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Forecasting the transport of pollution using a NWP model

This study aims to analyze the meteorological processes responsible for tracer transport during the ETEX-2 campaign and evaluate the performance of the UK Met Office's NWP model in predicting tracer concentrations. We provide an overview of the Unified Model, examining both horizontal and vertical tracer transport processes. Key findings indicate that tracer is effectively transported by warm conveyor belts and convection. The results highlight the importance of high-resolution simulations and accurate model dynamics for predicting pollution dispersion accurately.

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Forecasting the transport of pollution using a NWP model

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  1. Forecasting the transport of pollution using a NWP model ETEX Surface Measurement Sites

  2. Aims • To determine the meteorological processes responsible for transporting tracer during ETEX 2 • To assess the performance of the UK Met Office’s NWP model in predicting tracer concentrations during ETEX 2

  3. Talk Outline • Overview of NWP model • Analysis of meteorological processes • Tracer transport in the UM • Horizontal • Vertical • Conclusions

  4. UK Met Office Unified Model • Eulerian, non-hydrostatic NWP model • Includes parameterisations (boundary layer mixing, microphysics, convection) • Limited area model 12 km resolution • Tracer released into lowest model grid box • Tracers are passive LAM domain

  5. Synoptic Analysis Frontal analysis at 00 UTC on 13th, 14th, 15th and 16/11/94 Modis visible 08UTC 14/11/94

  6. Precipitation Fields Large-scale rain amount 15/10/94 03 UTC Convective rain amount 15/10/94 03 UTC

  7. Isentropic Surface Analysis

  8. Horizontal Tracer Transport 15/11/94 03 UTC 15/11/94 15 UTC 16/11/94 03 UTC

  9. Vertical Tracer Transport 15/11/94 03 UTC 15/11/94 15 UTC 16/11/94 03 UTC 15/11/94 15 UTC 16/11/94 03 UTC 288K 288K 287K 288K 287K 286K 287K 286K 285K 286K 285K 285K 15/11/94 03 UTC 15/11/94 15 UTC 15/11/94 15 UTC UM UM - no convection

  10. Conclusions • A warm conveyor belt transported tracer up to height of 4km and tracer was transported further to 8km by convection • High resolution simulations needed to predict the change in wind direction and hence the observed tracer distribution • The representation of sub-grid scale processes in NWP models can affect the distribution of tracer • Accuracy of forecast is also sensitive to choice of model dynamics and accuracy of the meteorological forecast

  11. Wind Direction at Release Site 360 315 270 225 180 50km Obs Wind direction (degrees) 12km cold front • 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 • 14/11/94 Time (UTC) 15/11/94

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