus package • EU has approved €105 billion in co-financing for green economy projects; with €48 billion ear-marked for climate change projects • High Level Action Group on the Green Economy set up (May 2009) • Key growth sectors in Ireland were identified in August 2008 and include: • Water and waste water treatment • Renewable energy • Energy efficiency www.epsconsult.ie

  6. Venture Capital Activity • The year 2008 - the coming of age of the “Greentech” or “Cleantech” sector • Global VC investments was €6.3 billion; up from €4.7 billion in 2007 • The UK was the main source of cleantech investment in Europe, with 40% of all European venture capital backed cleantech companies based in the UK • It is estimated that almost half of the UK cleantech deals completed in 2006 received public sector support • With the exception of the water sector, the vast majority of the investment is in renewable energy (solar, wind and biofuels) • In the US, investment in solar energy has overtaken investment in biofuels • To date, with notable exceptions (including ESB’s Novus Modus, BoI, AIB, KBC, Dolmen Green Effects Fund, Green Investments), little investment in EGS sector by VC community in Ireland • 75% of VC investments are under £2m (UK, 2009) IS IRELAND GETTING ITS SHARE OF THIS INVESTMENT AND IF NOT WHY NOT? www.epsconsult.ie

  7. Drivers in Renewable Energy/Energy Efficiency Climate change Energy Security Oil depletion Aging power infrastructure(developed world) Energy as development bottleneck (rapidly-industrialising countries) Energy poverty(slowly developing countries) Deregulation: innovation, funds, entrepreneurship Breakthroughs in materials science Low-cost communication technologies LEADING TO:Fundamental re-engineering of the world’s energy industry around low carbon solutions and architecture www.epsconsult.ie

  8. Drivers – Environmental Consultants’Survey www.epsconsult.ie

  9. Where Will The Jobs Come From? Big Ideas! • Electric Vehicles • Retrofitting • Energy efficiency • Smart transport • Wind • Other Renewables • Forestry • Water • Green Tourism www.epsconsult.ie

  10. Electric Vehicles • Potentially the single biggest carbon project for the island of Ireland • Simon Coveney’s report makes the case • Key Messages: • Current level of ambition far too low • By 2030 all cars should be EVs (350,000 by 2020) • Technology developing fast • Ireland the ideal laboratory • 8m/tonnes+ reduction in carbon per annum • Jobs potential arises in relation to: • R&D for roll-out at EU level • Manufacturing of EVs (EVs cost a fraction of combustion vehicles) • Battery/re-charging infrastructure (including domestic) • Grid connections WHAT IS THE JOB POTENTIAL OF THIS INITIATIVE? www.epsconsult.ie

  11. Retrofitting • Some 1m of 1.5m Irish homes pre-date 1990 (275,000 houses vacant at time of 2006 census) • Households spend some €2.2 billion on energy (average of €1,600 (2005)) and emit 11.9Mt of carbon pa; around 8 tonnes per house – twice that of an average cow! • 35% of heat loss through walls and 25% through roof; not technology intensive • SEI’s HESS has budget (2009) of just €49m i.e. a grant of €3,500 for 14,000 homes. Is this enough? • If average cost of typical household retrofit was €7,500 then an investment of €13.5 billion needed • In addition, public buildings and commercial offices also need to improve their energy efficiency in line with the NEEAP • Retrofitting is labour intensive, is capable of using Irish materials, will return 40% of spend to the Exchequer: so why then is level of activity so low? COULD RETROFITTING 2M HOMES/BUILDINGS OVER FIVE YEARS GENERATE 20,000 JOBS? www.epsconsult.ie

  12. Energy Efficiency • Most cost efficient way to reduce dependence on fossil fuels (and consequently to reduce GHG emissions) • NEEAP (2009-2020) sets out Government’s plans but detailed implementation budget not announced • Could 2 million smart meters be installed at same time as water meters? (only 2,223 smart meters installed to date (March 2009)) • Expanding scope of ACA Scheme would leverage more investment • Potential jobs content of NEEAP (assuming full implementation) should be assessed • Also look to export potential: McKinseys has estimated (2009) that global energy efficiency investment opportunities could be worth €131 billion AS MOST ENERGY EFFICIENT EQUIPMENT IS IMPORTED IS THERE SCOPE FOR MORE INDIGENOUS MANUFACTURE? www.epsconsult.ie

