Conjola District Lakecare Association

1. Presentation to the Climate Risk Workshop regarding the Griffith University research project: Communities on the Edge. Conjola District Lakecare Association Community Consultative Body for Lake Conjola, Conjola Park, and Fishermans Paradise.

2. The Conjola District Lakecare Association is an autonomous body within the Lake Conjola physical catchment representing the interests of the local communities and environment and reporting and negotiating these to Shoalhaven City Council and other levels of Government. The Association is a Community Consultative Body (CCB), one of about 25 in the Shoalhaven LGA and was established under the CCB Guidelines set by Shoalhaven City Council. It reports to Council but is not a Committee of Council. Our Association was approached by Griffith University as our area’s natural hazards (flooding and bushfire) as well as its semi-remote location and limited road access make it a good candidate for the research aims of their project: Communities on the Edge: Understanding the thresholds to coastal communities’ resilience and adaptation to natural hazards.

3. Our Association is making an in-kind contribution for the 3-year duration of the project which will comprise items such as member’s time, provision of maps, documents, and surveys, printing of fliers, obtaining media coverage, and possibly provision of venues and accommodation from time to time. The benefits of this study for Lake Conjola, the Shoalhaven, and coastal communities generally can be summarised as follows: Produces an action plan for the resilient development of the Conjola District over a number of years, May be transferrable and scalable to assist other similar communities, Has a close fit with the work of Council’s Coastal Committee and associated Policies, and Will assist the Shoalhaven’s standing as being on the cutting edge of appropriate research applying to coastal issues.

4. Methodology: Scenario Planning • Scenario planning is a strategic tool. It can be used to develop a science based decision making framework in the face of high uncertainty and low controllability (Peterson et al, 2003). • It provides a systematic approach for the development and testing of plans, strategies and policies in an uncertain environment through the creation of possible futures to test them in (O’Brien, undated). • Scenario planning creates possible futures to inform present decision-making. Developed during World War 2 and then pioneered by the Royal Dutch Shell Company, the technique is now widely used to consider the future by the public and private sectors worldwide. • Futures thinking needs a structured systematic approach to explore the range of possible futures rather than relying on the prediction of a single expected or ‘most-likely’ future(Cork et al, 2005). • To this end, scenario planning involves: • 1. the identification of a focal issue or question; • 2. assessing certain and uncertain drivers of the issue or question over a selected timeframe; • 3. the development of options based on those drivers – i.e. creation of scenarios (plausible and coherent pictures of possible futures); • 4. the development of narratives from the present to the possible futures (including a ‘roadmap’ for each scenario with signposts that could indicate if one future is becoming more likely than another) and, • 5. testing existing plans, strategies and policies against each scenarios. • Scenario planning is instructive for a decision context that involves a particular question or problem that demands action now but will play out in an uncertain future (O’Brien, undated). It involves the systematic exploration and description of the range of ways in which uncertainties could be played out and their impact on the focal question. • Scenario planning “simplifies the avalanche of data into a limited number of possible states” (Schoemaker, 1995: 27). • Each scenario involves the consideration of: likely trends; uncertainties; and possible shocks and surprises (welcome and unwelcome). • Because the actual scenario planning exercise normally involves a small select group, it is important that the scenarios are communicated to the wider audience of stakeholders so that they too can benefit from the reflection of the scenarios and their consequences. The scenarios can provide a useful ‘hypothetical’ to engage stakeholders about the uncertainties of the future, especially in the context of a wider regional planning and visioning exercise.

5. Media release and flier (funded and hand delivered by CDLA) Time to Think By Sue Ferguson The Conjola District Resilience Project is heading for the second meeting with researchers on the 29th June and residents in the district are encouraged to think. At the first Conjola Resilience Forum in May, residents were asked by Professor Darryl Low Choy, to think about the idea of long term strategic planning of the communities in the Conjola District. “How do you want your communities to look in 20 to 30 years time?” Professor Low Choy from Griffith University in Queensland asked the residents who attended the May forum. “How does a community self empower itself to come up with a plan?” Professor Low Choy posed the research questions at the last forum. “This is not a council plan” he said. It is a plan created by community members with the assistance of the Professor and his Research Fellow Dr Sylvia Serrao-Neumann. As the Conjola District including Fishermans Paradise, the upper catchment and Lake Conjola is an area vulnerable to the natural hazards such as storms, floods, fire and rising sea levels, it was selected for the Resilience Research Project. Resilience is a very new field with the focus on enhancing the strengths and ability people have to adapt to the impacts of the changes in weather patterns. “Why did they rebuild Darwin in the same spot after Cyclone Tracey?” We have had this mantra that big brother, government and local etc will look after us the Professor said “Can we continue to expect that as more extreme weather events occur? Why don’t we plan for it in a broad sense?” While these were just some of the questions put those who attended the first forum could go away and think about, there will be more food for thought as the next forum is to be held at the Lake Conjola Community Centre in a couple of weeks. Bookings are needed for catering. For more information, contact Elaine Caswell

7. SWOT Analysis

8. Bushfire Threat…..years since last fire (2008) RFS

9. Next Workshop Saturday 23 November 2013………….

10. Contacts for further information:David Wilson President CDLA dmwilson@internode.on.net 0409 927 179Professor Darryl Low-Choy Griffith University School of Environment Urban Research Program d.lowchoy@griffith.edu.auDr. Silvia Serrao-Neumann Research Fellow CRC Water Sensitive Cities Urban Research Program Griffith UniversityT: (07) 373 55275 F: (07) 373 54026 M: 0410 506 282 E: s.serrao-neumann@griffith.edu.au Scenario Planning Scenario planning creates possible futures to inform present decision-making. It is used to develop a science based decision-making framework in the face of high uncertainty and low controllability of future events. This involves the employment of a systematic approach for the development and testing of plans, strategies and policies in an uncertain environment through the creation of possible futures to test them in. Scenarios consider likely future trends, uncertainties and possible shocks and surprises. They involve the systematic exploration and description of the range of ways in which uncertainties could be played out and their likely impacts on society and the landscape Draft Vision Lake Conjola District will continue to be acclaimed by its natural beauty. It will become an inspirational model of a community living and working together to adapt and respond to natural hazards and reach common and sustainable solutions which protect and conserve the environment and the lake for future generations. The District’s congenial character is retained within the footprint of the existing settlements to serve the needs of residents and visitors within the area’s sustainable limits.