South-Eastern European Countries and the post-2012 regime

1. South-Eastern European Countries and the post-2012 regime From Capacity Building point of view Maria Khovanskaya 5 March 2009

2. Outline of the presentation • General remarks on scope, geographical coverage, of paper etc • Status of the countries: • Under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol • Under enlargement process • Major capacity building needs under post- Kyoto regime: • Enlargement: SEE countries joining the group with firm approach for the problem of Climate Change • Commitments and targets, Bali Action Plan, • Reporting: different sets of reporting obligations • Adaptation to the effects of Climate Change • Current evidence • South Eastern Europe Framework Action Plan on adaptation • Adaptation or mitigation? • Options (summarized) for the SEE countries in the negotiations process • Questions for discussion

3. General remarks • Geographical scope: South Eastern Europe • Methodological Scope: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia – included in the paper • Slovenia – a member state, Annex I Party – not included) • Croatia – a candidate member states, Annex I Party (not included) • Methodology: from capacity building point of view taking into consideration already existing information. • What is NOT yet known: • Type of reduction commitments • Parties which will take the committments • Approach to flexibility, whether the flexible mechanisms will last beyond 2012

4. Status of the SEE countries and European Community under UNFCCC and KP • Status of the SEE countries vis-a-vis the Convention and Protocol • UNFCC Convention ratified by all of them - Non-Annex I under the Convention; • KP ratified by all of the SEE countries - Non Annex B under the Protocol, no quantified GHG reduction target • Eligible for CDM mechanisms – on the way to implementation, different stages • No big carbon polluters • Enlargement process: • FYR Macedonia – candidate country • Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia – potential candidate countries • European Community is a Party as the only regional economic integration organization: • Annex I of the Convention; • Annex B of the Protocol (with 8% emission reduction target in the first commitment period); • True: European Community should comply with the target as old EU-15; • However, reporting obligations for the new MS are the same as for EU-15; • Highly unlikely that in post-Kyoto reporting obligations will become less stringent

5. Enlargement

6. Comittments and reduction Targets • SEE countries under the current Bali Action Plan - the requirement is Measurable Reportable Verifiable National Appropriate Mitigation Actions • EC Communication to the European Parliament and the European Council of the Ministers titled “Towards a Comprehensive Climate Change Agreement in Copenhagen” (28 January 2009): • An autonomous 20% reduction of the EU emissions by 2020 below 1990; • A 30% reduction target in the context of a sufficiently ambitious and comprehensive international agreement • Calls on candidate and potential candidates to join

7. Reporting:Current reporting obligations of the non-Annex I Parties • Convention (Articles 4.1 and 12): all Parties must report on the steps they are taking or envisage undertaking to implement the Convention .  • In accordance with the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities", the required contents of these national communications and the timetable for their submission is different for Annex I and non-Annex I Parties.  • Each non-Annex I Party shall submit its initial communication within three years of the entry into force of the Convention for that Party, or of the availability of financial resources • Core elements of the non-Annex I National Communications: • emissions and removals of greenhouse gases (GHGs) – year 1990 or 1994 for the initial NC and year 2000 for the Second NC ; • details of the activities a Party has undertaken to implement the Convention • national circumstances • vulnerability assessment, • financial resources and transfer of technology, and • education, training and public awareness

8. Reporting obligations under EUProgress Evaluation Report • Under the Monitoring Mechanism, the European Commission has to assess, whether the actual and projected progress of Member States is sufficient to ensure fulfilment of the EC's commitments under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol; • Commission has to prepare a progress evaluation report, which has to be forwarded to the European Parliament and the Council by October each year; • Member States have to submit their respective reports by end of May – beginning of July once in two years • Content: • Projections of economic indicators for the economy as a whole and by sector • Projections of the GHG • State of implementation of CCPM (climate related Directives) • State of Flexible Mechanisms

9. Reporting obligations under EUEU ETS • 31 March – verified reports from the installations should be submitted to the respective authorities • NAP preparation- not any more. But some kind of preparatory reporting should be expected.

10. Reporting of an new EU MS (Annex I, Annex B) under the UNFCCC and KPTypes of reports • National Communications(every 5 years); • Initial report toestablish assigned amount (once prior tocommitment period); • Report on demonstrableProgress (once in 2006); • Inventories for GHG emissions by sources and removals by sinks (annually); • Annual report (submitted only in the first committment period, annually) • Small trick: the Annual report is not mandatory in the years 2008-2009. However, to get full eligibiity it is…still mandatory. • Submissions of the Parties under various Decisions of COPs and COP/MOPs (as hoc basis)

11. Adaptation (observation, impact asssessment, vulnerability assessment, adaptation measures, indicators of efficiency of the adaptation measures)

12. Scientific evidence of climate change in SEE • SEE Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation adopted on the ministerial level of a number of SEE countries in October 2008 • Rapidly raising temprature • In Europe is it increasing faster than on average in the world • Decreasing precipitation + changed precipitation pattern • Increased occurrence of extreme events • Vulnerability of water secor, biodiversity, human health, energy sector, through lost of infrastructure – any other sectors, tourism, agriculture (including food security), forestry

13. Necessary capacity building activities • Strengthening the scientific basis for observation and modelling, promote the international cooperation between scientists; • Raising awareness at the level of the non-environmental governmental bodies, (Finnish example); • Creating sustainable capacities’; • Improving information flows on the inter-ministerial level; • Raising awareness at the level of the stakeholders which will be affected by the consequences of climate change – involving them (where possible);

14. SEE countries at the international negotiations • Lack of human capacities vis-a-vis numerous negotiations groups (Agenda of COP, agenda of MOP, agenda of SBI, agenda of SBSTA, AWG-KP, AWG-LCA) • Options proposed - summary: • To continue the negotiations on your own in the most important group • Join the other group (G-77, former CG 11) • Form onw negitiation group

15. Question for the afternoon discussion • Re-grouping of the countries. • How to converge in the best way the process of enlargement and implementation of the Convention? • Adaptation and mitigation: what’s first?

16. Thank you for your attention! mkhova@rec.org