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Climate Information for Resource Management in the Northern Rockies

This comprehensive project aims to provide relevant climate data to aid resource management in the Northern Rockies, ensuring high scientific credibility and regionally specific insights. Through collaboration with the U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group, the study analyzes 20th-century temperature and precipitation trends and evaluates 21st-century projections from 20 global climate models (GCMs). It emphasizes understanding the range of uncertainty and levels of confidence in climate scenarios critical for effective decision-making in resource management.

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Climate Information for Resource Management in the Northern Rockies

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  1. Climate Information Needed to Inform Resource Management Decision-making • High scientific credibility • Regionally specific • Define the range of uncertainty/ level of confidence • Climate variables relevant to resource management

  2. Climate Scenarios for the Northern Rockies • A Joint Venture of: • U.S. Forest Service Northern Region • U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Region 6 • Climate Impacts Group of University of Washington (NOAA funded) • Replicated by USFS Region 6/PNW Station

  3. Four Main Deliverables • Statistical Summaries of Observed (20th Century) Trends in Temperature and Precip • Northern Rockies Specific Evaluation of 21st Century Projections from 20 GCMS • Statistical downscaling of 3 - 4 selected GCMs/emissions scenarios • Hydrologic Impacts

  4. 20 Climate Models

  5. Multiple Emissions Scenarios

  6. Regional Evaluation of 20 GCMS • Skill at simulating observed 20th Century trends • Each model run with 2 Emissions Scenarios B1 and A1B • Weighted ensemble average • Identification of • “Best-case” scenario • “Worst-case” scenario • “Medium” or Average scenario

  7. Range of Uncertainty from Different Models

  8. Multi-Model Range: Precipitation

  9. Statistical Downscaling of 3-4 GCMs • GCMs have coarse spatial resolution • Relatively simple delta method of statistical d0wnscaling

  10. Hydrologic Response Model • Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model • Snow water equivalent • Annual Runoff • Seasonal stream flow • Soil Moisture • Potential evapotranspiration

  11. Climate Projections are not Weather Forecasts • Climate projections estimate potential changes in long-term (generally 2-3 decade) averages • Users and resource managers need to understand limitations, key sources of uncertainty, and appropriate uses of climate projections. • Climate will still vary from year to year

  12. Changes in Averages versus in Extremes

  13. Benefits/Uses Regionally Specific Downscaled Climate Projections • Understand magnitude and direction of projected “local” changes • Improve understanding of uncertainty and confidence in climate projections • Reference dataset for evaluating potential impacts • Context for planning to sustain natural resources with high public values

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