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Reduced-Form Economic Consequence Estimating Tool: Earthquakes

Reduced-Form Economic Consequence Estimating Tool: Earthquakes. Adam Rose (PI) and Nat Heatwole (Co-PI & Research Transition Lead) 1/5/15. Project Objectives. Research goals rapidly estimate economic consequences of hazard events using simple and transparent, yet defensible, models

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Reduced-Form Economic Consequence Estimating Tool: Earthquakes

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  1. Reduced-Form Economic Consequence Estimating Tool: Earthquakes Adam Rose (PI) and Nat Heatwole (Co-PI & Research Transition Lead) 1/5/15

  2. Project Objectives • Research goals • rapidly estimate economic consequences of hazard events using simple and transparent, yet defensible, models • provide this loss estimation capability in a compact, user-friendly software tool • Research transition goals • ensure reduced-form earthquake tool is transitioned to the maximum number of users • expand reduced-form modeling approach to other types of hazards

  3. DHS Interest and Motivation • Why DHS would be interested • rapid loss estimates for resource mobilization (ex post) or benefit-cost analyses (ex ante) • minimal user inputs • straightforward outputs & uncertainty bands • Potential DHS contact agencies • Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) • Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) • state/local first responders & emergency management officials

  4. Potential non-DHS Stakeholders • Federal agencies • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) • U.S. Depts. of Agriculture, Defense, Interior, & Transportation • U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) • U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) • State/local agencies • California Earthquake Authority • California Emergency Management Agency • California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services • Los Angeles Dept. of Water and Power (LADWP) • Others • academics/researchers • insurance firms

  5. Interfaces to Related Research • Others working on this • U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Prompt Analysis of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program • Interfaces with others in this field • reduced-form modeling approach used: • by Rose, Heatwole, Dixon et al. in a CREATE report to the U.S. Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) • by Heatwole in a statistical analysis of economic cost of non-fatal injuries in terrorist attacks

  6. Research Technical Plan • Use data from SHELDUS (Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the U.S.); supplement with primary data from media reports • Formulate reduced-form model of property damage in major U.S. earthquakes as function of: • hazard-related variables (e.g., Richter magnitude) • exposure-related variables (e.g., population, income) • Choose predictor variables for model using step-wise regression analysis

  7. Research Transition Plan • Work with Erroll & DHS to identify potential users - FEMA contacts - Professor Bill Siembieda for California contacts - NGOs (e.g., Red Cross, World Bank) • Improve presentation of Rapid EQ Tool - improve statistical fit - provide back-cast estimates of actual events • Present model to customers • Complete work on tornado example

  8. Milestones and Schedule/Timeline

  9. Screenshot from Tool

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