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Dan Leonard Senior Meteorologist, WSI dan.leonard@weather @danleonard_wx

2015/2016 Winter Outlook. Dan Leonard Senior Meteorologist, WSI dan.leonard@weather.com @danleonard_wx. Predicting Snowfall I-95 cities seasonally. 2014/2015 Verification. 2015/2016 Outlook. 2015/2016 Outlook. 2015/2016 Outlook. 2015/2016 Outlook. 2015/2016 Outlook. 2015/2016 Outlook.

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Dan Leonard Senior Meteorologist, WSI dan.leonard@weather @danleonard_wx

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  1. 2015/2016 Winter Outlook Dan Leonard Senior Meteorologist, WSI dan.leonard@weather.com @danleonard_wx

  2. Predicting Snowfall I-95 cities seasonally

  3. 2014/2015 Verification

  4. 2015/2016 Outlook

  5. 2015/2016 Outlook

  6. 2015/2016 Outlook

  7. 2015/2016 Outlook

  8. 2015/2016 Outlook

  9. 2015/2016 Outlook

  10. Super El Ninos • Strong Subtropical • Pacific Jet • Deep GOA trough • Split flow pattern over • North America

  11. Developing an Atmospheric ENSO Index Weak El Nino conditions prevailed last Summer Strong Oceanic Kelvin wave coupled with Convection MAJOR El Nino Signal

  12. Atmospheric ENSO Index by Season

  13. West vs. East Based Forcing

  14. West vs. East Based Forcing

  15. West vs. East Based Forcing

  16. West vs. East Based Forcing Convection focused near 120W, i.e. East Based

  17. SST State in the Pacific Current SST anomalies Monthly Trend

  18. 500 MB Anomaly Jan 1-10 Jan 11-21 Jan 22-31 SfcTemp Anomaly

  19. 500 MB Anomaly Jan 1-10 Jan 11-21 Jan 22-31 SfcTemp Anomaly

  20. 500 MB Anomaly Jan 1-10 Jan 11-21 Jan 22-31 SfcTemp Anomaly

  21. 500 MB Anomaly Jan 1-10 Jan 11-21 Jan 22-31 SfcTemp Anomaly

  22. The Big 3 Teleconnections vs. Demandex

  23. Demandex: Good Year vs Bad Year Demandex HDDs

  24. Demandex Correlation to ENSO Demandex Performs better in Nino winters than Nina Winters Demandex is highest in ENSO neutral years while lowest during extreme ENSO events

  25. Predicting Demandex on a Seasonal Level • Demandex is the strongest correlated teleconnection to US temps, but is it predictable on a seasonal scale? Highest Demandex Januarys Lowest Demandex Januarys

  26. Predicting Demandex on a Seasonal Level • Seems to be a slight correlation between SSTs in November, but not a smoking gun Nov SSTs before Highest ddex Jans Nov SSTs before Lowest ddex Jans

  27. Predicting Demandex on a Seasonal Level • NOV cool pool aligns with January Trough; Warm pool with AK ridge November SSTs Following January Pattern

  28. Predicting Demandex on a Seasonal Level • NOV cool pool aligns with January Trough; Warm pool with AK ridge November SSTs Following January Pattern

  29. Predicting Demandex on a Seasonal Level • 50mb Heights appear to be a good leading indicator of Jan Demandex Oct/Nov Stratosphere before Highest January demandex Oct/Nov Stratosphere before Lowest January demandex

  30. Predicting Demandex on a Seasonal Level

  31. Predicting Demandex on a Seasonal Level • Demandex has a positive correlation to the Quasi-Biannual Oscillation (QBO) • In years with a strong Oct-Nov stratospheric polar vortex and a +QBO, probability of +DDEX Jan is very high • In years with a weak and/or displaced Oct/Nov vortex and a –QBO, probability of a –DDEX Jan is very high • In years with a mixed signal, QBO can offset an unfavorable Stratosphere (05/06 weak vortex but –QBO; 08/09 strong vortex but +QBO

  32. Case Study: Winter 2014/15

  33. Case Study: Winter 2014/15

  34. State of the Stratosphere Oct so far D+15 Now • Weak/displaced vortex now, but forecast to strengthen dramatically and move toward pole over next 2 weeks

  35. State of the North Pacific

  36. Possible Outcome: Winter 2014/15

  37. 2015/2016 Winter Outlook Dan Leonard Senior Meteorologist, WSI dleonard@weather.com @danleonard_wx

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