Flood Warning in Bavaria, Germany

1. Flood Warningin Bavaria, Germany Alfons VogelbacherBavarian Environment Agency – on behalf of GIZ Organization and Products Data, Dataflow and Data Base Flood Forecast & Uncertainty Dr. Alfons VogelbacherBavarian Environment Agencyalfons.vogelbacher@lfu.bayern.de

2. Bavaria population 12.5 million area 70,550 km2 administration 7 district governments, 71 counties 25 self-administered towns 2056 communities state capital Munich

4. winter (spring) floods mixed regime of winter and summer floods alpine regime summer floods Flood regimes in Bavaria

5. Mai 1999

6. Loisach im Bereich Murnauer Moos Foto: LfU

7. Hochwasserschäden in Eschenlohe /Loisach Foto:LfU

8. Iller bei Sonthofen Foto: WWA Kempten

9. Bavarian Action Programm 2001 – 2020& EU Floods Directive in 2007 - 2015 • prevention, protection, preparedness, incl. flood forecast and early warning • the promotion of sustainable land use practices, the improvement of water retention and the controlled flooding of certain areas • taking into account the costs and benefits • comprehensive consideration of soil and water management, spatial planning, land use, nature conservation, navigation and port infrastructure

10. Organization & Dissemination

12. www.hnd.bayern.de

13. Mobile Web Site (m.hnd.bayern.de)

14. Waterlevel vs. Flood Risk & Measures

15. Manageable Flood Polders Retention Volume: at least 30 Mill. m³ until 2020 7 locations in plan

16. Mobile Flood Protection Wall

17. Online Maps (www.iug.bayern.de) • Contents • designated flood areas • preliminary assured flood areas • water depth (HQ100) • different scenarios • past floods (areas) • areas under the impact of water (input from soil maps) • link to flood warning service (HND) • Functions • download of regulations • unlimited map scaling • optional background • WMS possibilities • … • updated online-version: • 2010

18. Flood Risk Map Contents and layout supplementary sheet • Potential adverse consequences on the • indicative number of inhabitants • economic activity • environment • cultural assets

20. Flood Warning System Real-Time Data Collection Polled Systems (Actively Sampling)NFS File TransferFTP & http-request On-Line Data Base MetadataWaterlevel &DischargeMeteodata Automated Products ForecastsMapsBulletins Product / Data Dissemination WarningsWWWFTPE-Mails, SMS Clients PublicEmergencyLocal GovWater Auth.Others Hydromet InputNWPSnowforecast RadarMeteorologists Analysis & Modeling Hydrological ModelingFlood Risk Assessment Fig. based on: Elliot J., R. Catchlove, S. Sooriuyakumaran and R. Thompson (2005)

21. Realtime Data Collection • Station with Data Sampler and Telemetry • Polling of stations by Computer (SODA) or active via ISDN or GSM • NFS File Transfer to Central Master Database • Replication of the Master Database to local databases

22. Waterlevel & Discharge • Gauging Stations • approx. 600 • Remote data transmission (560 in operation) • Redundance (approx. 200 in operation) • Tasks • Structural improvement to highten the measurement range • Improvement of discharge measurement • Increase of measurements during floods

23. On-Line Data Base Data Base (MySQL) • Metadata: gauging-stations, meteo-stations, precipitation-stations, recorded message, data transfer, statistics, level-discharge curves, flood stages, warning levels, flood-risk plans etc. • Reports: flood bulletins, warnings • Dissemination plan: adresses (3991), messages (1525) • Data: Waterlever & Discharge (1077) with Forecasts (184) Meteo: • Preciptiation (919) • Snowfall Level (627) • Water Equivalent of Snow (377) • Atmospheric pressure (71) • Global Radiaton (191) • relative Air Humidity (406) • Sunshine Duration (92) • Air Temperature (511) • Dew Point Temperature (148) • Wind Velocity (365) • Snowmelt and Rain from SNOW4 1km x 1km • Water Equivalent of the Snow Cover from SNOW4 1km x 1km

24. River basin models with rainfall-runoff and flood-routing components LARSIM (Baden Württemberg, Bavaria, Rhineland Palatine) Hydrodynamic models (1D - hydraulic models) WAVOS: Rhine, Elbe, Odra, MainFLUX/FLORIS: Inn, Lech, Danube Forecast System

25. River Basin Models connected to Hydrodynamic Models (green Lines)

26. lead time based on travel time from upstream gauges lead time based on measured precipitation lead time based on precipitation forecasts Uncertainty in Forecast vs. Lead Time

27. Forecast Result from Meteorol. Ensemble Forecast

28. Forecast with Uncertainty Range in the Web

29. Catchment area of reservoir AE = 1138 km² Catchment area at Munich AE = 1676 km² Precipitation stations and gauges with remote data transmission Reservoir SYLVENSTEIN AREA OF INTEREST München Hydrological network Puppling Bayern Beuerberg Weilheim Bad Tölz Lenggries Schlehdorf Kochelsee Auslauf Sylvensteinspeicher Eschenlohe Rißbachdüker Garmisch Partenkirchen Rißbachklamm Mittenwald Österreich

30. MAIN DATA: Construction 1954 - 1959 Catchment area 1138 km² Maximum storage level 767 mNN Normal storage level 752 mNN Minimum storage level 736,40 mNN Total storage volume 124 Mio m³ Surface at max. level 6,61 km² Surface at normal level 3,92 km²

31. Sylvenstein Reservoir Flood 2005 Reduction of peak inflow by 690 m²/s Retentionvolume 52 Mio. m³

32. Forggensee Reservoir Flood 2005

33. Isar in Bad Tölz Thank you for your attention!