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“ The environmental, economic and social impacts of climate change in Greece ” Christos Zerefos

“ The environmental, economic and social impacts of climate change in Greece ” Christos Zerefos. Winter (DJF) averaged-mean Mediterranean temperature anomalies (with respect to 1961-1990) from 1500 to 2002. (Luterbacher et. al., 2006).

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“ The environmental, economic and social impacts of climate change in Greece ” Christos Zerefos

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  1. “The environmental, economic and social • impacts of climate change in Greece” • Christos Zerefos

  2. Winter (DJF) averaged-mean Mediterranean temperature anomalies (with respect to 1961-1990) from 1500 to 2002.(Luterbacher et. al., 2006)

  3. Changes in Rainy Season Precipitation during 20thcenturyandits relationship withNorth Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOi) r = -0.38 ( >99% conf. level) r = -0.21 ( 95% conf. level) r = -0.19 ( 90% conf. level)

  4. Emissions scenarios Temporal Evolution of CO2Concentration under different emission scenarios Emission Scenarios Storyline

  5. Greek Climatic Zones WCM:West-Central Macedonia EMT: Eastern Macedonia/Thrace WG: West Greece CEG: Central-Eastern Greece ATT: Attica WP: West Peloponnese EP: Eastern Peloponnese I: Ionian ΝΑ: North Aegean ΕΑ: EastAegean CY: Cyclades C: Crete D: Dodecanese

  6. Climate At the end of 21st century, due to anthropogenic activity: • precipitation will reduce between 5% and 19% for the territory • air temperature will increase between 3,0 ºC and 4,5 ºC • relative humidity will decrease between 1% to 4% • intensity of annual winds will increase by 10% • cloud cover will decrease between 8% and 14% • mean incident solar radiation will increase between 2,3 W/m2 και 4,5 W/m2

  7. Mean Air Temperature SRES A1B: Mean Air Temperature Change between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 • 2021-2050, SRESA1B :Over Greece Mean annual air Temperatureincrease by 1.4 oC. • 2071-2100:Over Greece Mean annual air Temperatureincrease by 2.8 oC (SRESB2) up to 3.9 oC (SRESA2) • Temperature increase is more significant during summer and autumn than during winter and spring. • Temperature increase is more prominent over land. SRES A1B: Mean Air Temperature Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 Mean Air Temperature Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990

  8. Precipitation SRES A1B: Mean Annual PrecipitationPercentage Change Between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 • 2021-2050, SRES A1B: Over Greece Mean annual Precipitationis predicted to decrease by 6.5%. • 2071-2100: Over Greece Mean annual Precipitationis predicted to decrease by 5% (SRES B2) and by18% (SRES A1B, SRES A2) SRES A1B: Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change Between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change Between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990

  9. Relative Humidity SRESA1B: Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative Humidity between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 • 2021-2050, SRES A1B: Over Continental Greece Mean annual Relative Humidityis predicted to decrease by 2%. • 2071-2100: Over Continental Greece Mean annual Relative Humidityis predicted to decrease for 2.5%up to 4% (SRES B2) and for 6%up to 10%(SRES A2) • Relative Humiditydecrease is predicted to be more significant for summer season. SRESA1B: Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative Humidity between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative Humidity between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990

  10. Wind Speed SRES A1B: Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 • For Greece as a whole mean annual Wind Speed will be not change during 21th century • 2071-2100: Mean annual Wind Speed is predicted to increase up to 5% over Aegean and on the contrary is predicted to decrease up to 5% over Ionian • During summer Etesian Winds will be increase significantly up to 10% SRES A1B: Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990

  11. Cloud Fractional Cover SRES A1B: Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 • 2021-2050, SRESA1B: Over GreeceMean annual Cloud fractional Cover is predicted to be reduced by6% • 2071-2100: Mean annual Cloud fractional Cover is predicted to be reduced by8% (SRESB2) by12% (SRES A1B) by14% (SRES A2) SRES A1B: Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990

  12. Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation SRES A1B:Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation Change between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 • 2021-2050, SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation increase by 1,3 W/m2. • 2071-2100: Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation increase by 3,1 W/m2 (SRESB2) by4,1 W/m2 (SRES A2) • The increase is more prominent over land, especially in western and northern parts SRES A1B:Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990

