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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook May 2011 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council

U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook May 2011 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council. Macroeconomic Environment. U.S. Real GDP Growth. U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price . U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast . Civilian Unemployment Rate. U.S. Federal Budget Surplus (CBO Projection).

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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook May 2011 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council

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  1. U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookMay 2011Prepared by:Economic ServicesNational Cotton Council

  2. Macroeconomic Environment

  3. U.S. Real GDP Growth

  4. U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price

  5. U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast

  6. Civilian Unemployment Rate

  7. U.S. Federal Budget Surplus(CBO Projection)

  8. CBO Ag Baseline Spending

  9. Real GDP Growthin Selected Countries

  10. Euro(Currency per U.S. Dollar)

  11. Real Exchange Rate Index (Other Important Trade Partners, Source – Federal Reserve )

  12. Ag Prices Received Index

  13. U.S. Net Farm Income

  14. U.S. Cotton Supply

  15. December Cotton Futures Cents per Pound

  16. December Corn Futures Cents per Bushel

  17. November Soybean Futures Cents per Bushel

  18. 2011 U.S. Cotton Plantings Thousand Acres 2010 2011 % Actual Intended* Change Southeast 2,597 3,095 19.2 Mid-South 1,920 2,280 18.8 Southwest 5,886 6,488 10.2 West 366 450 23.0 ALL UPLAND10,76912,31314.3 ALL ELS 204 253 23.7 ALL COTTON 10,973 12,566 14.5 *2011 USDA Prospective Plantings

  19. 2011 U.S. Cotton Plantings Thousand Hectares 2010 2011 % Actual Intended* Change Southeast 1,051 1,253 19.2 Mid-South 777 923 18.8 Southwest 2,382 2,626 10.2 West 148 182 23.0 ALL UPLAND4,3584,98314.3 ALL ELS 83 102 23.7 ALL COTTON 4,441 5,085 14.5 *2011 USDA Prospective Plantings

  20. U.S. Cotton Production

  21. U.S. Cotton Supply

  22. U.S. Cotton Demand

  23. Net Domestic Fiber Consumption

  24. Cotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption

  25. Components of Retail Cotton Consumption

  26. U.S. Cotton Textile Imports

  27. U.S. Cotton Content in Textile Imports

  28. U.S. Trade With Mexico

  29. U.S. Trade with CBI

  30. U.S. Imports from China

  31. U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Calendar Year, Million Bales)

  32. U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Crop Year, Million Bales)

  33. U.S. Cotton Production & Use

  34. The World Market & U.S. Cotton Exports

  35. China Cotton Supply & Use

  36. World Cotton Production

  37. World Fiber Mill Use *PCI

  38. Fiber Prices

  39. World Cotton Mill Use

  40. Foreign Cotton Production & Use

  41. U.S. Cotton Exports

  42. World Cotton Ending Stocks

  43. Cotton Stocks/Use(World less China)

  44. U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Bales Beginning Stocks 2.95 1.75 Production 18.10 18.00 Imports 0.01 0.01 Total Supply 20.06 19.76 Mill Use 3.80 3.80 Exports 15.50 13.50 Total Offtake 19.30 17.30 Ending Stocks 1.75 2.50 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 9.1% 14.5% 2010/11e 2011/12p

  45. U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons Beginning Stocks 0.64 0.38 Production 3.94 3.92 Imports 0.00 0.00 Total Supply 4.59 4.31 Mill Use 0.83 0.83 Exports 3.38 2.94 Total Offtake 4.20 3.77 Ending Stocks 0.38 0.54 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 9.1% 14.5% 2010/11e 2011/12p

  46. World Supply and DemandMillion Bales 2010/11e 2011/12p Beginning Stocks 44.28 42.52 Production 114.60 124.72 Imports 37.00 39.86 Mill Use 116.51 119.50 Exports 37.00 39.87 Ending Stocks 42.52 47.93 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 36.5% 40.1%

  47. World Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons 2010/11e 2011/12p Beginning Stocks 9.65 9.26 Production 24.97 27.17 Imports 8.06 8.68 Mill Use 25.38 26.03 Exports 8.06 8.69 Ending Stocks 9.26 10.44 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 36.5% 40.1%

  48. Producers Cooperatives Warehouses Manufacturers Ginners Cottonseed Merchants

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