Emerging Trends and Risk Hotspots Climate Change and Humanitarian Risk Hotspots Andrew Hartley

1. Emerging Trends and Risk Hotspots Climate Change and Humanitarian Risk Hotspots Andrew Hartley Dr. Andrew Thow Prof. Alyson Warhurst November 2008 Andrew Hartley andrew.hartley@maplecroft.com

2. Maplecroft • Risk advisory to NGOs, governments and business • Work in partnership with our clients • Academic rigour and methodologies • Building capacity based on best practice standards • Address concerns and expectations of stakeholders • Creativity in presentation and delivery • A multi-cultural team of over 30 professionals • Proven track record of projects with blue-chip corporations, UN organisations and NGOs. • Experience in sectors including humanitarian, retail, mining, energy, banking, technology, logistics, transportation, ICTs • Long-established relationships and advisory to key clients • Risk, Responsibility and Reputation

3. Climate change and human vulnerability: Mapping emerging trends and risk hotspots for humanitarian actors Dr Andrew Thow, Prof. Alyson Warhurst, and Mark deBlois March 2008 In collaboration with CARE International, 7-9 Chemin de Balexert, 1219 Chatelaine, Geneva, Switzerland

4. Recent history of natural disasters How is the climate predicted to change? How do we assess risk? Assessing current humanitarian risk hotspots: a GIS approach Implications for humanitarian organisations What measures can be taken to mitigate against these risks? Climate Change and Humanitarian Risk Hotspots

5. Recent history of natural disasters • During 2005 and 2006, natural disasters killed 120,000 people • 271 million affected • $250 billion in economic losses • Human and economic costs are increasing • 97% of disaster related deaths occur in developing countries • Economic losses as % of GDP are heaviest in lower income countries • Potential to have a significant impact on achieving Millennium Development Goals • Knowledge still poor about contributing factors especially where global risks conflate e.g. • climate change; water, food and energy security; health; education, financial inclusion Number of people affected by natural disasters is increasing. (source: World Bank, 2006. Hazards of Nature, Risks to Development)

6. How do we assess risk? Hazard Flood Cyclone Drought Vulnerability Natural, human, social, financial, physical Risk Flood risk hotspots Cyclone risk hotspots Drought risk hotspots + = • Impact of a humanitarian disaster is related to the degree of exposure to a particular hazard, and • Vulnerability of a population is determined by a range of social, economic, political and environmental factors (e.g. poverty, governance, conflict, urbanisation, resource security, climate change etc.)

7. Assessing Risk: A GIS Approach Hazards

8. Temperature trends

9. Precipitation trends • In a warmer climate, global average precipitation will increase by ~ 1-2% per degree of warming How is the climate predicted to change? • Dotted areas denote >90% agreement between models • Considerable changes are likely, but in many significant regions, models do not agree Projected changes using A1B scenario for the period 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999. (source IPCC after Tebaldi et al)

10. Current Climatic Hazards Source: Dilley et al. Natural Disaster Hotspots: A global risk analysis. World Bank and Colombia University, 2005

11. Current Climatic Hazards Global Warming Art, 2008. http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Tropical_Storm_Map_png

12. Assessing Risk: A GIS Approach Vulnerability

13. Overall Human Vulnerability Overall human vulnerability based on a combination of natural, human, social, financial and physical factors

14. Overall Human Vulnerability: Analysis and limitations

15. Sudden Onset Hazards: Flood Risk Hotspots • Intensity and duration of droughts is likely to increase • Areas affected are also likely to expand

16. Sudden Onset Hazards : Cyclone Risk Hotspots • Intensity and frequency of cyclones is likely to increase, due to rising sea surface temperatures • Projections of future distributions of cyclones from GCMs are very uncertain

17. Slow Onset Hazards : Drought • Intensity and duration of droughts is likely to increase • Spatial distribution of droughts is unlikely to change significantly in the next 30 years

18. All Hazards Hotspots Combined Map showing cumulative humanitarian risk hotspots for all three climate-related hazards studied – floods, cyclones and drought. Areas at risk for more than one type of hazard are considered to be of most concern for humanitarian actors.

19. Risk Hotspots and Population Density

20. Risk Hotspots and Population Density Change

21. Key findings and the road ahead

22. Key findings • The spatial distribution of humanitarian risks from flooding, cyclones and drought will remain largely the same in the future • Current areas of humanitarian focus remain critical • Sudden onset events are likely to be more frequent and have greater impact • Human Vulnerability - most important factor in determining the impact of future events • South East Africa and South and South East Asia are likely to suffer from an intensification of multiple hazards • Climate change impacts on humanitarian risks are likely to be further impacted by risk of conflict, particularly around areas of high water and food insecurity • Efforts should be focused on reducing human vulnerability and on improving the ability of communities to adapt to even small changes in climate as they occur • By understanding the patterns of different global risks we can get a more accurate understanding of current risk hot spots and emerging trends

23. Thank you... For more information please visit www.global-risks.com ... Or contact me directly Andrew Hartley andrew.hartley@maplecroft.com