  13. Climate Changes are also expected on • extreme precipitation values • flood periods • duration of dry periods • number of days with a highly increased risk of fire

  14. Precipitation deficit as drought potential indication (number of events for the period 1904-1995)

  15. Maximum duration of dry season Increase of maximum duration of dry season in Eastern Continental Greece and Northern Crete • by 20 additional days in 2021-2050 • by 40 additional days in 2071-2100 Lower increases in westerm and northern Greece up to 20 days in 2071-2100 2021-2050 μείον 1961-1990 2071-2100 μείον 1961-1990

  16. Forest fire distribution on European level (1997-2003)

  17. Number of days with highly increased forest fire risk Increase in the number of days with highly increased forest fire risk in eastern Greece • 20 days in 2021-2050 • 40 days in 2071-2100 Lower increases in western Greece due to wetter climate 2021-2050 minus 1961-1990 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990

  18. Water Resources Total losses for the economy of Greece: • 0,34% of GDP for the A1B Emissions Scenario with discount rate3% • 1,69% of GDP for the A2 Emissions Scenario with discount rate 1% Important potential for adaptation actions

  19. Sea Level Rise and Consequences in Coastal Areas • €4.4bn for a sea level rise of 0.5m • €8bn for a sea level rise of 1m

  20. Fishing Industry Losses for Greek economy: €14.8m to €2.5m depending on • Emissions Scenario • Discount rate 1% to 3%) Economic cost of the reduction of biodiversity: €287m to €1,896m

  21. Agriculture • Loss of agricultural land: • 19% by 2040-2050 • 38% by 2090-2100 • Warm-friendly cultivations: +20% Cold-friendly cultivations: -20% • Positive impact in northern and western Greece • No impact in Central Greece • Negative impact in southern Greece and islands including Crete Negative effects most pronounced near the end of the 21st century

  22. Forestry and Forest Ecosystems • Fire fighting expenses will rise by €40m (Β2) to €80m (Α2) • Direct consecuences: • Losses of €1.4bn (Β2) with discount rate 3% • Losses of €9.5bn (Α2) with discount rate 1%

  23. Biodiversity and Ecosystems • €1.14m to €240.83m for forest ecosystems • €15.59m to €172.1m for the lakes Cheimaditida and Kerkini The total economic consequences could not be estimated The estimated consequences may be considered as the lower limit of the total

  24. Tourism Tourism climate index • Winter and spring: Improvment • Autumn: Great improvment • Summer: Significant worsening Crete: Rise in the mean annual income Dodekanese: Reduction in the mean annual income

  25. Building environment Cost for nulifying the energy consumption of the building sector by 2050 • Additional cost due to climate change: 9.6% • Ranges from 7.6% to 10.3% in the different areas • Additional cost estimated to €20-21bn

  26. Transportation • Cost for the infrastructure maintenance €594,8m/year to €195m/year depending on the GHG emissions • Cost of delays in service due to climate change (extreme events, overheating of infrastructure etc.): €28bn to €9.3bn

  27. Public Health • Increase in mortality in Europe: 1% to 4% • Mortality due to extreme temperatures, in Attica, in 2091-2100: 1620 deaths per year • Economical cost for Attica: €95m per year • Mortality increase in Ahens: 2260 to 1455 deaths per year • Economical cost for Athens: €85m to €135m

  28. Cost of No-Action Scenario • Annual GDP reduction in 2050: 2% Annual GDP reduction in 2100: 6% • Accumulated cost to 2100: €701bn (values of 2008) • The accumulated cost to 2100 equals to three times the GDB of Greece Similar results have been reached for the whole Earth

  29. Cost of Mitigation Scenario • Cost of GHG emissions reduction: €142bn • Cost of residual climate change • Accumulated cost of Mitigation Scenario to 2100: €436bn • €265bn less (-40%) than No-Action Scenario Discount rate was concidered zero

  30. Cost of Adaptation Scenario Sum of • Cost of adaptation measures • Cost of damages due to climate change Accumulated cost of Adaptation Scenario to 2100: €578bn

  31. Links • http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/el/klima/default.aspx • http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/el/klima/results.aspx

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