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2015 Annual Validation Update

2015 Annual Validation Update. PWG Meeting February 24, 2016. 2015 Annual Validation Schedule. 2015 Annual Validation Business Update. These are the numbers as of 2/17/2016. 2015 Annual Validation Residential Update. These are the numbers as of 2/17/2016.

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2015 Annual Validation Update

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  1. 2015 Annual Validation Update PWG Meeting February 24, 2016

  2. 2015 Annual Validation Schedule

  3. 2015 Annual Validation Business Update These are the numbers as of 2/17/2016

  4. 2015 Annual Validation Residential Update These are the numbers as of 2/17/2016

  5. 2015 Annual Validation Business Changes

  6. 2015 Annual Validation Business Changes

  7. 2013_AMS_Changes 49,555 23,981 All 6 R² < .4, change to low Any 3R² >= .6, change to hi Current=HI Current=LOW Calculate R² (correlation between Daily kWh and WZ average DBT 2013 Currently LOW; 3 R² >.6; change to HI 2013 Currently hi; all 6 R² <.4; change to LOW ESI ID’s that meet the requirements Warm Winter 90% of Feb ’13 data 90% of Jan ‘13 data .4 .4 .4 .4 Warm Winter 90% of Feb ‘12 data 90% of Jan ‘12 data .6 .4 .4 .4 Cold Winter 90% of Feb ‘11 data 90% of Jan ‘11 data .4 .4 .6 .6 Active as of 1/1/2011

  8. 2014_AMS_Changes 98,678 71,363 All 6 R² < .4, change to low Any 3R² >= .6, change to hi Current=HI Current=LOW Calculate R² (correlation between Daily kWh and WZ average DBT 2014 Drop off 2011, gain 2014; Still LOW; Not enough to change to HI (need 3) 2014 Drop off 2011, gain 2014; Still HI, need all 6 to be .4 ESI ID’s that meet the requirements Cold Winter 90% of Feb ‘14data 90% of Jan ‘14 data .4 .6 .4 .6 Warm Winter 90% of Feb ‘13 data 90% of Jan ‘13 data .4 .4 .4 .4 Warmer Winter 90% of Feb ‘12 data 90% of Jan ‘12 data .4 .4 .6 .4 Active as of 1/1/2012

  9. 2015_AMS_Changes 448 flipped from 2013 3,435 flipped from 2013 31,681 171,648 All 6 R² < .4, change to low Any 3R² >= .6, change to hi Current=HI Current=LOW Calculate R² (correlation between Daily kWh and WZ average DBT 2015 Drop off 2012, gain 2015; now we have at least 3 months that are “new” (compared to 2013), if three of those >.6, change to Res HI (3,435) 2015 Drop off 2012, gain 2015; now all 6 months are .4; thus we can change to LOW ESI ID’s that meet the requirements Cold Winter 90% of Feb ‘15data 90% of Jan ‘15 data .4 .6 .4 .6 Cold Winter 90% of Feb ‘14 data 90% of Jan ‘14 data .4 .4 .6 .6 Warmer Winter 90% of Feb ‘13 data 90% of Jan ‘13 data .4 .4 .4 .4 Active as of 1/1/2013

  10. Residential AMS Segment Assignment The following process is specified in the Segment Assignment tab of the Load Profiling Guide Appendix D (Profile Decision Tree.)

  11. Residential AMS Segment Assignment

  12. Residential Percent Change Summary

  13. Summary of Residential Changes by TDSP

  14. Summary of RES Changes by Weather Zone

  15. Summary of RES Changes by Weather Zone

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