  13. Smart(er) Transport • smartertravel>>> sets ambition but specific measures not costed (within overall budget envelope of €4.5bn over 11 years) • What is CIE’s carbon footprint and what is being done to invest in public transport to reduce GHG emissions? • Electrify the Belfast to Cork line and all Dublin and Cork commuter lines using surplus wind energy • Replace all petrol/diesel vehicles with EVs • Reform legislation to incentive private investors; more buses – more jobs • Promote e-working – quality of life issues a significant issue for commuters • Start planning now for Transport 22 and factor in potential carbon/energy savings into capital appraisal guidelines www.epsconsult.ie

  14. Wind • 1,077 Mw connected to the national grid (June 2009) i.e. supply for 700,000 homes; wind accounted for some 40% of all generation in recent months • 2020 target requires another 6,480 Mw • Micro-generation (4,500 units) will also contribute • €16bn + of potential investments in the pipeline awaiting CER approval • Deloitte’s estimate (June 2009) jobs could rise from 1,500 to over 10,000 by 2020. • Turbines account for 75% of total cost • Spirit of Ireland’s wind storage project a major innovation • BUT>>>> • Offshore only viable at $200/barrel; hence need for REFIT • Turbine manufacturing opportunity not identified as a priority (Galway’s C&F Group the pathfinder) • Skills shortages a real problem • Offshore planning legislation (Foreshore Acts) should be replaced by more modern legislation www.epsconsult.ie

  15. Other Renewables • Biomass: Bioenergy Action Plan (2007); BioSpark’s €40m investment in Claremorris; GEGA a major player • Biofuels: must be sustainable; in past year algal biofuel projects got $1 billion in VC investments; bio-refinery and bio-energy competence centres set up • Ocean: AEA Technologies forecast of global market is €200 billion; Bacon/ESRI study (2005) estimate 1,900 Irish jobs could be created by 2020; SEI a lead player • Tidal: Ireland’s OpenHydro leading the way • Solar: Genersys Ireland believes solar could cater for 30% of household’s heating needs; but 10-year payback • Geothermal: GAI examining regulatory framework; also 10-year + payback HOW MANY IRISH COMPANIES WILL BECOME WORLD LEADERS? www.epsconsult.ie

  16. Forestry • Some 40% of total GHG emissions come from land use (12.2 million cattle primarily) • Forests act as a carbon sink hence NCCS target of 5Mt of offsets by 2020 (from 2Mt currently) • Not achievable unless massive increase in annual level of planting; has fallen to just 6,000 hectares – 20,000 hectares is (1996) target • Has Coilte a conflict of interest? • Has anyone realised that carbon sequestered in forests has a value? (5Mt @ €35/tonne equals €175m per annum)? • Remove the barriers preventing investment AS FORESTRY CAN CREATE RURAL JOBS WHO IS DRIVING THE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES? www.epsconsult.ie

  17. Water • Water is a finite commodity; global warming will put a price on this scarce resource • World Economic Forum Water Project highlights scale of problem • EU WFD the driver • Need one National Authority not 32 • Significant additional jobs will be created only when domestic water is metered • NDP (to 2013) spend of €4.7 billion scattered among local authorities; no economies of scale and unit cost of procurement too high as a result • Very limited R&D activity • Investment Programme for Greater Dublin Region (to 2035) the largest job creation project www.epsconsult.ie

  18. Green Tourism • Consumers are now far more aware of the impact of flying and travelling in terms of carbon emissions and are prepared to pay more • Some companies turning this into a business opportunity • Bord Failte published Eco-Tourism Handbook (March 2009) • Airlines should introduce carbon offset products to attract tourists to Ireland • NCC could offer offsets to attract convention visitors • UK’s ICARUS Project helps companies implement a Carbon Reduction Programme • US car rental companies are offering carbon offsetting • Inchydoney Island Hotel and Spa has largest (80 sq metres) array of solar panels in Ireland • Carbon offsets could be invested in Irish projects such as forests COULD IRELAND BECOME A TRULY ‘GREEN’ TOURISM DESTINATION? www.epsconsult.ie

