Changes in Source-Receptor Relations and Future Emission Scenario Development
This document discusses anticipated changes in source-receptor relationships due to evolving emission patterns, particularly focusing on NOx, SO2, and other pollutants. It outlines methodologies for constructing future emission scenarios, insights from existing emissions inventories, and the challenges posed by technological developments and legislation. The work emphasizes the importance of collaborations among various global projects and inventories to improve emission estimates, verification, and management for better air quality and climate outcomes.
Changes in Source-Receptor Relations and Future Emission Scenario Development
E N D
Presentation Transcript
Science questions • How will source-receptor relations change due to expected changes in emissions? • How should future emission scenarios be constructed?
Global emissions of NOx [million tons] Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005
2010 Emission standards for gasoline vehiclesCurrent legislation 2000 Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005
Maximum technically feasible reductions SO2 NOx BC OC Projections of global SO2, NOx, BC and OC emissionsfrom anthropogenic sources,relative to 2000 Businessas usual,with recentair qualitylegislations Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005
Currently ongoing activities • China (Hao Jiming) • EDGAR (John van Ardenne) • GEIA (Claire Granier) • EMEP (Kristin Rypdal)
Emissions Inventories Emission = Activity level x Emission Factor Type of Sources and Pollutants, for a base year • Coal combustion: SO2, NOx,CO, Hg, PM • Biomass burning: black carbon • Emissions from transportation sector: VOC, NO, PM • Industrial processes: Hg from nonferrous metal smelting and cement production • Other sources of VOCs • a guideline for developing emission inventory
QAUNTIFY Eyring Bond vd Werf Hoelzemann GEIA Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) • Emission sources: • Biofuel/fossil fuel production/combustion • Industrial processes • Agriculture • Waste • Biomass burning • Compounds: • CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases • NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2, NH3 • BC/OC 20?? 1890 1990 1995 2000 EDGAR + IIASA EDGAR + POLES EDGAR/HYDE EDGAR v3 EDGAR v2 EDGAR FT EDGAR v4 john.van-aardenne@jrc.it
Issues in emission inventories Activity data: biofuel use / biomass burning / statistics non-OECD Emission factors: emission abatement Grid maps (cm2 technical possible; data is often missing) Temporal resolution (emission by month/week/day/hour) Emission height (in which model layer is emitted?) Compound speciation (NMVOC, aerosol) Verification studies john.van-aardenne@jrc.it
Emission inventories and this task force • 1. Make use of existing work. • Do not define a new inventory but provide means for existing emissions inventories (global/regional/country/city) to exchange knowledge and improve insight. • 2. Verification of existing inventories • - Global emissions budget: (inverse studies/satellite data) • - Spatial/temporal resolution (measurement campaigns/regional modeling) • - Emission factors/speciation (local measurements) • 3. Science vs accountancy • Scientific capacity building in emission inventory development (exchange/training) • Fund accountancy work such as data mining on activity data and grid map construction for which often no scientific credits can be gained. • 1-3: How to deal with national (UNFCCC/EMEP-CORINAIR) emission inventories do we aim at independent estimates? john.van-aardenne@jrc.it
Emission inventories: a few issues Claire GRANIER Service d’Aeronomie / IPSL, Paris, France Also at: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany and CIRES/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, USA
Development of international databases • Within: • the GEIA (Global Emissions Inventory Activity) project of IGBP Co-chairs: A. Guenther (NCAR, Boulder, USA) and C. Granier • the ACCENT (Atmospheric Composition Change) European Network Version 2 of the GEIA database developed as part of ACCENT http://www.accent-network.org First (global) inventories of GEIA-2 will be released ~ June, 15 • POET (1990-2000) • RETRO (1960-2000) Tools will be soon available: • visualization • comparisons • regridding • formats
A few issues • Consistency between inventories: • gaseous/aerosols and VOCs speciation • spatial: local, regional and global • More links between communities: national/international and • international projects (organize an international workshop?) • Natural emissions • from static inventories to interactive parameterizations/models to take into account impact of meteorology, climate change and land-use change. Database of ancillary data under development within • GEIA and ACCENT (more participants welcome). • Verification of emissions • intercomparisons of inventories and input data (emission factors, activity data, fire counts/area burned, etc.) • Inverse modeling : is currently limited to a few species (CO, NO2) at the global scale. Has started to be used for local/regional • emissions. Methods still under development, an intercomparison • could be organized.
