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Benefit Analysis in CAFE 11-12 May 2004 Matti Vainio European Commission DG Environment, Unit C1

Benefit Analysis in CAFE 11-12 May 2004 Matti Vainio European Commission DG Environment, Unit C1. Objectives. Analysis of the impacts and the costs and benefits of different policy options for improving air quality in the enlarged EU. Identify possible ancillary benefits and dis-benefits.

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Benefit Analysis in CAFE 11-12 May 2004 Matti Vainio European Commission DG Environment, Unit C1

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  1. Benefit Analysis in CAFE 11-12 May 2004 Matti Vainio European Commission DG Environment, Unit C1

  2. Objectives • Analysis of the impacts and the costs and benefits of different policy options for improving air quality in the enlarged EU. • Identify possible ancillary benefits and dis-benefits

  3. Consortium Organisation Role AEAT AEA Technology Environment Co - ordinator . Co-ordinator. Paul Watkiss Project management Impact pathways Model development W eb - site Social effects S takeholder consultation EMRC EMRC Technical Coordinator, Lead Mike Holland Lead MCA IOM Institute of Occupational Medicine Health impacts Lead: Fintan Hurley IER Institut fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Modelling Energieanwendung , University of Stuttgart. Impact pathways Lead: Professor Rainer Friedrich E - CO E - CO Tech. Environmental valuation Lead: Stale Navrud ME Metroeconomica Environmental valuation, Lead: Professor Anil Markandya /Alistair Hunt Macro - economic effects WB Witteveen en Bos , Netherlands. Ecosystem valuation Lead: Elisabeth Ruijgrok

  4. Organisation of work • Essential to share information with CLRTAP • Works for DG Environment • WG Target Setting and Policy Assessment will give guidance to DG Environment on choosing scenarios (including instrument choice) • Contractor will work closely with IIASA (RAINS) and and University of Leuven (TREMOVE)

  5. Project Tasks Phase 1 Develop analytical framework and apply it to CAFE baseline (16 mo) • 1. Developing conceptual framework for the analysis • 2. Development of multi-criteria analysis (MCA) • 3. Ensuring costs and benefits are measured with the same metric • 4. Review/consultations on functions and monetary unit values • 5. Estimating marginal damage of pollutants for 2010, 2015, 2020 • 6. Inclusion of costs and benefits at the local scale • 7. Developing framework for social/macro-economic impacts of improved AQ • 8. Creation of a modelling and reporting tool • 9. Preliminary assessments Phase 2 Scenario Analysis (12 mo)

  6. Benefits Model Framework • Bring analysis of different impacts together – quantification and valuation – stock at risk, functions, values • Based around GIS • Take pollution concentration output from RAINS directly • Work at 50 km2 resolution • but also provides way adapting to European and local level (resolution) for cities • Transparent framework – easy to update – sensitivity analysis – not a ‘black box’

  7. Which Benefits? • Health (mortality and morbidity) • Building materials • Crops • Ecosystems • Cultural Heritage • Other (visibility) - possible impact pathway/MCA • Ancillary (greenhouse gas emissions) • Social (employment, deprivation/inequality) • Economic (employment/growth) Traditionally quantified and monetised impact pathway approach Traditionally quantified not monetised - Possible valuation/MCA Traditionally outside analysis - Separate analysis - MCA

  8. RAINS pollutants SO2, NOX, PM10, VOC, ammonia each cell, 50 * 50 km2 grid across Europe ‘CAFE’ Benefits model (GIS) Agreed valuation endpoint list (health, buildings, crops, etc) Stock at Risk (population, buildings, crops, etc) Agreed dose-response list (health, buildings, crops, etc) Automated Impact Pathway Analysis Additional components analysis MCA component (e.g. cultural buildings, ecosystems?) GEM Macro-economic model (country by country) Social analysis Phase 1

  9. Scenario development CBA inputs EMEP RAINS model Pollutant data Modelling of pollutant Processing of concentration across pollutant data Europe on 50 x 50 km Critical loads exceedence grid Impact assessment Core estimate of chronic effects on mortality Cost estimates by Cost analysis scenario, country Phase 2

  10. Phase 1 Development and baseline Peer Review July-August 2004 Methodology outline Dec 2003 Revised methodology March 2004 Draft final methodology Late June 2004 Consultation workshop 5 July 2004 Comments Consultation workshop 13 Dec. 2003

  11. Comments Received in December 2003 Workshop • Comments at workshop, plus • DG Enterprise (Unit E.1 Environment Aspects of Enterprise Policy) •  UK DEFRA •  INERIS •  Coordination Centre for Effects •  VITO •  UK Department of Health

  12. Comments received on Methodology Paper in March 2004

  13. Phase 2 Scenarios Peer Review July-August 2004 Feedback into scenarios Autumn 2004 Final methodology September 2004 Final Scenarios Apr 2005 Completion June 2005 Final baseline analysis

  14. Further information Paul Watkiss [paul.watkiss@aeat.co.uk] Matti Vainio [matti.vainio@cec.eu.int]

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