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$ Retail Sales $

$ Retail Sales $

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$ Retail Sales $

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  1. $ Retail Sales $ Economics 240A Team Member: Yi-Ling Liu Luke Panzar Salam Engler Edgar Torres Allyson Cady

  2. Background • What

  3. Background • What • Effects on Retail Sales from Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rate, and others

  4. Background • What • Effects on Retail Sales from Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rate, and others • Why

  5. Background • What • Effects on Retail Sales from Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rate, and others • Why • Understand some variables that affect Retail Sales

  6. Background • What • Effects on Retail Sales from Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rate, and others • Why • Understand some variables that affect Retail Sales • How

  7. Background • What • Effects on Retail Sales from Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rate, and others • Why • Understand some variables that affect Retail Sales • How • Statistical Methods (i.e. Least Mean Squares, Regression)

  8. Approach • Long Term Affected by:

  9. Approach • Long Term Affected by: • Personal Income

  10. Data Analysis Personal Disposable vs. Retail Sales Long Term

  11. Probably Affecting Variables • Short Term:

  12. Probably Affecting Variables • Short Term: • Personal Income

  13. Probably Affecting Variables • Short Term: • Personal Income • Consumer Confidence

  14. Probably Affecting Variables • Short Term: • Personal Income • Consumer Confidence • Interest Rate

  15. Probably Affecting Variables • Short Term: • Personal Income • Consumer Confidence • Interest Rate • S & P Composite

  16. Probably Affecting Variables • Short Term: • Personal Income • Consumer Confidence • Interest Rate • S & P Composite • Unemployment Rate

  17. Data Analysis Personal Disposable vs. Retail Sales Short Term

  18. Data Analysis Lagging Personal Disposable Income (Short Term)

  19. Data Analysis Personal Disposable Income, Consumer Confidence, vs.Retail Sales Short Term

  20. Data Analysis Addition of Real Prime Rate

  21. Data Analysis Addition of S & P Composite

  22. Data Analysis Addition of Unemployment Rate

  23. Data Analysis Final Combination of Affecting Variables Short Run

  24. Summary • What Affects Retail Sales over the Long Run?

  25. Summary • What Affects Retail Sales over the Long Run? • Personal Disposable Income

  26. Summary • What Affects Retail Sales over the Short Run?

  27. Summary • What Affects Retail Sales over the Short Run? • Personal Disposable Income • Consumer Confidence • Real Prime Rate • S & P Composite • Unemployment Rate

  28. The End • Thank you • Gracias • (pronounced Shie Shie) • Merci • Danke • Domo Ari Gato

  29. Appendix Some Data