  19. One Company’s Contribution The ESB announced the creation of 3,700 ‘green economy jobs’ as follows: • Smart networking 750 • Smart metering 750 • EVs 600 • Wind energy 300 • Property construction 550 • New technologies 350 • Home insulation 250 • Other 150 www.epsconsult.ie

  20. R&D 2020 Vision: Ireland will be at the forefront of energy research supporting the development of energy efficiency and renewable technologies (NEEAP) • About €35 trillion will be needed to develop and deploy new clean technologies between now and 2050 (IEA) • Not at all clear how much being spent annually on EGS R&D in Ireland • SEI, including Ocean Energy Development; €7m (2009) • Charles Parsons Energy Research Awards; €20m over seven years • EI’s R&D Fund and Competence Centres • Irish Energy Research Council has identified priority areas (May 2008) • SFI’s remit now includes sustainable energy and energy-efficient technologies with a €90m budget (six years to 2013) • 7FP has strong EGS focus IS THIS LEVEL OF EGS R&D ENOUGH TO ACHIEVE 2020 VISION? www.epsconsult.ie

  21. Where Will We Get The Money? • Carbon tax could easily raise €1bn a year • ETS auctioning revenue available from 2013 and could be worth €630 per annum by 2020 (assuming 18Mt of allowances sold at €35/tonne) • Hypothecate monies into a Green Fund(s)? • Go one step further: set up Anglo Irish as a bank with a dedicated mandate to provide project finance and working capital for Green Economy jobs, and to trade carbon offsets to support Ireland’s aim to become a Green Economy • Many claims on this windfall so how best to use this green revenue? • Publication of MACC will inform decision-taking • What are your views on this split? • 25% for fuel poverty • 30% for retrofitting • 15% for REFIT • 15% for NEEAP • 15% for other green economy incentives www.epsconsult.ie

  22. What Works In Europe • The WRAP Capital Grant Scheme (UK) • The Carbon Trust Enhanced Capital Allowance Scheme (UK) • Fideme Investment Fund (F) • Programme for Cleaner Technology (DK) • Green Financing Measure (N) • Energy Investment Tax Relief Scheme (N) • SenterNovem Carbon Reduction Plan (N) • kfW Bank Programme for investment in renewable energy (D) (Source: EPS Consulting, August 2008) WHAT TYPES OF INCENTIVE SCHEMES COULD WORK IN IRELAND? www.epsconsult.ie

  23. What Others Are Doing • US to invest $6.6 billion in green economy R&D • Siemens have already manufactured 6,400 wind turbines • Denmark’s wind turbine industry now consists of 200 companies and has a 35% share of global markets • BP to invest €500m in Energy BioScience Institute (UC Berkeley) • Austria has a Master Plan for Environmental Technologies and funds sector and sub-sector EGS networks • UK’s Commission on Environmental Markets and Economic Performance has already set national strategy (November 2007); Carbon Reduction Commitment (which will save business £1 billion by 2020) and Low Carbon Industrial Strategy launched IN CONTRAST, IRELAND HAS JUST SET UP A HIGH LEVEL ACTION GROUP ON THE GREEN ECONOMY; WE ARE WAY BEHIND OUR COMPETITORS www.epsconsult.ie

  24. Sources • EPS Consulting report on EGS sector: www.epsconsult.ie/news/greeneconomy • NEEAP: http://www.dcenr.gov.ie/NR/rdonlyres/FC3D76AF-7FF1-483F-81CD-52DCB0C73097/0/NEEAP_full_launch_report.pdf • Smarter Travel: http://www.transport.ie/upload/general/11284-0.pdf • Simon Coveney’s EV report: http://www.oireachtas.ie/documents/committees30thdail/j-climate_change/reports_2008/20090428.pdf www.epsconsult.ie

  25. Think About It Business must become green to grow and to do this it is necessary to include climate change policies into corporate DNA (CBI, November 2007) Whatever uncertainties exist regarding future oil production and project demand growth, the ultimate effect will be that the price will at first escalate and then soar (International Energy Agency, 2008) The development of alternative energy should create more than 20 million jobs globally, with 3.5 million green jobs possible in Europe and the US in the area of energy efficiency alone (ILO, September 2008) I realise that there are those out there who say that these plans are too ambitious. To them I say that the challenges we face are too large to ignore (Barack Obama, March 2009) www.epsconsult.ie

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