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IFEX 2010 NOAA’s plans for Summer 2010

IFEX 2010 NOAA’s plans for Summer 2010. Robert Rogers NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division. Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX; Rogers et al., BAMS, 2006). IFEX intended to improve prediction of TC intensity change by:

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IFEX 2010 NOAA’s plans for Summer 2010

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  1. IFEX 2010NOAA’s plans for Summer 2010 Robert Rogers NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division

  2. Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX; Rogers et al., BAMS, 2006) IFEX intended to improve prediction of TC intensity change by: collecting observations that span TC life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation developing and refining measurement technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment improving understanding of physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle

  3. 2010 HRD Field Program Plans • Continuation of IFEX objectives • ~700 hours total for all aircraft • N42RF (P-3) will be available by early June, N43RF available early August, N49RF (G-IV) available early June • Crews available for two-per-day missions starting early July (Tampa and deployments)

  4. Focus areas for 2010 IFEX goal 3: Improving understanding IFEX goal 1: Collecting observations for model initialization/evaluation • Doppler radar • Synoptic surveillance • HWRFx real-time runs • HFIP real-time runs • Genesis • SAL/vortex interactions • Rapid Intensity Change • Ocean observations • Landfall coordination IFEX goal 2: Developing and refining measurement technologies • SFMR evaluations/possible HIRAD • Doppler Wind Lidar • Ocean winds/AWRAP • Coyote low-level UAS • Global Hawk high-level UAS

  5. IFEX1: HWRF Doppler Support Missions • 2 P-3 Flights per day--on-station time centered on 0, 6, 12, and 18 UTC analysis periods -optimum 3 days of flights in a row starting at tropical depression or maybe pre-depression stage • For example, data for 12 UTC analysis, must be collected from 0900-1500 UTC. Thus, P-3 takeoffs will be planned (within personnel and safety constraints) to maximize time within this window TS Dolly (2008) 7/21 23Z 7/22 11Z 7/22 23Z

  6. IFEX1: Real-time Doppler Data • ASCII files containing wind fields at 0.5 & 1.0 km, & vertical cross-sections, available to NHC • Real-time 3D wind fields on AOML ftp site for possible assimilation/initialization of models • Trimmed, quality-controlled Doppler radials for assimilation into parallel HWRF -path off aircraft appears not quite ready yet • Doppler radial-velocity superobs transmitted to AOML ftp site for researchers to assimilate

  7. IFEX 1: HWRFx-HFIP Demo System • HWRFx: based on WRF-NMM code, similar architecture to HWRF • HWRF initial conditions currently; EnKF using airborne radar, GPS drops under development • Coupling with ocean model under development • 9-3 km current capability, near completion of 9-3-1 km capability Wind swaths for Hurricane Bill and TS Erika (2009) for 9-3 km Axisymmetric tangential wind from Hurricane Katrina (2005) after RI 16 16 16 Doppler 27:9 km 9:3 km 19:23Z 8/28 03Z 8/29 03Z 8/29 14 14 14 12 12 12 10 10 10 height (km) 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 100 100 25 50 75 25 50 75 25 50 75 100 radius (km) radius (km) radius (km)

  8. IFEX 1: FY09 HFIP Real-time Test Diverse NOAA (HRD, ESRL, NCEP/NHC, NCO, EMC), Navy (NRL), NCAR, and university (FSU, PSU, SUNYA, URI, TACC) team testing on-demand capability to support operational hurricane forecasting. Build upon FY08 HFIP HRH & TACC efforts to use high resolution: Global (FIM and GFS at 10-km, plus 15-km FIM ensembles); and Regional models, both operational and experimental, to demonstrate on-demand capability and multi-model regional ensembles. HWRF (operational, 4-km, 3-km HWRFx) GFDL WRF-ARW (4-km NCAR, 4-km FSU, 4.5-km PSU using EnKF to assimilate Doppler superobs) COAMPS-TC MM5 (4-km) NCEP model fields & NOAA P-3 Doppler radar superobs transferred automatically from NCO to ESRL and TACC, experimental models run, standard output products generated for forecasters, and products transferred to NHC. Products ATCF tracks (Marchok and other trackers) HRH diagnostic suite (track (Marchok tracker), intensity, RI) Ensemble diagnostics New diagnostic and evaluation tools

  9. IFEX2: Developing & refining measurement technologies HIRAD (Hurricane Imaging Radiometer) Simulation of surface wind speed (m s-1) seen from 18-km altitude in mature TC with HIRAD • Passive C-band Radiometer, similar technology to SFMR • Objective: To measure strong ocean surface winds through heavy rain from air or space-based platform • Cross-track as well as along-track imaging (Swath width ~60o,~3 x altitude) • Winds dynamic range: 10 – 85 m/s, through rain up to ~90 mm/hr • Would complement scatterometers and lidars • Institutional Partnerships: • Project leadership, PI, and engineering at NASA/MSFC • Technology, engineering, and science partners: NOAA/HRD, Univ. Central Florida, Univ. Michigan, Univ. Alabama Huntsville

