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The Shifting Predictive Power of Dividend Yield in Market Returns

This analysis explores the diminishing predictive power of dividend yield for future market returns, particularly since the 1980s. Historically, dividend yield was a reliable indicator of a company's financial health and future performance. However, the rise of growth companies that do not pay dividends has altered this dynamic. Using data from S&P 100 stocks, we gathered insights on returns from dividend-paying stocks while addressing challenges like survivorship bias and data limitations. Our findings indicate a notable shift in dividend yield's reliability as a market predictor.

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The Shifting Predictive Power of Dividend Yield in Market Returns

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  1. What Happened to the Predictive Power of Dividend Yield? Big Alpha Asset Management February 24, 2000 Scott ChanDerrick RothRay TongGoodloe WhiteFrank Young

  2. Long Term Historical View • Up until 1980, dividend yield was a good predictor of future market returns…..

  3. Recent History • ….. then things changed in the 1980s.

  4. Hypothesis • While historically, dividends were a sign of future financial strength, today, the market has more growth companies that have never paid dividends contributing to returns. • So, we took out the companies that never paid dividends.

  5. Data Gathering • Simplifications were required…. • Started with S&P 100 stocks in Jan 2000 • Gathered dividend, price data for these stocks from Compustat (data only available post 1970) • Calculated annual, value-weighted return for stocks with a dividend yield greater than 0.50% • Problems • Survivorship bias • Only a proxy for the entire market • Not enough data (15 points)

  6. Results with Modified Returns • Picture was even more noisy.

  7. What is happening? • One more thought, remember…… Dividend Dividend Yield = Price

  8. Regression Results • We regressed 5-Yr Modified Market Return against all three factors:

  9. Stocks in Index

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