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Pakistani Perceptions of Tehrik - i -Taliban

Pakistani Perceptions of Tehrik - i -Taliban. William Slack ws9025a@student.american.edu American University School of International Service. Research Question & Research Hypothesis.

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Pakistani Perceptions of Tehrik - i -Taliban

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  1. Pakistani Perceptions of Tehrik-i-Taliban William Slack ws9025a@student.american.edu American University School of International Service

  2. Research Question & Research Hypothesis • Research Question: Do socio-economic/identity factors impact perceptions of Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP) among members of the Pakistani population? • Research hypothesis (Ha): Controlling for socio-economic status, importance of religion and ethnic identity, higher income is associated with levels of support for TTP.

  3. Literature Review “The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan: Ideology and Beliefs”, Simon Ross Valentine • Theory: TTP has the ability to command wide support in Pakistan. • Findings : Many people see TTP as righteous in standing up to the “lapdogs” (Pakistan government) of the US. “One or many? The issue of the Taliban’s unity and disunity”, Dr. Antonio Giustozzi • Theory: The broader Taliban movement is internally nuanced and even fractured under different charismatic leaders. • Findings :TTP is portrayed to Pakistanis as the more violent, less reasonable wing, by Quetta Shura Taliban leader Mullah Omar.

  4. Data • Unit of analysis: Individual • Source of the data: Pew Global Attitudes Project 2010 • Data source reliable, approx. 2K respondents of varying age, gender, income, religious, political, etc. backgrounds. However, 30% of respondents data missing, impacts reliability. Possible reasons for lack of response is vulnerability to TTP inflicted violence or actually being a member of the group. • Dependent variable • “Perceptions of TTP” • Unit of measurement: Individual • Level of Measurement: Ordinal • Independent Variables • “Importance of Religion”- Ordinal. • “Education Level” – Ordinal. • “Income Level” – Ordinal • “Ethnicity” – Nominal. • “Internet Usage” – Nominal. • “Opinion of Equal Rights for Women” – Nominal. • “Opinion of ‘how things are’ in Pakistan” – Ordinal.

  5. Attitude Towards TTP 1 = Very Favorable 2= Somewhat Favorable 3= Somewhat Unfavorable 4= Very Unfavorable Mode: 4 N = 1,394 Favorable Opinion: 22% Unfavorable Opinion: 78% A large representative sample of the Pakistani population results in the inference that 22% of Pakistanis have a favorable view of TTP.

  6. Bivariate Analysis StatisticsDependent Variable: Attitudes towards TTP (0=Unfavorable/1=Favorable)

  7. Probit Regression Analysis, Marginal Effects. Dependent Variable: Attitude towards TTP 0=Unfavorable/1=Favorable

  8. Findings & Policy Implications • Findings: We accept the Null in part, reject in part. Income, Ethnic identity, and feelings of how things are in Pakistan are associated with levels of support for TTP. • Importance of religion is not associated. • Fewer Pashtuns support TTP. • Policy Implications: Pakistan must stop relying on mass quantities of US assistance and work to boost the health of the domestic economy. • Pakistan should work to reduce any tensions between the Pashtun and non-Pashtun population.

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