  10. IWRAP/AWRAP Overview C-band and Ku-band Conically-Scanning Profiling Scatterometer Simultaneous dual-frequency measurements of: Volume reflectivity and Doppler profiles Surface normalized radar cross-section Supports: Calibration/Validation of current OSVW satellite missions (ASCAT/METOP and Oceansat-2 scatterometer) Risk reduction for future satellite sensors (Dual-Frequency Scatterometer on GCOM-W2)‏ Ocean and atmospheric boundary layer research (tropical and extratropical cyclones) Improved utilization of existing OSVW data via improved knowledge of remote-sensing capabilities and limitations in extreme environmental conditions (i.e., tropical and extratropical cyclones) IFEX2: Developing & refining measurement technologies

  11. IFEX2: Developing & refining measurement technologies Coyote Low-Altitude UAS • Fill existing low altitude data void in hurricanes • Safely provide continuous observations of T,P,V, q below 200ft Coyote UAS – P3 Mature Hurricane Eyewall Pattern

  12. IFEX2: Developing & refining measurement technologies Example of P3 Doppler Wind Lidar data display in Google Earth • Winds are displayed in 50 meter vertical resolution wind flags; • Panel between wind profiles contains aerosol loading as function of height Courtesy G. D. Emmitt

  13. IFEX3: Tropical cyclogenesis • Convective/mesoscale interactions during genesis (e.g., “bottom-up” vs. “top-down”, convective vs. stratiform processes) • Synoptic-scale influences on genesis (e.g., SAL, “marsupial” paradigm) • Coordinated G-IV/P-3 missions provide multiscale, broad temporal coverage Doppler-derived wind speed and vectors (m s-1) for Pre-Fay (2008) 5 km 5 km 5 km Best track position of Fay (courtesy weather.unisys.com) 1 km 1 km 1 km 07:40Z 14Aug 18:35Z 14Aug 19:25Z 15Aug

  14. IFEX3: SAL/Vortex interactions CIMSS TPW (1200 UTC) 86 kt SE jet Dry air intrusion Dry air intrusion 46 kt SSE jet Arc Clouds How does moisture and vertical wind shear in the surrounding TC environment impact TC intensity? Hurricane Bill (20 Aug 2009) Hypothesis: Arc cloud formation can disrupt TC intensity by: a) promoting downdrafts locally b) promoting low to mid-leveloutflow c) bringing cool, dry air down into the boundary layer

  15. IFEX3: Rapid Intensity Change • Convective/mesoscale interactions during RI (e.g., role of convective hot towers, convective vs. stratiform processes) • Synoptic-scale influences on RI (e.g., SAL) • Coordinated G-IV/P-3 missions provide multiscale, broad temporal coverage P3 P3 P3 Paloma (2008) RI experiment r-z plots of axisymmetric reflectivity (dBZ, top) and wind speed (m s-1, bottom) for Paloma (2008) 18 18 18 18 18 18 06:56Z 07Nov 17:54Z 07Nov 17:21Z 08Nov 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 12 12 height (km) 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 80 80 80 80 80 20 40 60 100 120 20 20 20 40 40 40 60 60 60 100 100 100 120 120 120 20 40 60 100 120 20 40 60 100 120 r (km) r (km) r (km) 17:54Z 07Nov 17:21Z 08Nov 06:56Z 07Nov height (km) r (km) r (km) r (km)

  16. IFEX3: Loop Current Response During TC Passage • Observe and improve our understanding of the LC response to the near-surface wind structure during TC passages. Specific objectives are: • Determine the oceanic response of the LC to TC forcing; and, • Influence of the LC response on the TC’s boundary layer and intensity. Deliverables include: V, T, S profiles to 1000 m @ 2-m resolution. Surface winds (SFMR, GPS) provided by HRD. Atmospheric profiles of V, T and RH @ 5-m resolution.

  17. IFEX3: LANDfall and Inland decay • Diagnose and understand processes that control size and structure of surface wind field at landfall and inland • Measure structure of intense convection located in an offshore rainband • Coordination among airborne and ground-based sensors • Airborne sensors • Airborne Doppler • GPS dropsondes • Flight-level, SFMR winds • AWRAP • SRA • Ground sensors (DHC) • FCMP towers • TTU Sticknet • Mobile radars • Coastal Mesonets • 88D radars

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